Morning all, Let’s start with a wonkhack tip – if you’re going to be grilled at the Treasury Select Committee, I highly recommend bringing a phone a friend panel as strong as the one that accompanied me on Tuesday. We spent the first half discussing the need to simplify and reform the tax system to boost … Continued

Afternoon all, The leaves are falling in earnest, parliament returns from conference recess next week and coffee chains are flavouring their drinks with gourds…autumn is well and truly here, and the Budget countdown has begun (47 sleeps to go!). We’re throwing a wide net this week with reads on trade, pay volatility and declining fertility. … Continued

Afternoon all, Released from the strictures of the civil service, I thought my first ever party conference would be like opening a door to a magical new universe. To be honest, it was a bit more conference, and a bit less strange new land than I had anticipated. Maybe the Conservatives will offer more witches and … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s a weekend for competition – whether you prefer golf, dancing or bear fights. No, not Burnham vs. Starmer at Labour Party conference, but the wonderful fat bear competition. I wonder who Mark Carney will be backing this weekend… Presumably, his days of party conference endorsements are over, but he’ll have to pick a side … Continued

Morning all, Last week we warned that more bad economic news could mean Britain hitting unlucky 13 on the ‘bloody miserable index’ (unemployment + inflation + interest rates). I’m pleased to report that none of these rates moved in the end, keeping the UK at 12.5. There were mixed signals behind the no change headline. … Continued

Afternoon all, So, Radiohead fans: did you manage to get an unlock code for the upcoming tour and survive being shunted multiple times to the back of the ticket ordering queue to finally lay your hands on the elusive prize? Well, you and I are feeling much like our Chancellor right now – seemingly unlocking the … Continued

Hi all, Set your calendars for late November — and no, not just Radiohead’s first tour in seven years. It’s Rachel Reeves’s second Budget (see our chart of the week for more). Reeves is under pressure to prove she can deliver a British economy which is fitter, happier and more productive without making the sums … Continued

Morning all, Imagine having a team of people who can pretty much draw any chart you can dream up? I know, I’m incredibly lucky. But who knew they were so well read? When I asked the Resolution crew what I should read this summer the answers were too good to keep to myself. Plus, we’re … Continued

Afternoon all, I’ve been thinking this week about one question I used to ask in interviews: “How do you persuade the public (and politicians) of the risks of higher borrowing?”. To be honest, it always felt a bit harsh as no one has yet figured out a great answer. But two people passed the test … Continued

Afternoon all, Not much to cheer in a second month of contracting economic growth this morning. Don’t get too obsessed with monthly figures – but the big picture stagnant economy since 2022 and the loss of steam of the late 2024/early 25 growth spurt is not great. This week we’ve got your lowdown on the Mansion House … Continued

Afternoon all, I’ve used up all my wordcount covering developments around the welfare changes in our something for the weekend feature, so let’s keep this short. Given it’s been such a febrile week, we thought we’d pick some nice uncontroversial topics– HS2, small-boat crossings and park-bashing. If you need me, I’ll be draped over the … Continued

Morning all, If you publish enough documents called a strategy does it amount to having a strategy? Well, if you were hoping for a quiet life after the Spending Review the Government has other plans (and so, tragically, does the world but we leave that to other commentators). We’ve tackled the infrastructure strategy (published yesterday) … Continued

Hi all, I continue to be hugely impressed by the work of RF staff, not least as they digested the Spending Review (SR) at such incredible pace this week. We’ve rustled up our TOTC take on the SR for you, but I wanted to get a bugbear off my chest before we get to the charts. It … Continued

Morning all, I’m writing this morning from drizzly York, where I’ve been invited on a stellar panel for the Festival of Ideas. Hoping to see TOTC readers in attendance! As you’re all aware, there’s only five more sleeps until the Spending Review. Those of you keen to learn more about that can catch me live in living colour on a Panorama … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s been a week for getting out of your comfort zone. The Government has been busy patching things up with Brussels and U-turning on welfare cuts, meanwhile I’m about to tell you about football. Stay to the end for a chart that shows much more briefly than my blog that the priority for … Continued

Afternoon all, Looks like we’re running short of rainfall and jobs – our estimate suggests payrolled jobs have fallen by nearly 110,000 in the first four months of the year. At RF towers, we’ll be taking a step back next Tuesday to consider where the Government’s welfare reforms might be heading. Join us in person or online to consider their impact … Continued

Afternoon all, Big week for hay fever, strawberry yields and local elections. In celebration of the latter (I hope you’re ready for a five-party system) Chart of the Week has gone regional, considering how to tackle homelessness AND boost growth simultaneously. In other news, it’s been STEM week in my kids’ school (well actually STEAM, … Continued

Afternoon all, I am happy to be back in your inboxes today after a restful, rainy trip to Portugal. Nothing like a select committee on the first day back from leave – but thanks to Work and Pensions for having me nonetheless! Next week, I’m looking forward to a conversation with Andy Burnham about the best way … Continued

Afternoon all, Another busy week at RF with *four* reports being published. I hope you caught our groundbreaking analysis into how households across the income spectrum benefit from public services, as the Spending Review (SR) moves into view. The report covers some big trade-offs, such as how much the NHS settlement matters for what’s left. But small … Continued

Afternoon all, Despite writing this email for nearly three months, I’ve been struck by the proportion of editions which could fairly have opened with “what a week!” or (more realistically), a beleaguered sigh. For me it’s been a week of three Ts – the Treasury Select Committee, the new Tax year, and then Tariffs, tariffs, … Continued

Afternoon all, My son’s hot take on the Spring Statement was “I heard someone say on the radio that Rachel Reeves stuck to her own rules. That’s good. Not like Boris Johnson when he made those rules for everyone then had a party!!” This neatly summarises the two bits of political news that have cut … Continued

Afternoon all, Huge changes announced by the Government this week. Complicated but important reforms to Universal Credit to encourage more people into work, plus a massive cut to eligibility for disability benefit that doesn’t have much to do with work at all. We won’t know the full impact until the OBR releases their take, but … Continued

Afternoon all, What a quintessentially Westminster week – a plethora of potential policies aired, but a paucity of concrete proposals to parse. That said, it’s likely we’ll see details on changes to disability and incapacity benefits next week. And we’ll also be contextualising the Chancellor’s upcoming Spring Statement on Monday –  register now to avoid disappointment. … Continued