Afternoon all, It’s less than two weeks till the Budget and we’ve published our take on the key decisions – and constraints – facing Chancellor Healey. If you don’t have time for all 50 pages, we’ve got your primer in Something for the weekend, and a fresh podcast dropping next week. Budget enthusiasts should also … Continued

Morning all, We’ve nearly reached the end of party conference season – and I managed to avoid karaoke throughout. We had brilliant audiences at all our party conference events, so thank you to everyone who made up a part of them. Conference season not withstanding, we’ve been busy at RF towers recently as we gear … Continued

Afternoon all, Generational warfare continues. This week, I wrote a Substack for Politics UK on how we could tip the balance a bit more in favour of the young. And then in the latest episode of our High Resolution podcast (subscribe!) we debated whether the triple lock’s time had come. Our two brilliant guests brought … Continued

Afternoon all, We’ve had plenty of numbers to crunch this week, with new insights on (slowing) pay growth, (accelerating) inflation and a worrying cost of living outlook from the Bank of England – more on all that in our Chart of the week and Something for the weekend. Certainly not an easy context in which … Continued

Afternoon all, From bond market turmoil to AI wiping out humanity, it’s been a rather depressing week. So, I’m pleased to bring you some optimism, keep reading for why not to worry about greedflation, and why progress might have been bigger than previously measured. We’ve also invented a brilliant new chart to celebrate – a … Continued

Afternoon all, Roll up, roll up, we’ve got a policy announcement bonanza for you. The first week of Burnham’s premiership certainly wasn’t short of news. But where does it leave us? The biggest by far was the 5% VAT cut on energy bills, with a £2 bus fare cap also aimed at providing ‘breathing room’ … Continued

Afternoon all, What do Take That, Dua Lipa and Little Mix all have in common? Their fans favour Reform more than other parties (according to fun More in Common polling). I guess in August we will find out whether Farage is back for good or if Binface rule(s) the world. Alongside rubbish jokes, regional inequality is flavour of the … Continued

Afternoon all, Is there such a thing as an UN-lucky DIP? The long-delayed Defence Investment Plan landed this week, creating a headache for our PM-in-waiting: Andy says he will stick with the fiscal rule that the current budget will be balanced in 29-30, and the DIP is a £2 billion hit against that rule. That, and the small matter of the effects of the Iran war, … Continued

Afternoon all, Whether it’s football or politics, the real battle now kicks off. Andy Burnham’s decisive victory at Makerfield all but guarantees a few febrile weeks, or maybe months, of political manoeuvring. Meanwhile, some of us will be staying up late tonight to see whether Scotland can secure a historic move beyond the group stages. … Continued

Afternoon all, Worried that AI is thinning our language and destroying our ability to learn? Well I have good news – not yet. It was a pleasure to host the launches for two fantastic books this week, both rich in humanity, story-telling and knowledge. Soumaya Keynes and Chad Brown have written the definitive guide to trade that … Continued

Afternoon all, Even after two thousand years, “bread and circuses” has not gone out of fashion as a political strategy. Having discovered that fixing the price of bread is not so easy, the Chancellor has taken 50p off a happy meal and £4 off a ticket to Chessington World of Adventures with her feel good … Continued

Afternoon all, As thunder rumbles over Westminster, the battle for ideas over how to govern Britain has begun. Yuan Yang MP joined us yesterday, with Sir John Curtice and Tom McTague, to discuss a government reset – along with our own report on what it might take to lift living standards. I can safely say our panel … Continued

Morning all, If you’re in the market for some pub-quiz-winning trivia, as the results roll in keep an eye on whether Labour’s defeat in the local elections is even more sizeable than the Conservative’s losses in 2019, when 1,300 seats fell out of their control, a loss of more than a quarter (27 per cent) … Continued

Afternoon all, Parliament’s prorogued, the sun is shining, and interest rates are holding steady. I’d say we’re in for a restful long weekend, except for, you know… The Bank of England shared their predictions for the economy this week – taking into account the war in the Middle East. It’s a triple-whammy of bad news. Higher inflation, higher interest … Continued

Morning all, Amidst… war, plotting and scandal a bumper week of economic data, there were once again (*sticks fingers in ears and pretends war isn’t happening*) nuggets of good news. I wouldn’t be surprised if you missed the latest data on private rent inflation. Happily, it’s not surging in advance of the Renter’s Rights Act with inflation on new lets … Continued

Afternoon all, What could have been, eh? With GDP rising at 0.5% in February, unemployment falling in January and borrowing coming in below forecast, the economic backdrop to Spring could have been so different. But trouble over the water continues to derail this Government in more ways than one….and it was fascinating to hear Jeremy Hunt’s honest reflections on dealing with an energy price shock at … Continued

Afternoon all, Hopefully the presence of this email in your inbox on a Thursday renders it an honorary Friday, to help you ring in the long weekend. Energy bills are still in the news, and this week’s Chart of the week shows exactly who will pay the steepest price when the next shock hits. Spoiler: … Continued

Afternoon all, Housing’s been on my mind this week. Private renters face the highest housing costs. For many social housing could offer the best route out, and for others it would be a helping hand onto the property ladder. Speaking at the Housing Finance Conference in Liverpool, I was struck by the tricky trade-offs between prioritising current … Continued

Afternoon all, The conflict in the Middle East and turmoil in the markets is throwing up questions for a Government committed to tackling the cost of living. The easy questions are whether they should pull any big fiscal levers quickly, and whether the best way to provide cost of living support is by delaying a … Continued