Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2020 20 February 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie …While much attention has been heaped upon the link between Brexit uncertainty and weak investment, it is striking that households have become more cautious of late, with consumption accounting for… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Breaking the rules Analysing the credibility of the Chancellor’s commitment to keep to his fiscal rules 31 August 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell …basis the UK may leave the EU is also highly questionable. The impact of different Brexit scenarios on the size of our economy should help policy makers decide how much… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Super, smashing, great: Spring Statement 2019 response 14 March 2019 …were predicated on an increasingly questionable assumption of an orderly Brexit on 29 March meant they were at risk of being out of date before the Chancellor even stood up…. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Inequality & poverty· Economy and public finances Is rising inequality helping to swell the coffers for Fortunate Phil? 12 March 2019 by Torsten Bell …But it’s really because everyone knows Brexit votes this week will overshadow the Spring Statement as deciding our country’s future trumps forecasting it. On the economics, at first glance ‘luck’… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spring Forward or Fall Back? The questions facing the UK economy ahead of the Spring Statement 2019 4 March 2019 by Matthew Whittaker …policy front too. Parliamentarians are likely to be somewhat distracted next Wednesday, voting on Brexit to decide our economic future rather than focusing on forecasts of it. The fact that… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Hitting the books: student loans and the public finances 16 December 2018 by Matthew Whittaker …a no deal Brexit, or to provide more funds for public services once it becomes clear that a deal has been struck – one part of an anticipated double “deal… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Pessimism, Politics and Economics: the real Budget story 2 November 2018 by James Smith …the risk of a disorderly Brexit, particularly if the scope for looser monetary policy is limited. Even if the risk of such a scenario is small (although a poll of… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare How to spend it: Autumn 2018 Budget response 30 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker …end, austerity. There will be tougher choices for Chancellors in the years ahead, however. Brexit must be delivered smoothly, public spending will remain tight, forecasts may not always be so… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax The Chancellor may have one arm tied behind his back, but there are still tax levers he can pull 21 October 2018 by Adam Corlett How can a government with a tenuous majority, an intra-party feud and Brexit uncertainty find the money to ‘end austerity’ on top of more than £20 billion a year it… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Despite ‘the end of austerity’, April promises another deep benefit cut 17 October 2018 by Adam Corlett …a limited impact in its first two years. But with the Brexit vote and resultant price increases, CPI inflation reached 3 per cent in September 2017. Normally, that September figure… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The OBR on Brexit: known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns cast shadow over the Budget 11 October 2018 by James Smith As if Philip Hammond’s job over the next few weeks wasn’t tough enough already, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this morning has published its thinking on how Brexit will… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Five charts to chill the Chancellor’s blood ahead of the Budget 28 September 2018 by Matthew Whittaker …in June, to the not-insignificant matter of managing our Brexit transition and contending with the UK’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio in four decades. But what about the underlying state of the… READ MORE
Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Inequality & poverty· Economy and public finances Should the Office for Budget Responsibility also forecast inequality? 2 March 2018 by Adam Corlett The strengths and weaknesses of economic forecasting are under scrutiny, perhaps like never before. How might GDP perform under different Brexit policies compared to a world with no Brexit? Is… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances It’s time to stop feeling sorry for the Chancellor – there’s no excuse for a do nothing Budget 20 November 2017 by Torsten Bell …that crisis gave his premiership a sense of purpose and its greatest hour. For all the divisions over Brexit, there are now the outlines of just such a new national… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economy and public finances Hammond’s goal in this Budget should be to restart the productivity engine 20 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker …business uncertainty (stemming first from the financial crisis fall-out and more recently from Brexit) acting as a barrier to long-term planning. Given that productivity growth effectively represents free money, governments… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Intergenerational Centre How Philip Hammond can strike a blow for intergenerational fairness in his Budget 13 November 2017 by Laura Gardiner …the post-Brexit deal. But rather this use this to justify a steady as she goes affair, we’re told it will be a ‘bold’ and ‘revolutionary’ Budget. So what’s he going… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare· Intergenerational Centre A Budget for intergenerational fairness? 10 November 2017 by Laura Gardiner Beyond facing down expected economic downgrades and clarifying the direction on Brexit, resetting the agenda on intergenerational fairness has emerged as a top priority for the Chancellor in this month’s… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Let it go Chancellor. Why Philip Hammond should revisit the benefit freeze in next month’s Budget 15 October 2017 by David Finch …(£780). With the first Autumn Budget fast approaching, does the Chancellor have time to change course? Having reset the fiscal rules in readiness for Brexit, he came out of the… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances This Budget will be a walk in the park for the Chancellor, but there are still mountains to climb 6 March 2017 by Torsten Bell …Philip Hammond remain significant. On borrowing Brexiteers will, with some justification, herald improvements as a sign that the gloom of the Autumn was overdone. But they should be cautious. The… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Intergenerational Centre A Spring Budget for young, old and those in between? 6 March 2017 by Laura Gardiner …a key task for those shaping the politics and economics of post-Brexit Britain. Wednesday’s update from the Chancellor will give us the latest picture on both fronts. This post originally… READ MORE
Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Autumn Statement debate has focused on the public finances – but the impact on family Budgets is just as stark 24 November 2016 by Torsten Bell …decision to leave the EU unveiled. In short the Office for Budget Responsibility thinks the Brexit vote is expensive – coming with a price tag of an extra £59bn of… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Resolution Foundation reaction to Autumn Statement 2016 23 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker £59bn impact of Brexit and Chancellor’s decision to increase investment spending drive £122bn extra borrowing Philip Hammond chooses not to support just about managing families who face a double whammy… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Tax· Intergenerational Centre Inheritances and gifts: The generational challenge facing the Chancellor at this week’s Autumn Statement 21 November 2016 by Laura Gardiner …who claim that the Brexit decision was imposed by an older generation, insulated from its effects, onto a younger one. When it comes to Brexit at least, we’re all in… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Tax Will the Chancellor replace employer National Insurance with a payroll levy? 5 October 2016 by Adam Corlett …Chancellor, the economic implications of the Brexit vote and the resetting of fiscal policy for the rest of the parliament, there will be plenty to watch out for. But despite… READ MORE
