Brexit & trade A tariff-fying start 4 February 2025 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites Over the last few days, President Trump has turned his campaign promises into reality, announcing major tariff hikes. But if the spotlight shifts to the UK, we should be cautious about retaliating. A tariff-fying start On 1 February, Trump announced steep new tariffs on the US’s three biggest trade partners: 25 per cent on Canada … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth The Government’s economic strategy becomes more concrete 29 January 2025 by Greg Thwaites The Chancellor’s speech today provided some more detail on how the Government plans to boost growth. One can begin to discern the outlines of a growth strategy taking shape, and it is increasingly clear what this government wants to be known for: building things. A concrete growth strategy Life is never really this simple, but … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Britain needs to acknowledge rather than deny its weaknesses in goods trade, and leverage its strength in services 13 May 2024 by Emily Fry The UK economy swiftly exited its recession in the first quarter of 2024 thanks in part to an improving trade balance. This is good news – but an improving trade balance is not the same as a successful trade performance. Indeed, GDP was boosted despite the UK’s total trade with the rest of the world … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Britain’s post-Brexit trade patterns are finally emerging in the data 28 February 2024 by Emily Fry The impact of Brexit on trade in the first two years after leaving the EU was complicated by global events: first the pandemic, and then the spike in energy prices. This means the 2023 data – the third year of trade post-Brexit – is the first real opportunity to see what’s going on. At first … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economy and public finances What Britain should learn from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act plan Like or loath the ‘protectionist’ Inflation Reduction Act’s green subsidies, America offers an example of strategic thinking 13 March 2023 by Torsten Bell The UK has lost the habit of thinking strategically. Grappling with the constraints imposed by the global and domestic economies — or reality as it is sometimes known — is deeply out of fashion these days. Debates on how the UK might respond to Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and its near $400bn of green … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Living standards· Inequality & poverty Energy prices: Why now is the time to act to help millions of families facing fuel bill catastrophe A benefits boost and insulation drive are needed 3 May 2022 by Jonathan Marshall The first day of April saw the largest overnight jump in energy bills in living memory, pushing up the cost of gas and electricity for 22 million families by more than 50 per cent. Despite this not having sunk in yet – households are only one bill into this new reality at most – we … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions· Economic growth Levelling-up: The Blair-Osborne Project 2 February 2022 by Lindsay Judge and Charlie McCurdy There have been many attempts in the past to reduce the gaps between richer and poorer parts of the UK. But despite progress on some measures (most notably employment and pay), geographic disparities remain substantial and stubborn, particularly when it comes to productivity. The gap in typical pay between Kensington and Chelsea and Scarborough has … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Net zero Working from home means bigger bills and highlights the need for better insulation ‘Running the boiler all day will see the average household use around 50 per cent more gas than if their home was unoccupied’ 10 January 2022 by Jonathan Marshall With the rise of the Covid variant Omicron, working from home is back. One of the many differences between this winter and last, however, is that working from home has come amid a cost of living crisis, with inflation recently hitting a 10-year high. It’s easy to see the spread of higher prices in day-to-day life, … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Net zero The latest climate warning further highlights gaps in our decarbonising plans IPCC reports seldom bring good news, but the latest assessment finds that the crucial marker of a 1.5C temperature increase on pre-industrial times could be with us in just two decades 13 August 2021 by Jonathan Marshall The latest summary of global climate science, compiled over years by hundreds of researchers, brings yet another stark warning on how the world is not decarbonising fast enough. READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions· Economic growth Solving the productivity puzzle 15 July 2021 by Lindsay Judge Regional inequalities are a longstanding feature within UK political debate. However, they have gained additional pertinence in the years since the 2008 financial crisis. From the 2016 EU referendum result, through the ‘red wall’ turning blue in the 2019 general election, to the differential impact of Covid-19 across the UK, place increasingly functions as a … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Labour market· Inequality & poverty· Pay· Cities and regions· Political parties and elections Election 2019: how Britain’s North-South divide is changing Closing the divide once and for all is a challenge all political parties say they want to embrace 6 December 2019 by Charlie McCurdy The North-South divide is a theme often used by – and against – politicians to highlight inequality in the UK, and election time is no exception. But this divide has evolved over time, and is by no means the only geographical divide in the country. The big economic divide Productivity – or how efficiently … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Brexit & trade· Tax After Brexit the UK could cut VAT on energy – but should it? 2 September 2019 by Adam Corlett During the EU referendum, one of Vote Leave’s promises was that “fuel bills will be lower for everyone”. Specifically, Boris Johnson and others argued that: “In 1993, VAT on household energy bills was imposed. This makes gas and electricity much more expensive. EU rules mean we cannot take VAT off those bills. The least wealthy … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth Is there any economics behind Johnson’s ‘perk up and carry on’ strategy? 15 August 2019 by Torsten Bell It’s time to get with the perk… I mean programme. Boris Johnson’s government might not even have a Budget under its belt, but its economic strategy is taking shape. It’s time to abolish the gloomsters. And the doomsters. As he said on entering Downing Street, “after three years of unfounded self-doubt it is time to … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Childcare· Scotland· Welfare A welcome boost for ‘just about managing’ families in Scotland 27 June 2019 by Adam Corlett Yesterday started with a bleak assessment by the Child Poverty Action Group of the impact of ongoing welfare cuts – specifically how the two-child limit on support, which began to be implemented in 2017, is set to push 300,000 children into poverty. But there was better news for Scottish parents later in the day, as … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Labour market· Pay Two and a half reasons to be cheerful about our strong and stable labour market 11 June 2019 by Nye Cominetti Today’s labour market statistics were, to use a technical term, boring. In a world of high political and economic drama, our labour market has served up headline measures of real pay growth and employment which basically haven’t changed for four months in a row. We shouldn’t bemoan unchanging numbers. Like air travel and digging tunnels, … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Labour market· Productivity & industrial strategy The word on the high street 18 April 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson The way we shop in the UK has changed dramatically in just the space of a decade. In 2008 less than five per cent of retail spending was online, and that share has almost quadrupled in the years since. The latest statistics published just this morning show that in March this year almost a fifth … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Cities and regions (Almost) every part of the country is celebrating Britain’s latest jobs surge 19 March 2019 by Charlie McCurdy We’re now a decade on from the Great Recession where the UK’s labour market took a turn for the worse. Back in 2009, we were panicking that unemployment could hit over three million. Today, we’re celebrating the highest employment rate – at 76.1 per cent – since World War II, while unemployment is also at … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Cities and regions Why city regions should be leading the charge on tackling low pay 3 March 2019 by Fahmida Rahman Low pay in Britain is an issue of national importance. With around one-in-five employees classed as low paid, the share of Brits who fall into this category remains well above the levels achieved by the best-performing countries in the OECD. That said, within Britain, there are huge disparities in terms of where low pay is … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Labour market Relocation, relocation, relocation – why workers in firms are increasingly staying put 13 November 2018 by Stephen Clarke Channel 4 (or at least some of it) is off to Leeds. Some staff may be relishing the move, some may have wanted to move to Manchester or Birmingham, while others may have just wanted to stay put. Despite the mixed feelings one thing is undisputed; Channel 4 staff are now part of an increasingly … Continued READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Wealth & assets· Cities and regions Regional wealth inequality: a nation divided 1 September 2018 by Conor D’Arcy On Monday, families across the country will be feeling a mix of excitement, anxiety and relief as kids go back to school (with Scotland having already gone through it). Experiences that unite every corner of the UK feel rarer these days, with talk of division and left-behind places common. Differences between South Shields and South … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Time to concentrate on our capitalism 26 July 2018 by Torsten Bell and Daniel Tomlinson Our politicians are anxious. And not just because no-one has a decent poll lead or idea where Brexit will end up. No, some are finding the time to get anxious about other things too, including the state of capitalism in the UK. The angst isn’t limited to the left either, with Michael Gove becoming a … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Cities and regions Tackling London’s living standards exodus 2 July 2018 by Conor D’Arcy Everyone knows housing is a disaster in London. This is most obvious in the ludicrous prices that properties fetch, but London’s housing problems stretch well beyond having to fork out over half a million pounds for a poky flat in Zone 2. For a start, the way people are housed in London has changed dramatically … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions Poor productivity and high housing costs are driving a ‘living standards exodus’ from London 27 June 2018 by Stephen Clarke As a Londoner it’s fair to say that as a city we’re quite good at giving ourselves a pat on the back (though apparently self-loathing Londoners are a thing too). It’s often suggested that London is an economic powerhouse, productive, innovative and leaving the rest of the country in its wake. However new research by … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Brexit & trade· Economic growth Dis-United Kingdom? Inequality, growth and the Brexit divide 25 May 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Much has changed in Britain since the EU referendum, but in many ways the divide that opened up around the vote feels as cavernous today as it was on the morning after the night before. That owes much to the inevitably divisive nature of a binary in/out referendum of course, but many commentators point also … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Introducing….Hamilton – The Industrial Strategy 21 May 2018 by David Willetts Today’s science speech by the Prime Minister shows how much she has in common with the great Alexander Hamilton – though she has not got her own musical yet. Hamilton’s great rival Jefferson had a picture of America as sturdy yeoman farmers enjoying their liberties under a minimalist Government. Hamilton instead saw the Federal Government … Continued READ MORE
