Monetary policy· Economy and public finances· Tax· Macroeconomic policy· Political parties and elections Talking tax What’s been said and what’s gone unsaid in the Conservative leadership election? 26 July 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett Elections are rarely entirely about a single issue, but there are exceptions. Brexit in the 2019 general election stands out, and today tax cuts totally dominate the 2022 Conservative leadership… READ MORE
Economy and public finances Chatting to Chancellors Book launch for The Chancellors by Howard Davies, featuring former Chancellor George Osborne Monday 30 May 2022 …and play a key role in the Brexit debate. The Treasury – and the Chancellors who have led it – have not had a quiet quarter of a century. How… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2020 20 February 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie …While much attention has been heaped upon the link between Brexit uncertainty and weak investment, it is striking that households have become more cautious of late, with consumption accounting for… READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Oven-ready, safety-first Assessing the Conservatives' 2019 manifesto 24 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Brexit is happening, but big tax cuts aren’t. That’s the short version of the already fairly short Conservative Manifesto. This manifesto does not tell us much about what the… READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Dealing with ‘no deal’ The economic policy response to a ‘no deal’ Brexit 19 September 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report provides a framework for understanding what role macroeconomic policy can play in alleviating the economic impact of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. It provides an estimate of the impact… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Breaking the rules Analysing the credibility of the Chancellor’s commitment to keep to his fiscal rules 31 August 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell …basis the UK may leave the EU is also highly questionable. The impact of different Brexit scenarios on the size of our economy should help policy makers decide how much… READ MORE
Public spending· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Another summer blockbuster (on fiscal risks) from the OBR 18 July 2019 by Richard Hughes …most timely and interesting ones are on the potential fiscal consequences of three grand challenges for the UK over the next decade: Brexit, climate change, and debt. Halloween 2019:… READ MORE
Economy and public finances Phil ‘Bullseye’ Hammond told MPs what they ‘could’ve won’ – if only they didn’t stuff up Brexit 14 March 2019 by Torsten Bell …the Chancellor was channelling in his Spring Statement, setting out just what MP’s “could’ve won” – or might still win – if they back a Brexit deal. We’ve got the… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Super, smashing, great: Spring Statement 2019 response 14 March 2019 …were predicated on an increasingly questionable assumption of an orderly Brexit on 29 March meant they were at risk of being out of date before the Chancellor even stood up…. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Inequality & poverty· Economy and public finances Is rising inequality helping to swell the coffers for Fortunate Phil? 12 March 2019 by Torsten Bell …But it’s really because everyone knows Brexit votes this week will overshadow the Spring Statement as deciding our country’s future trumps forecasting it. On the economics, at first glance ‘luck’… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spring Forward or Fall Back? The questions facing the UK economy ahead of the Spring Statement 2019 4 March 2019 by Matthew Whittaker …policy front too. Parliamentarians are likely to be somewhat distracted next Wednesday, voting on Brexit to decide our economic future rather than focusing on forecasts of it. The fact that… READ MORE
Economy and public finances Spring in our step or long winter ahead? The UK economy on Brexit eve Monday 4 March 2019 …But looking into the future poses challenges for any forecaster wrestling with the recent growth slowdown and the uncertainty of what form Brexit will eventually take. Is the UK economy… READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Economy and public finances As growth slows UK households have already taken a £1,500 living standards hit since the referendum 11 February 2019 by Torsten Bell …not just the fact of Brexit dragging on growth and incomes. The long-run impact of Brexit on our economy will of course depend on what we eventually agree by way… READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances Counting the cost: UK living standards since the 2016 referendum 11 February 2019 by James Smith Household incomes are around £1,500 year lower today than they were expected to be before the Brexit referendum – with the UK having experienced the sharpest income growth slowdown of… READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economy and public finances The Economic Outlook: Speech by MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe Thursday 14 February 2019 …MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe on the UK’s economic outlook. In his speech Jan discussed the implications of the evolution of the global economy as well as Brexit-related developments for the… READ MORE
Economy and public finances British politics beyond Brexit: Where are the Conservatives heading? Thursday 7 February 2019 Brexit is dominating our politics, but there will be politics beyond Brexit. New domestic policy issues will force their way back onto the agenda, and old ones – including those… READ MORE
Economy and public finances British politics beyond Brexit: Where are Labour heading? Monday 11 February 2019 Brexit is dominating our politics, but there will be politics beyond Brexit. New domestic policy issues will force their way back onto the agenda, and old ones – including those… READ MORE
Economy and public finances Back to the future on Brexit: Digging deep into how Britain came to leave Wednesday 6 February 2019 Book launch for ‘A Short History of Brexit’ by Kevin O’ Rourke The UK’s decision to leave the European Union may have come as a surprise to some, but it… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Hitting the books: student loans and the public finances 16 December 2018 by Matthew Whittaker …a no deal Brexit, or to provide more funds for public services once it becomes clear that a deal has been struck – one part of an anticipated double “deal… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Pessimism, Politics and Economics: the real Budget story 2 November 2018 by James Smith …the risk of a disorderly Brexit, particularly if the scope for looser monetary policy is limited. Even if the risk of such a scenario is small (although a poll of… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare How to spend it: Autumn 2018 Budget response 30 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker …end, austerity. There will be tougher choices for Chancellors in the years ahead, however. Brexit must be delivered smoothly, public spending will remain tight, forecasts may not always be so… READ MORE
Economy and public finances Budget special: Debt, bad bosses and a 31bn pound question Top of the Charts 26 October 2018 …the run-in to the Brexit vote. And it certainly won’t be as rammed full of politically difficult policy choices as you’d normally expect of a Budget less than 18 months… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax The Chancellor may have one arm tied behind his back, but there are still tax levers he can pull 21 October 2018 by Adam Corlett How can a government with a tenuous majority, an intra-party feud and Brexit uncertainty find the money to ‘end austerity’ on top of more than £20 billion a year it… READ MORE
Economy and public finances Light at the end of the tunnel? Will it be an ‘end of austerity’ Budget Wednesday 24 October 2018 …just delivering Brexit? At an event at its Westminster headquarters, the Resolution Foundation presented the key findings from its pre-Budget report – which highlighted some of the challenges and trade-offs… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The OBR on Brexit: known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns cast shadow over the Budget 11 October 2018 by James Smith As if Philip Hammond’s job over the next few weeks wasn’t tough enough already, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this morning has published its thinking on how Brexit will… READ MORE
