Low pay· Living Wage A one-year holding policy on the minimum wage signals a shift of focus to employment rights 30 July 2024 by Nye Cominetti Today the Government published a new remit for the Low Pay Commission (LPC). The LPC are the independent body who recommend specific minimum wage rates to the Government – including the National Living Wage (NLW) which applies to workers aged 21 and over, and the age-specific rates for younger workers. But they make these recommendations … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Living Wage How to weigh up minimum wage manifesto promises Money talks but the bite is what matters 31 May 2024 by Gavin Kelly and Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter While the principle of there being a minimum wage is, happily, no longer a matter of ideological contention in British politics, its future level is likely to remain a key labour market question in the general election campaign. It matters. First and foremost for the 1.6 million workers who directly rely on it (as well … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay The labour market is generating fewer jobs, but paying better for those who have one 14 May 2024 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data paint a picture of a labour market that is generating fewer jobs, but paying better for those who do have one. This picture is hazy, however, because the data are themselves increasingly uncertain. The employment rate is falling The 16-64 employment rate in the ONS’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) was unchanged … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The jobs market recovery stalls 16 April 2024 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data from the ONS suggest that both labour demand and labour supply are heading South. The only silver lining is that, for those that do have a job, real pay has been rising fast. Labour supply is falling fast Economic inactivity rate has risen to its highest rate since 2015 among those … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market Government names and shames 500 firms for illegally under-paying staff – but will it dissuade others from flouting the law? 20 February 2024 by Hannah Slaughter Today the Department for Business and Trade published a list of more than 500 employers who have underpaid the minimum wage, in the latest ‘naming round’ that publicises firms that break the law. Among the list are household names such as Greggs, easyJet, Hamleys and River Island, as well as smaller local businesses from across … Continued READ MORE
Labour market A deep dive into the latest labour market statistics 13 February 2024 by Hannah Slaughter Today marks an important milestone for labour market wonks. After being deprived of a full labour market release since early autumn due to data issues around one of the ONS’ core surveys, this morning we got (almost) the full set of labour market data up to the end of 2023. The release sheds light on … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Pay Falling pay, divergent data and a bulging middle. 2 November 2023 by Nye Cominetti The ONS has published its 2023 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), taken in April this year. ASHE is a big survey of employers that provides a detailed picture of employee pay across different places, jobs, and types of workers. It’s also the only data we get on hourly pay. So what does this … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market Good work across the UK’s nations, regions and industries The 11th Annual NERI Dónal Nevin Lecture 19 October 2023 by Torsten Bell The 11th Annual NERI Dónal Nevin Lecture in association with the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s University Belfast took place on Monday 16 October, 2023 from 11am – 1pm. The venue was the Canada Room (and Council Chamber), Lanyon Building, Queen’s University Belfast. Torsten Bell, Chief Executive of the Resolution … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Flying blind? The case of the missing employment data 17 October 2023 by Nye Cominetti Every month the ONS releases lots of data on the condition of the UK labour market – including information about employment, jobs, pay, and vacancies. But for the first time (that we are aware of), today’s statistics were released without the data that comes from the ONS’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) – the source for … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The labour market is cooling but pay growth remains strong New ONS labour market statistics show the biggest employment fall on record outside of a recession 12 September 2023 by Hannah Slaughter This morning’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is starting to cool, with the biggest employment fall on record outside of a recession. But this is not yet feeding through into wages, which grew at record high rates. And while wage growth impacts both workers and (indirectly) the wider economy, this month’s pay … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Short-term pay pain eases, but long-term legacy leaves scars 15 August 2023 by Charlie McCurdy Today’s labour market stats offer a glimmer of good news when it comes to pay: real wages in June were higher than a year ago for the first time in 18 months, offering a welcome respite for workers in Britain. But this welcome news for workers won’t be shared by policy makers at the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Real-term public sector pay falls are fuelling the recent strikes… but what lies ahead? 15 August 2023 by Nye Cominetti Across the past year, 3.9 million working days have been lost to industrial action– more days than at any point since the 1980s. The Resolution Foundation’s Labour Market Outlook, published today, takes a look at why these strikes are happening… and, crucially, at what’s happening to public sector pay, and how this has fuelled the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour market loosens gradually as inactivity falls, but pay growth remains high 11 July 2023 by Greg Thwaites Today’s data paints a picture of a labour market that is loosening somewhat (as in, firms aren’t having to compete quite as fiercely for workers) but with pay growth at levels still far too rapid to hit the Bank of England’s 2 per cent inflation target. Real pay is still falling, so we’ve taken a … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Migration The nature of the post-Brexit migration change is different to what many expected 25 May 2023 by Charlie McCurdy The latest migration statistics, covering the year ending December 2022, confirm that the post-Brexit era has brought significant changes in migration patterns. The predictable headline was that overall net migration reached a record high, but the labour market nature of this change differs from what many expected – with the migrant workforce growing slower than … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Growing, but for how long? 16 May 2023 by Nye Cominetti This morning’s labour market data from the ONS had encouraging news in the shape of rising employment, coming from a reversal among the under 50s of the post-pandemic fall in participation. But inactivity among the over 50s and among those with long-term illnesses remains stubbornly high, there continue to be signs that firms’ demand for … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour market offers glimmers of hope for the Chancellor and the Bank 14 March 2023 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market statistics show employment has been holding up well in the face of the higher interest rates and the cost of living crisis. Meanwhile, there were encouraging early signs that labour market activity is improving and pay growth generating less inflation – a bit of good news for the Chancellor ahead of Wednesday’s … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Childcare· Welfare Mums hold the key to getting Britain working again Boosting workforce participation in the 2020s 25 February 2023 by Louise Murphy Britain has built up a lot of economic problems over the past 15 years – weak investment and productivity growth, contributing to an unprecedented pay squeeze and stagnating living standards. But there has been one metric at which we have excelled – getting more people into work. Sadly this success story has been undone somewhat since the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Concerning rise in NEETs driven by uptick in youth unemployment New ONS figures show a sharp rise in the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training 23 February 2023 by Louise Murphy This morning, the ONS published new figures outlining the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET). Overall, 788,000 16-24-year-olds (11.5 per cent) found themselves NEET in the last three months of 2022. And there has been a sharp rise in the number of young people who are NEET in … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Good news in the latest labour market data for the Bank and the Chancellor, but bad news for the general public 14 February 2023 by Hannah Slaughter and Nye Cominetti This morning’s labour market stats bring good news and bad news. An uptick in workforce participation is good news for everyone, while signs of weakening pay pressure might ease the Bank of England’s inflation concerns. But a wider cooling of demand (seen in falling vacancies, and rising unemployment and redundancies) don’t bode well for workers. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Understanding the labour market context behind the current strikes 13 December 2022 by Louise Murphy The backdrop to this morning’s labour market statistics is recent strikes: around 40,000 rail workers are striking today and later in the week, and nurses and Royal Mail staff (among others) are set to strike later this month. Today’s data helps us understand the labour market context behind these strikes – workers are feeling the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Pay growth gap adds to staffing crisis in the public sector 15 November 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data show real pay falling fast in the private sector, and even faster in the public sector. Public sector vacancies have hit a new record, while vacancies in the private sector continue to recede gently from recent record highs. As the Chancellor prepares to announce a new round of tight public spending … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Five take-aways from the 2022 ASHE release: a bad year for pay growth, but good news on pay inequality 27 October 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy The ONS published their annual release from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) on October 26th. It’s not the timeliest data – it was collected from a survey of employers all the way back in April, and we already know from other data sources how pay has evolved through to July and August. … Continued READ MORE
Pay Low unemployment belies a labour market in poor health 11 October 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data showed unemployment hitting its lowest rate since 1974. On the face of it, this is cause for celebration. But a shrinking labour force, not a rise in employment, drove the fall in unemployment, and this is a cause for concern. A record number of working-age people are now inactive due to … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Britain’s pay squeeze continues as sickness shrinks the workforce 13 September 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data show both the supply of and demand for labour falling. On demand, vacancies continued to fall from recent peaks, while the employment rate ticked down. Don’t be fooled by the fall in the unemployment rate, even to a record low. This is because the fall in unemployed was driven by fewer … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The labour market is making history for the wrong reasons 16 August 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter The backdrop to today’s labour market data has been discussion around the increasingly concerning picture for the winter, with expectations of future increases in the energy price cap continuing to ratchet upwards. But today’s data reminds us that when it comes to pay at least, workers are already facing very tough conditions, even before the … Continued READ MORE
