Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2025 30 January 2025 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith …sensitivity has increased in recent months to its highest level since the Brexit referendum. This is consistent with the idea that continued weak macroeconomic performance and high debt have increased… READ MORE
Eurocrat poker faces and pay puzzles Top of the charts 24 January 2025 …if you want to learn more. Something for the Weekend? | Happy birthday Brexit! Next Friday marks five years since the UK left the EU – clink your flutes/drown your… READ MORE
Why you should all care about inequality Top of the Charts 17 January 2025 …the financial crisis, the UK came close to shared growth, with income growth averaging 2 per cent a year across almost the whole range. Finally, the austerity-Brexit-pandemic years, gave us… READ MORE
Anti-ageing in Britain and why tariffs strike a bum note Top of the charts 10 January 2025 …this, we can blame a baby bust, and Brexit. The capital’s birth rate fell twice as fast as the national average between the 2000s and the 2020s (although with more… READ MORE
A baby bust and Brexit mean that London is the only major city in Britain that’s getting older 8 January 2025 …and 2023. This divergence between trends in London and other large UK cities appears to be driven by both Brexit and a ‘baby bust’, says the author. The boom in… READ MORE
Trading blows How should Britain buy and sell in a turbulent world? 4 December 2024 by Emily Fry and Sophie Hale Recently the UK has faced tough times in trade, juggling twin shocks of Brexit and Covid. While service exports have stayed strong, goods trade has struggled. With a possible further… READ MORE
Looking forward to tax cuts, backward to better schools, and upward to Croydon Top of the charts 29 November 2024 …surfed the crest of the NICE decade, while Phil Hammond was preoccupied with Brexit in 2017). Savvy Chancellors aim for big tax rises at the start of the parliament (anyone… READ MORE
From opportunity hoarding to cheese hoarding Top of the charts 22 November 2024 …injury – we learn that British cheesemakers missed out on World Cheese Awards after their entries were delayed due to post-Brexit custom checks. Cheddar luck next time! Lax tax. As… READ MORE
Trade in the age of Trumponomics Navigating Britain’s trade in a post-Brexit, intra-Trump world Wednesday 4 December 2024 British firms are still adjusting to the Brexit shock that has affected UK firms’ ability to trade with our biggest trading partner bloc. Now a new shock is looming from… READ MORE
The Government doubles down on the UK’s superpower in services 14 October 2024 by Greg Thwaites …where traditional manufacturing exports face challenges: global trade in services is expected to rise faster than trade in goods over the next decade; and Brexit has hit UK goods exports… READ MORE
Brexit & trade EU-turn Resetting the UK-EU relationship through strategic dynamic alignment 9 October 2024 by Sophie Hale …to 8 per cent to outside the EU. This modelling estimated the long-run impacts of Brexit, but other recent research has found that trade continued to adjust to Brexit between… READ MORE
A new ‘pro-growth’ UK-EU relationship will require both closer alignment and managed divergence 9 October 2024 …accounting for close to half of the long-term economic damage from Brexit, the economic prize for resetting relations could still be substantial. The Government has already announced its plans for… READ MORE
The perils of parental leave and the de-growth doldrums Top of the charts 4 October 2024 …the 2008 financial crisis, not counting Brexit or the mini-budget) could increase the growth rate of GDP by 0.1 percentage points – a small but still worthwhile amount. So with… READ MORE
Brexit & trade Rebooting Brexit Opportunities and challenges from resetting UK-EU trade relations Wednesday 9 October 2024 Britain has left the EU almost five years ago, and the economic damage – particularly when it comes to trade – is now clear. The new Government has put resetting… READ MORE
The real value of Britain’s roads, railways and office gossips Top of the charts 27 September 2024 …in all, it’s a strong factual grounding for policy discussions around the relationship between alcohol consumption and harmful outcomes. Selling services. Do you remember all that talk of the Brexit… READ MORE
Government’s economic reforms mark a good start on its stretching growth target, but leave much more to do 19 September 2024 …the EU, and reducing some of the post-Brexit trade frictions that have led to the UK’s goods trade falling by 10.6 per cent compared with pre-Brexit levels, in contrast to… READ MORE
Labour market backdrop to the election is average weekly wages growing by just £16 since 2010, as parties take contrasting approaches to work in their manifestos 25 June 2024 …pay squeeze. Despite the welcome return of strong real wage growth in recent months, three shocks to pay packets in a little over a decade – the financial crisis, Brexit… READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections Growing for gold? Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Labour Manifesto 14 June 2024 by Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Emily Fry and Tara Goatley and Charlie McCurdy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try …given that, since 2010, we’ve had Brexit, nine business secretaries, seven sets of fiscal rules, and almost annual changes to corporation tax. But the manifesto also includes a suite of… READ MORE
Brexit & trade Britain needs to acknowledge rather than deny its weaknesses in goods trade, and leverage its strength in services 13 May 2024 by Emily Fry …this House cause for celebration and renewed pride in our country,” arguing that the post-Brexit trade performance of both goods and services was something to phone home about. So, should… READ MORE
UK continues to shine in its services exports, while goods trade disappoints 10 May 2024 …goods trade, which is down 19 per cent on its pre-Brexit trend, and relative to other advanced economies. In contrast, the UK has maintained its strong international position on services… READ MORE
Economy 2030· Cities and regions A new Economic Strategy for Britain How can Oxford help drive equitable economic growth? Tuesday 23 April 2024 This event was in Oxford. Economic growth in the UK has been sluggish ever since the global financial crisis. More recent large-scale disruptions caused by Brexit and Covid-19 have created… READ MORE
Brexit & trade Britain’s post-Brexit trade patterns are finally emerging in the data 28 February 2024 by Emily Fry …But just as you might conclude that Brexit has been a disaster for trade, UK services trade is soaring. Services trade was growing quicker than goods long before Brexit –… READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Brexit & trade Trading standards How exposure to global trade shapes our living standards Monday 19 February 2024 Britain is an open economy, and has become more open over recent decades – despite the impact of Brexit and ‘slowbalisation’. But the quantity and type of goods and services… READ MORE
French building failures, growing generational divides, and fixing Britain’s future Top of the Charts 9 February 2024 …coming election, partly because Brexit – an issue that divided generations – won’t be centre-stage. It’s also because, although the young overall have swing towards Labour like all other age… READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Poll Position How intergenerational voting intentions have changed since the 2019 General Election 7 February 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Sophie Hale …elections: Brexit loomed large, an issue with distinctly age-divided views. This note investigates where we are now, picking out five big intergenerational shifts that have occurred since the last general… READ MORE