Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2026 24 August 2026 by Stephen Hunsaker and Simon Pittaway …wage stagnation that followed. On the whole, the 2020s have been no better. Repeated shocks – Covid, Brexit and the war in Ukraine – have left Britain facing another level… READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2025 12 September 2025 by James Smith …Brexit – gilt yields have become more sensitive to changes in investor sentiment as proxied by changes in Treasury yields (the dots in Figure 6 show higher frequency co-movement around… READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2025 30 January 2025 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith …sensitivity has increased in recent months to its highest level since the Brexit referendum. This is consistent with the idea that continued weak macroeconomic performance and high debt have increased… READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q4 2022 10 December 2022 by Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and James Smith …factors that could push against global deflationary pressures. First, implementing Brexit has had a clear impact on UK prices by making it more difficult to import from the EU; food… READ MORE
Monetary policy· Public finances· Tax· Macroeconomic policy· Political parties and elections Talking tax What’s been said and what’s gone unsaid in the Conservative leadership election? 26 July 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett Elections are rarely entirely about a single issue, but there are exceptions. Brexit in the 2019 general election stands out, and today tax cuts totally dominate the 2022 Conservative leadership… READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Together we stand, divided we fall? Is multilateral policy making equipped for the global economic challenges we face? Thursday 28 April 2022 …Brexit, the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict. Have lessons been learned from the global co-ordination around the financial crisis and the roll out of Covid-19 vaccines, or has the rise… READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy From Covid to conflict New economic policy challenges for an uncertain world Thursday 28 April 2022 …The series will kick off with an event on Thursday 28th April assessing the state of multilateral economic policy making in the wake of Brexit, the pandemic and the Ukraine… READ MORE
Growth· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q4 2020 28 December 2020 by James Smith and Torsten Bell and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Nye Cominetti …of waiting to see what the year ahead holds before making policy decisions. We focus on the pandemic and its aftermath given that the last-minute arrival of a Brexit deal… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2020 20 February 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie …While much attention has been heaped upon the link between Brexit uncertainty and weak investment, it is striking that households have become more cautious of late, with consumption accounting for… READ MORE
Public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Treasury and Bank of England should prepare for a three-pronged economic shock from ‘no deal’ 1 October 2019 by Jack Leslie It’s a well-worn trope that no one knows what the economic impact of a no deal Brexit would be. And for good reason. The scale of disruption at the border,… READ MORE
Public finances· Macroeconomic policy Dealing with ‘no deal’ The economic policy response to a ‘no deal’ Brexit 19 September 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report provides a framework for understanding what role macroeconomic policy can play in alleviating the economic impact of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. It provides an estimate of the impact… READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Is the UK recession ready? 9 September 2019 by Torsten Bell …risk indicator is at its highest since the financial crisis – as a global growth slowdown combines with Brexit uncertainty here at home. Whenever it turns up the key question… READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The UK is not recession ready 9 September 2019 …crisis, are not necessary in the UK today. The Foundation says that while the government is likely to be fully consumed by Brexit and Budget planning in the coming months,… READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Dealing with ‘No Deal’ What should the Chancellor and Governor do? Thursday 19 September 2019 …maintaining medical supplies to bolstering border controls. But the Treasury and the Bank of England also need to prepare a macroeconomic response to a ‘No Deal’ Brexit. What impact might… READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework Monday 9 September 2019 The UK economy is facing its highest risk of recession since 2007, as Brexit uncertainty and global instability loom large. When the next downturn will arrive is impossible to say,… READ MORE
Public finances· Macroeconomic policy Another summer blockbuster (on fiscal risks) from the OBR 18 July 2019 by Richard Hughes …most timely and interesting ones are on the potential fiscal consequences of three grand challenges for the UK over the next decade: Brexit, climate change, and debt. Halloween 2019:… READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Bank has acted, but the real drama is yet to come 4 August 2016 by Matthew Whittaker …longer-term, our economic performance rests on the post-Brexit picture on trade, competition and – crucially – productivity. Influencing those outcomes largely rests with Downing, not Threadneedle, Street. It’s that reality… READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Bank will bring out its sledgehammer this week – but it needs to explain which nut it’s trying to crack 2 August 2016 by Torsten Bell …Britain being poorer post-Brexit. Instead it must target the delicate nut of any demand slowdown that goes beyond the necessary adjustment to post-Brexit reality. Yes it’s rational for firms and… READ MORE
Public finances· Macroeconomic policy Responsibility for avoiding a post-Brexit downturn rests as much with our politicians as our economists 18 July 2016 by Matthew Whittaker …Mark Carney’s statement on 30 June that post-Brexit “deterioration” in the economic outlook meant that “some monetary policy easing [would] be required over the Summer”. But far from signalling a… READ MORE
