Macroeconomic policy Is the UK recession ready? 9 September 2019 by Torsten Bell The good news is we’ve now managed a recession free decade since the financial crisis. The bad news is that history teaches us this is quite unusual – booms and bust haven’t been abolished. This matters – downturns have very high costs, even when they’re not of the global financial crisis earth-shattering sort. On average … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Another summer blockbuster (on fiscal risks) from the OBR 18 July 2019 by Richard Hughes Today the OBR published its second Fiscal Risks Report, a comprehensive assessment of all the things that could go wrong with the UK’s public finances over the next 50 years. And it is a summer blockbuster – topping out at 293 pages in total. Fiscal risk analysis is the new cutting edge in fiscal policymaking, … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Monetary policy The Bank has increased borrowing costs, but is personal debt bubbling over? 5 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Following a period of double digit growth in consumer credit over the last year or so, there have been some concerns about the reappearance of a debt bubble in the UK economy. In truth though, household borrowing currently resembles less of a bubble and more of two day-old helium balloon: partially deflated and looking worse … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Crunching the numbers on today’s rate rise 2 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Interest rates are up. It may be a very modest increase but, for any number of reasons, the news is big. Ten years on from the last rise, today’s 0.25 percentage point increase in the Bank’s base rate (taking it back to the 0.5 per cent it sat at between March 2009 and August 2016) … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy The rate rise debate should prompt wider questions about the living standards impact of monetary policy 1 November 2017 by Torsten Bell Tomorrow the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade, kicking off the first tightening cycle for monetary policy in 14 years. Whether or not the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee behaves as markets anticipate, the expectation has triggered two big questions. First there is the macro question … Continued READ MORE
