Morning all, I’m writing this morning from drizzly York, where I’ve been invited on a stellar panel for the Festival of Ideas. Hoping to see TOTC readers in attendance! As you’re all aware, there’s only five more sleeps until the Spending Review. Those of you keen to learn more about that can catch me live in living colour on a Panorama … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s been a week for getting out of your comfort zone. The Government has been busy patching things up with Brussels and U-turning on welfare cuts, meanwhile I’m about to tell you about football. Stay to the end for a chart that shows much more briefly than my blog that the priority for … Continued

Afternoon all, Looks like we’re running short of rainfall and jobs – our estimate suggests payrolled jobs have fallen by nearly 110,000 in the first four months of the year. At RF towers, we’ll be taking a step back next Tuesday to consider where the Government’s welfare reforms might be heading. Join us in person or online to consider their impact … Continued

Afternoon all, Big week for hay fever, strawberry yields and local elections. In celebration of the latter (I hope you’re ready for a five-party system) Chart of the Week has gone regional, considering how to tackle homelessness AND boost growth simultaneously. In other news, it’s been STEM week in my kids’ school (well actually STEAM, … Continued

Afternoon all, I am happy to be back in your inboxes today after a restful, rainy trip to Portugal. Nothing like a select committee on the first day back from leave – but thanks to Work and Pensions for having me nonetheless! Next week, I’m looking forward to a conversation with Andy Burnham about the best way … Continued

Afternoon all, Another busy week at RF with *four* reports being published. I hope you caught our groundbreaking analysis into how households across the income spectrum benefit from public services, as the Spending Review (SR) moves into view. The report covers some big trade-offs, such as how much the NHS settlement matters for what’s left. But small … Continued

Afternoon all, Despite writing this email for nearly three months, I’ve been struck by the proportion of editions which could fairly have opened with “what a week!” or (more realistically), a beleaguered sigh. For me it’s been a week of three Ts – the Treasury Select Committee, the new Tax year, and then Tariffs, tariffs, … Continued

Afternoon all, My son’s hot take on the Spring Statement was “I heard someone say on the radio that Rachel Reeves stuck to her own rules. That’s good. Not like Boris Johnson when he made those rules for everyone then had a party!!” This neatly summarises the two bits of political news that have cut … Continued

Afternoon all, Huge changes announced by the Government this week. Complicated but important reforms to Universal Credit to encourage more people into work, plus a massive cut to eligibility for disability benefit that doesn’t have much to do with work at all. We won’t know the full impact until the OBR releases their take, but … Continued

Afternoon all, What a quintessentially Westminster week – a plethora of potential policies aired, but a paucity of concrete proposals to parse. That said, it’s likely we’ll see details on changes to disability and incapacity benefits next week. And we’ll also be contextualising the Chancellor’s upcoming Spring Statement on Monday –  register now to avoid disappointment. … Continued

Afternoon all, I hope you enjoyed your pancakes and/or your iftar this week. We went for an English breakfast in a pancake in my house – recipe available on request. Alongside ongoing geopolitical turbulence, this week has also brought some much-needed clarity on long-awaited employment reforms – catch up on our event* discussing earnings volatility to discover … Continued

Afternoon all, Looks like Starmer found the money for defence down the back of the foreign aid budget – a seismic but not unforeseen development. More on that in Chart of the Week… In domestic news, we’re pleased the conversation has shifted towards child poverty this week. We published our analysis on what it will take to turn … Continued

Afternoon all, Some good news this week – the economy growing…just. Though we should probably worry less about dipping just below/above zero in the past three months, when a five-year fall in GDP *per capita* has spelled disaster for living standards. That said, tipping above or below zero (for fiscal rules) must feel pretty important in the … Continued

Afternoon all, I’m bringing you a newsletter of two halves today – trade wars and Valentine’s Day. Who said diplomacy was dead? While personally I’m more excited about the release of the new Bridget Jones movie (also happening next week) we’ve got the economic low down on the most romantic day of the year for you below. … Continued

Afternoon all, Three big happenings this week. The Chancellor’s speech delivered a few more concrete steps on the road to growth, but here at RF Towers we’re curious to hear more about rebuilding relationships with Europe – or their Euro-vision if you will (¬‿¬). In news close to my heart, the new fiscal rules were enshrined in law by … Continued

Morning all, It’s been quite a week for new leadership! And not the first time my CV seems to coincide with world events. My first day as the Treasury’s fiscal director was Liz Truss’s first day as Prime Minister, and my first day in the Treasury’s financial stability team was the Monday after Lehman Brother’s collapse. … Continued