Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy· Political parties and elections Political leaders must set out credible plans to tackle the next downturn The time for action on macroeconomic policy is now 30 November 2019 by James Smith Okay, fair enough, there’s a lot going on right now. With a fraught election campaign in full flow, and our future relationship with the EU still up in the air, you can be forgiven for taking your eye off preparations for the next recession. But boom and bust hasn’t gone away. So while the sun … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Another summer blockbuster (on fiscal risks) from the OBR 18 July 2019 by Richard Hughes Today the OBR published its second Fiscal Risks Report, a comprehensive assessment of all the things that could go wrong with the UK’s public finances over the next 50 years. And it is a summer blockbuster – topping out at 293 pages in total. Fiscal risk analysis is the new cutting edge in fiscal policymaking, … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Phil ‘Bullseye’ Hammond told MPs what they ‘could’ve won’ – if only they didn’t stuff up Brexit 14 March 2019 by Torsten Bell Last night Parliamentarians went all Noel Edmonds as they debated deal or no deal. But earlier in the day it was the late, great Jim Bowen of Bullseye fame that the Chancellor was channelling in his Spring Statement, setting out just what MP’s “could’ve won” – or might still win – if they back a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Inequality & poverty· Economy and public finances Is rising inequality helping to swell the coffers for Fortunate Phil? 12 March 2019 by Torsten Bell Fortunate Phil is not what the Chancellor generally gets called. But as he prepares for tomorrow’s Spring Statement, Philip Hammond – despite facing what looks like headline bad news – has at least some reasons to be grateful for good luck on both the economic and political fronts. The Treasury is gearing up for the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Economy and public finances As growth slows UK households have already taken a £1,500 living standards hit since the referendum 11 February 2019 by Torsten Bell Today we learnt that economic growth slowed significantly at the end of 2018, with GDP only growing by 0.2 per cent in the last three months of the year. This is around a third of the pre-crisis average rate. In December alone, the economy contracted by 0.4 per cent with the manufacturing sector now having … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Hitting the books: student loans and the public finances 16 December 2018 by Matthew Whittaker With everything that’s going on in British politics right now, it’s easy to forget that the government was celebrating some seriously good news just seven weeks ago. You might remember that the Chancellor got handed a £74 billion fiscal windfall at the Budget that allowed him to deliver the long-promised extra spending on the NHS … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Pessimism, Politics and Economics: the real Budget story 2 November 2018 by James Smith Debates following this week’s Budget have been dominated by political arguments about whether the Chancellor’s spending splurge means that austerity had been ended or lives on (our view: austerity was significantly eased but not ended). But another debate has been conspicuously absent this week, having dominated the UK’s political economy for the past eight years: … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Low pay Never mind the end of austerity, what about the end of low pay? 2 November 2018 by Conor D’Arcy While post-Budget debates on austerity and tax cuts rumble on, one clear living standards win on Monday was an increase in the National Living Wage (NLW). But beyond announcing the rate for next year, the government also used the Budget to set out a bold new aspiration that could have major implications: ending low pay. … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Budget marks a very significant easing – but not an end of austerity 30 October 2018 by Torsten Bell Marriages require compromise. So we shouldn’t be surprised that the reluctant political marriage between Theresa May and Phillip Hammond has delivered a compromise Budget. Caught between the Prime Ministers promise to “end austerity”, the wish to see debt falling, and the reality of the parliamentary arithmetic making significant tax rises difficult the Chancellor has taken … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Housing Easing the housing headache: what the Chancellor should do in next week’s Budget 22 October 2018 by Lindsay Judge No doubt about it, housing is a headache for many young people today. The dramatic fall in the home ownership rates of the under-35s often produces the sharpest pangs for politicians (although as Chart 1 shows, we’ve seen a slight uptick in the proportion of young families owning in the last year or so). But … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax The Chancellor may have one arm tied behind his back, but there are still tax levers he can pull 21 October 2018 by Adam Corlett How can a government with a tenuous majority, an intra-party feud and Brexit uncertainty find the money to ‘end austerity’ on top of more than £20 billion a year it has promised for the NHS? The safe bet is that it won’t find anywhere near all of it in the Budget. This can – like … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Despite ‘the end of austerity’, April promises another deep benefit cut 17 October 2018 by Adam Corlett Today we learned just how deep the benefits freeze will be in its fourth and final year. In July 2015, having promised £12 billion of welfare cuts – reportedly on the assumption that the Liberal Democrats would argue this down – George Osborne announced exactly that. Chief among these cuts was a further working age … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The OBR on Brexit: known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns cast shadow over the Budget 11 October 2018 by James Smith As if Philip Hammond’s job over the next few weeks wasn’t tough enough already, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this morning has published its thinking on how Brexit will make his life harder for many years to come. Already charged with “ending austerity” (which, as Torsten pointed out last week, is a stretch to … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Tax· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Britain is set to replace the era of austerity with a new era of tax rises 7 October 2018 by David Willetts The main message that has united both main party conferences over the last fortnight is that the era of austerity is over. For Labour that means more spending on new things – from universal childcare to a mass programme of nationalisation. And for many Conservatives it means a return to what they love doing best … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances The end of austerity? Not so much 3 October 2018 by Torsten Bell and Resolution Foundation Analysis The Prime Minister made a big bold statement today. No, not that she likes to dance to Abba (who doesn’t) but that she was “ending austerity”. Announcing the end of austerity is sensible politics. After all who, apart from a few fringe think-tanks, says they want more austerity in of itself? There are also signs … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Is there enough fuel in the fiscal tank for another duty freeze? 3 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker After eight years of freezes, it had started to look like successive governments’ cancellation of the annual RPI-linked uprating of fuel duty had run out of road. After all, it’s already costing the government around £9 billion a year, and that cost will grow with each passing year. But we now know that the Chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Five charts to chill the Chancellor’s blood ahead of the Budget 28 September 2018 by Matthew Whittaker We now know that this year’s Budget will be delivered on 29 October, making it the first Monday Budget since 1962. The traditional Wednesday has been avoided, we’re told, to side-step negative Halloween-based headlines. Yet there’s still plenty of scary stuff for the Chancellor to deal with – from finding the £20 billion needed to … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Time to concentrate on our capitalism 26 July 2018 by Torsten Bell and Daniel Tomlinson Our politicians are anxious. And not just because no-one has a decent poll lead or idea where Brexit will end up. No, some are finding the time to get anxious about other things too, including the state of capitalism in the UK. The angst isn’t limited to the left either, with Michael Gove becoming a … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances We’re all social democrats now 17 July 2018 by Torsten Bell It’s Super Tuesday on the fiscal policy front. Try not to get too excited. Today a lucky world gains not only the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Fiscal Sustainability Report (the ‘FSR’ looks ages over the next 50 years to ask: ‘how bust are we if we carry on as we are’) but also the Treasury’s … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Housing· Intergenerational Centre The future fiscal cost of ‘Generation Rent’ 17 April 2018 by Stephen Clarke The future fiscal cost of ‘Generation Rent’ For most people the lion’s share of their income is spent housing and so forking out on accommodation when no longer earning would seem like a tall order for many. The vast majority of retired people own their own home and so have relatively low housing costs, however … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances What Philip Hammond will say today: the deficit is dead, long live the debt 12 March 2018 by Torsten Bell Philip Hammond is going to give a very short speech at the Spring Statement today. There will be none of the tax and spending announcements we are used to when Chancellors rise to the Despatch Box. But short and largely announcement free as it will be, tomorrow’s speech will nonetheless represent something very significant for … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Inequality & poverty· Economy and public finances Should the Office for Budget Responsibility also forecast inequality? 2 March 2018 by Adam Corlett The strengths and weaknesses of economic forecasting are under scrutiny, perhaps like never before. How might GDP perform under different Brexit policies compared to a world with no Brexit? Is unemployment now likely to rise or fall? What will public borrowing in 2022 be? Whatever your politics, such modelling and forecasting is indispensable – so … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Chancellor has coped with a huge economic downgrade, but the outlook is grim for families across Britain 23 November 2017 by Torsten Bell For his first Autumn Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility has given Philip Hammond a truly catastrophic set of economic forecasts. After a decade of unrealised productivity forecasts, the OBR has now delivered the mother of all downgrades; all but halving its view of the UK’s capacity to grow. As a result it now expects … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Low pay· Economy and public finances The Autumn Budget 2017 brings worse than hoped for news for the low paid 23 November 2017 by Conor D’Arcy or many people, the big news out of November’s Budget – a massive downgrade in the outlook for productivity growth – will sound a bit abstract. The productivity downgrade has made the Chancellor’s task of balancing the books harder. But its impact on pay – with average annual earnings lowered by £1,000 – mean it’s even … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Scotland· Tax Will the (Scottish) Budget raise income tax rates? 20 November 2017 by Adam Corlett With the UK Budget imminent, it’s important not to forget proposals released in Scotland earlier this month. These could lead to increases in income tax rates as soon as April, intended to protect public services and benefits in Scotland. This would be a departure from the usual direction of travel in the UK: there has … Continued READ MORE
