Labour market The labour market is cooling but pay growth remains strong New ONS labour market statistics show the biggest employment fall on record outside of a recession 12 September 2023 by Hannah Slaughter This morning’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is starting to cool, with the biggest employment fall on record outside of a recession. But this is not yet feeding through into wages, which grew at record high rates. And while wage growth impacts both workers and (indirectly) the wider economy, this month’s pay … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Short-term pay pain eases, but long-term legacy leaves scars 15 August 2023 by Charlie McCurdy Today’s labour market stats offer a glimmer of good news when it comes to pay: real wages in June were higher than a year ago for the first time in 18 months, offering a welcome respite for workers in Britain. But this welcome news for workers won’t be shared by policy makers at the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Real-term public sector pay falls are fuelling the recent strikes… but what lies ahead? 15 August 2023 by Nye Cominetti Across the past year, 3.9 million working days have been lost to industrial action– more days than at any point since the 1980s. The Resolution Foundation’s Labour Market Outlook, published today, takes a look at why these strikes are happening… and, crucially, at what’s happening to public sector pay, and how this has fuelled the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour market loosens gradually as inactivity falls, but pay growth remains high 11 July 2023 by Greg Thwaites Today’s data paints a picture of a labour market that is loosening somewhat (as in, firms aren’t having to compete quite as fiercely for workers) but with pay growth at levels still far too rapid to hit the Bank of England’s 2 per cent inflation target. Real pay is still falling, so we’ve taken a … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Migration The nature of the post-Brexit migration change is different to what many expected 25 May 2023 by Charlie McCurdy The latest migration statistics, covering the year ending December 2022, confirm that the post-Brexit era has brought significant changes in migration patterns. The predictable headline was that overall net migration reached a record high, but the labour market nature of this change differs from what many expected – with the migrant workforce growing slower than … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Growing, but for how long? 16 May 2023 by Nye Cominetti This morning’s labour market data from the ONS had encouraging news in the shape of rising employment, coming from a reversal among the under 50s of the post-pandemic fall in participation. But inactivity among the over 50s and among those with long-term illnesses remains stubbornly high, there continue to be signs that firms’ demand for … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour market offers glimmers of hope for the Chancellor and the Bank 14 March 2023 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market statistics show employment has been holding up well in the face of the higher interest rates and the cost of living crisis. Meanwhile, there were encouraging early signs that labour market activity is improving and pay growth generating less inflation – a bit of good news for the Chancellor ahead of Wednesday’s … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Childcare· Welfare Mums hold the key to getting Britain working again Boosting workforce participation in the 2020s 25 February 2023 by Louise Murphy Britain has built up a lot of economic problems over the past 15 years – weak investment and productivity growth, contributing to an unprecedented pay squeeze and stagnating living standards. But there has been one metric at which we have excelled – getting more people into work. Sadly this success story has been undone somewhat since the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Concerning rise in NEETs driven by uptick in youth unemployment New ONS figures show a sharp rise in the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training 23 February 2023 by Louise Murphy This morning, the ONS published new figures outlining the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET). Overall, 788,000 16-24-year-olds (11.5 per cent) found themselves NEET in the last three months of 2022. And there has been a sharp rise in the number of young people who are NEET in … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Good news in the latest labour market data for the Bank and the Chancellor, but bad news for the general public 14 February 2023 by Hannah Slaughter and Nye Cominetti This morning’s labour market stats bring good news and bad news. An uptick in workforce participation is good news for everyone, while signs of weakening pay pressure might ease the Bank of England’s inflation concerns. But a wider cooling of demand (seen in falling vacancies, and rising unemployment and redundancies) don’t bode well for workers. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Understanding the labour market context behind the current strikes 13 December 2022 by Louise Murphy The backdrop to this morning’s labour market statistics is recent strikes: around 40,000 rail workers are striking today and later in the week, and nurses and Royal Mail staff (among others) are set to strike later this month. Today’s data helps us understand the labour market context behind these strikes – workers are feeling the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Pay growth gap adds to staffing crisis in the public sector 15 November 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data show real pay falling fast in the private sector, and even faster in the public sector. Public sector vacancies have hit a new record, while vacancies in the private sector continue to recede gently from recent record highs. As the Chancellor prepares to announce a new round of tight public spending … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Five take-aways from the 2022 ASHE release: a bad year for pay growth, but good news on pay inequality 27 October 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy The ONS published their annual release from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) on October 26th. It’s not the timeliest data – it was collected from a survey of employers all the way back in April, and we already know from other data sources how pay has evolved through to July and August. … Continued READ MORE
Pay Low unemployment belies a labour market in poor health 11 October 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data showed unemployment hitting its lowest rate since 1974. On the face of it, this is cause for celebration. But a shrinking labour force, not a rise in employment, drove the fall in unemployment, and this is a cause for concern. A record number of working-age people are now inactive due to … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Britain’s pay squeeze continues as sickness shrinks the workforce 13 September 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data show both the supply of and demand for labour falling. On demand, vacancies continued to fall from recent peaks, while the employment rate ticked down. Don’t be fooled by the fall in the unemployment rate, even to a record low. This is because the fall in unemployed was driven by fewer … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The labour market is making history for the wrong reasons 16 August 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter The backdrop to today’s labour market data has been discussion around the increasingly concerning picture for the winter, with expectations of future increases in the energy price cap continuing to ratchet upwards. But today’s data reminds us that when it comes to pay at least, workers are already facing very tough conditions, even before the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Feeling poor and working more – again 19 July 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data tell us a bit more about how the labour market is responding to high inflation and the cost of living shock. We see some things we would expect, some things which may be surprising, and much that remains unresolved. Real wages fall at the fastest rate on record The most eye-popping … Continued READ MORE
Labour market A tight labour market, but early signs of cooling 14 June 2022 by Nye Cominetti This morning’s labour market statistics from the ONS showed a familiar picture of a tight labour market alongside a deepening real wage squeeze. But there are also some signs of a turning point, with wider economic weakness at the start of 2022 potentially feeding into softening labour demand. A now familiar picture of a tight … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Unemployment hits a record low but pay is still falling in real terms 17 May 2022 by Greg Thwaites Tuesday’s labour market data contained good news on unemployment, which fell to its lowest level in 50 years, but bad news on real pay, which is falling and set to fall faster. There are very early signs that labour-force participation might be starting to reverse the huge falls we have seen since the pandemic, but … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour market tight, household budgets tighter 15 March 2022 by Greg Thwaites Tuesday’s labour market data showed that many of the trends of recent months remain in play. The labour market tightened further, participation continued to disappoint and real pay packets kept falling, while nominal pay growth hasn’t yet shown clear signs of accelerating. The labour market is tight The labour market is now very tight on … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Good headline news on NEETs hides a worrying rise in economically inactive young men 24 February 2022 by Louise Murphy and Kathleen Henehan This morning the ONS published the latest figures outlining the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET). Overall 692,000 16-24-year-olds (10.2 per cent), including 642,000 18-24-year-olds (12 per cent), found themselves NEET at the end of last year. On the surface, this is worth celebrating: the number and proportion … Continued READ MORE
Migration If fewer workers migrate to Britain, our own will need greater mobility Migration policy can complement an economic strategy, but it can’t stand in for one. 23 February 2022 by Kathleen Henehan One of the main benefits often cited of leaving the European Union was that the UK regained control of its borders, with the Prime Minister arguing that bringing in a more controlled migration regime would be key to enabling the UK to become a high wage economy. Others fear that the shift to a new, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay January’s labour market data confirms 2022 will be the year of the pay squeeze 18 January 2022 by Nye Cominetti The big news in this morning’s labour market stats was confirmation that pay is now falling in real terms – the pay squeeze will be one of the defining features of 2022. There is better news on jobs, with falling unemployment suggesting the labour market continues to tighten, but vacancies have fallen from their high … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Two-and-a-half cheers for the UK’s post-furlough labour market 16 November 2021 by Greg Thwaites There is plenty to celebrate in today’s labour market data. As the end of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme approached in September, we saw rising employment (up to 75.4 per cent), falling unemployment (down to 4.3 per cent – see Figure 1 for both) and a record number of people moving into new jobs – … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Living standards· Labour market Who is still on furlough and what will happen next? 30 September 2021 by Torsten Bell The past 18 months have been full of surprises, all too often on the downside. But as well as the miracle of vaccines, we should also celebrate the triumph of the coronavirus job retention scheme (JRS), or furlough as we’ve come to know it. Turn the clock back to early 2020, and who’d have guessed … Continued READ MORE
