Demographics The UK’s demographic squeeze What do the next few years hold for the UK’s population and demographic makeup, and what does that mean for the public finances? 29 April 2026 by Charlie McCurdy and Elliott Christensen This article was originally published on our Substack. There are some mixed messages floating around about the UK’s population. On the one hand, we’ve seen record levels of immigration. On the other, we’re facing a baby bust. So how does it all shake out? The ONS’s latest release offers some clarity. Their 2024-based population projections, published yesterday, show … Continued READ MORE
Generations· Demographics Wanted: two children People still want kids, so why is the number of births at a 150-year low? RF's Charlie McCurdy on the material constraints that lie behind the recent British baby bust. 2 April 2026 by Charlie McCurdy This post was originally published on our Substack. Back when my mum was my age – I’m in my early-30s – she had three kids. I don’t have any yet, and lots of my friends are in the same boat. I hope you (and my family) don’t mind this personal insight. I say this only … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work The nature of the post-Brexit migration change is different to what many expected 25 May 2023 by Charlie McCurdy The latest migration statistics, covering the year ending December 2022, confirm that the post-Brexit era has brought significant changes in migration patterns. The predictable headline was that overall net migration reached a record high, but the labour market nature of this change differs from what many expected – with the migrant workforce growing slower than … Continued READ MORE
Migration If fewer workers migrate to Britain, our own will need greater mobility Migration policy can complement an economic strategy, but it can’t stand in for one. 23 February 2022 by Kathleen Henehan One of the main benefits often cited of leaving the European Union was that the UK regained control of its borders, with the Prime Minister arguing that bringing in a more controlled migration regime would be key to enabling the UK to become a high wage economy. Others fear that the shift to a new, … Continued READ MORE
Demographics· Political parties and elections The middle aged, not the middle class, are the new swing voters 2 November 2019 by Torsten Bell An election is coming. You may have noticed. The early phase of any campaign is the contest about what the election will actually be about – where the battle lines will lie. You want it to be all about Brexit if you’re gunning for the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats, and everything but Brexit if you’re … Continued READ MORE
Generations· Demographics· Political parties and elections My Generation, Baby: The Politics of Age in Brexit Britain 29 March 2019 by Laura Gardiner and Torsten Bell Generational politics is nothing new, but the extent of the profound generational cleavage that has emerged in British electoral politics is novel. The Brexit vote and the 2017 general election put generational politics centre‐stage, eclipsing in some ways the traditionally dominant role of class. Our two main parties now rely on age‐based coalitions of support—on … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work Migratory patterns in Britain’s labour market 13 November 2018 by Stephen Clarke More records tumbled in the UK labour market this summer. On jobs, we had good news on quantity and quality as the people in full-time employment reached a record high of nearly 24 million. And this record high is all the more striking as it came alongside a record fall in the number of EU … Continued READ MORE
Generations· Demographics· Political parties and elections Demography is the new class war 21 September 2018 by Torsten Bell The real question about this year’s Labour Party conference is what on earth everyone will talk about for four days. The supposed Brexit barney will be a damp squib and leadership rows have disappeared. So here’s a suggestion to fill the awkward silences: it’s time Labour talked about the arrival of generational divides in our … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work MAC to the future 18 September 2018 by Stephen Clarke This morning the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) released the final report in its year-long (plus) investigation into EU migration. The report is arguably the most comprehensive assessment of how migration has affected the UK over the past two decades, dealing with topics as diverse as the labour market, housing, public finances and subjective wellbeing. In … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work The most biddable of them all? 16 July 2018 by Lindsay Judge This piece originally appeared on Times Red Box. Today’s headlines tell us once again that net migration from the EU to the UK is down significantly since the Brexit referendum, with record levels of emigration of EU citizens and a large drop in the number of people coming from the continent looking for work. In … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Savings & debt· Demographics What could the latest life expectancy projections mean for the State Pension Age? 5 December 2017 by David Finch At the end of last week, the ONS published the latest future projections showing its best estimate of how long we can expect to live. We don’t automatically associate our living standards with factors like health or how many years of life we may have. But just like income, life expectancy is an important indicator … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work Should I stay or should I go now? 25 August 2017 by Stephen Clarke Yesterday it emerged that the Home Office incorrectly sent around 100 deportation letters to EU citizens. Although the government has apologised, it would appear from today’s immigration statistics that many EU nationals are doing the Home Office’s job for them. Net migration (immigration minus emigration) fell to 246,000 in the year to March 2017, the … Continued READ MORE
Social security· Generations· Demographics· Political parties and elections The welfare gap between young and old is set to widen, whoever wins the next election 26 May 2017 by David Finch We love a good welfare row in elections. Back in 2015, Labour was branded the ‘welfare party’ while the Conservatives were reluctant to divulge the details of the £12 billion cuts package they planned to announced shortly after the election. A cynic might wonder if they were planning to ditch that pledge in the … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work Migration and the past, present and future of the British labour market 25 May 2017 by Stephen Clarke Today we got another major clue into what’s been happening to migration since the referendum and, how it might evolve as we negotiate our exit from the EU. Looking first to the migration story of the recent past, in the year to December 2016 net migration was down by 84,000 to 248,000 compared to 2015. … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work First signs of falling migration after the Brexit vote 23 March 2017 by Stephen Clarke Last month, we heard that net migration had fallen below 300,000 for the first time in two years in the third quarter of 2016. In addition to this, experts are predicting further falls while businesses – particularly in sectors that employ significant numbers of migrants – are voicing concerns that they will soon face labour … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work What might lower migration mean for workers, employers and government policy? 16 August 2016 by Stephen Clarke Immigration was one of the most important issues in the recent EU referendum, with some polls even putting it as people’s biggest concern. There has been much debate about whether widespread migration has squeezed the pay of British workers. This often gets pulled towards two extremes; some argue that migration has no effect on people’s … Continued READ MORE
