Afternoon all, As someone who has worked with him closely from the Treasury side let me tell you something – Richard Hughes can be very annoying. He is stubborn in the face of lobbying. He unites with his team even when they make mistakes. He argues with the fervour of someone who is in it … Continued

Afternoon all, Five sleeps to go…and finally the Budget speculation, at least, will be over. I hope to see many of you at our morning-after event. The Government’s proposal to end for-profit ticket sales met with mixed reactions this week – never fear, our Budget reactions will always remain free (but have been known to sell … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s not unusual for Budget plans and numbers to change up until the last minute. But there are three things to take from this morning’s news that last week’s rumoured Income Tax rise isn’t happening anymore. First, none of it quite makes sense. Yes, the economic forecast may be better than originally feared, … Continued

Afternoon all, Plug in baby – what a week. We published our pre-budget analysis – Black Holes and Consolidations – and I put out my first Budget Muse-ing on why there’s a strong case for putting up income taxes. The Chancellor stole our thunder though, confirming we’re going to see an Uprising in taxes. But could OBR revisions to wage … Continued

Afternoon all, The printing-presses never stop at RF Towers – we’ve published four briefings since I last appeared in your inbox, ranging from day one frights to half-measures on poverty reduction (more on that in Chart of the Week…). The Budget-heads among you will surely have already signed up to our pre-Budget briefing on Tuesday, with a focus on housing coming the week after. We’ll be … Continued

Afternoon all, Hopefully half-term will put a dampener on the “six-seven” thing, which I’m baffled to report has reached London schools. It is an interesting example of the internet-ification of playground slang – as this teacher-penned article noted: “pupils in Cornwall and Cumbria are just as likely to shout “Skibidi Toilet” as those in London”. In less … Continued

Morning all, Let’s start with a wonkhack tip – if you’re going to be grilled at the Treasury Select Committee, I highly recommend bringing a phone a friend panel as strong as the one that accompanied me on Tuesday. We spent the first half discussing the need to simplify and reform the tax system to boost … Continued

Afternoon all, The leaves are falling in earnest, parliament returns from conference recess next week and coffee chains are flavouring their drinks with gourds…autumn is well and truly here, and the Budget countdown has begun (47 sleeps to go!). We’re throwing a wide net this week with reads on trade, pay volatility and declining fertility. … Continued

Afternoon all, Released from the strictures of the civil service, I thought my first ever party conference would be like opening a door to a magical new universe. To be honest, it was a bit more conference, and a bit less strange new land than I had anticipated. Maybe the Conservatives will offer more witches and … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s a weekend for competition – whether you prefer golf, dancing or bear fights. No, not Burnham vs. Starmer at Labour Party conference, but the wonderful fat bear competition. I wonder who Mark Carney will be backing this weekend… Presumably, his days of party conference endorsements are over, but he’ll have to pick a side … Continued

Morning all, Last week we warned that more bad economic news could mean Britain hitting unlucky 13 on the ‘bloody miserable index’ (unemployment + inflation + interest rates). I’m pleased to report that none of these rates moved in the end, keeping the UK at 12.5. There were mixed signals behind the no change headline. … Continued

Afternoon all, So, Radiohead fans: did you manage to get an unlock code for the upcoming tour and survive being shunted multiple times to the back of the ticket ordering queue to finally lay your hands on the elusive prize? Well, you and I are feeling much like our Chancellor right now – seemingly unlocking the … Continued

Hi all, Set your calendars for late November — and no, not just Radiohead’s first tour in seven years. It’s Rachel Reeves’s second Budget (see our chart of the week for more). Reeves is under pressure to prove she can deliver a British economy which is fitter, happier and more productive without making the sums … Continued

Morning all, Imagine having a team of people who can pretty much draw any chart you can dream up? I know, I’m incredibly lucky. But who knew they were so well read? When I asked the Resolution crew what I should read this summer the answers were too good to keep to myself. Plus, we’re … Continued

Afternoon all, I’ve been thinking this week about one question I used to ask in interviews: “How do you persuade the public (and politicians) of the risks of higher borrowing?”. To be honest, it always felt a bit harsh as no one has yet figured out a great answer. But two people passed the test … Continued

Afternoon all, Not much to cheer in a second month of contracting economic growth this morning. Don’t get too obsessed with monthly figures – but the big picture stagnant economy since 2022 and the loss of steam of the late 2024/early 25 growth spurt is not great. This week we’ve got your lowdown on the Mansion House … Continued

Afternoon all, I’ve used up all my wordcount covering developments around the welfare changes in our something for the weekend feature, so let’s keep this short. Given it’s been such a febrile week, we thought we’d pick some nice uncontroversial topics– HS2, small-boat crossings and park-bashing. If you need me, I’ll be draped over the … Continued

Morning all, If you publish enough documents called a strategy does it amount to having a strategy? Well, if you were hoping for a quiet life after the Spending Review the Government has other plans (and so, tragically, does the world but we leave that to other commentators). We’ve tackled the infrastructure strategy (published yesterday) … Continued

Hi all, I continue to be hugely impressed by the work of RF staff, not least as they digested the Spending Review (SR) at such incredible pace this week. We’ve rustled up our TOTC take on the SR for you, but I wanted to get a bugbear off my chest before we get to the charts. It … Continued

Morning all, I’m writing this morning from drizzly York, where I’ve been invited on a stellar panel for the Festival of Ideas. Hoping to see TOTC readers in attendance! As you’re all aware, there’s only five more sleeps until the Spending Review. Those of you keen to learn more about that can catch me live in living colour on a Panorama … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s been a week for getting out of your comfort zone. The Government has been busy patching things up with Brussels and U-turning on welfare cuts, meanwhile I’m about to tell you about football. Stay to the end for a chart that shows much more briefly than my blog that the priority for … Continued

Afternoon all, Looks like we’re running short of rainfall and jobs – our estimate suggests payrolled jobs have fallen by nearly 110,000 in the first four months of the year. At RF towers, we’ll be taking a step back next Tuesday to consider where the Government’s welfare reforms might be heading. Join us in person or online to consider their impact … Continued