Public spending· Economy and public finances Third time lucky Has the Spending review delivered for middle Britain? Thursday 12 June 2025 The Government’s fiscal events have had a shaky start so far. The Autumn Budget unveiled £41 billion of tax rises by 2029-30, while the Spring Statement was dominated by controversial welfare reform that will hit poorer families the hardest. The upcoming Spending Review provides a fresh opportunity to focus on growth and living standards, as it sets out the details of over £40 billion additional annual day-to-day public service spending, and over £100 billion worth of infrastructure funding. But with Britain facing the strong headwinds of global economic turbulence and strained public services, will it be third time lucky for the Chancellor? READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances How to spend £100 billion wisely Which areas of public investment should be prioritised at the Spending Review? Tuesday 29 April 2025 The UK’s record on public investment is poor by international standards – spending less than the OECD average for much of the past two decades. To her credit, the Chancellor has boosted capital spending plans by over £100 billion over this Parliament and put in place fiscal rules that reduce the likelihood of cutting investment when fiscal belt-tightening is needed. But that £100 billion won’t go as far as some might think, with much absorbed by reversing cuts planned by the previous Government. And with Britain’s social, economic and defence infrastructure all under strain, tough choices await on 11 June. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spring cleaning the public finances Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring Statement and the UK economic outlook Thursday 27 March 2025 The Chancellor set out her first ever Budget less than five months ago, but the UK’s economic outlook has changed considerably since then. Bad news on growth, inflation and borrowing point to a deterioration in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast, leaving the chances of Rachel Reeves meeting her own ‘non-negotiable’ fiscal rules on a knife edge. The Spring Statement is starting to feel a lot like a Spring Budget… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The headroom bind What does the Chancellor need to do to hit her fiscal rules? Monday 17 March 2025 In her Budget last Autumn, the Chancellor announced the biggest tax rises on record to boost public spending and investment by over £300 billion across the Parliament. She also announced new, binding fiscal rules and left herself £10 billion of headroom against meeting them. But the UK economy – and the world – has changed in the past five months… READ MORE
Economy and public finances The jitters-bug How worrying data and market unrest could affect Britain’s economic outlook Thursday 30 January 2025 Government debt markets across the world are having a jittery start to 2025, and the UK is one of the most affected economies with gilt yields volatile amid concerns about stagflation, though they have started to fall back in recent weeks. While these movements pass most people by, they can have a material impact on their living standards. For policy makers, a deteriorating economic outlook may need to be confronted too – either through a changed path for interest rates, or tough choices on tax and spend. READ MORE
Economy and public finances A squeezed middle of the decade? The political economy outlook for 2025 Tuesday 7 January 2025 2025 is shaping up to be a big year in UK politics, as the Government’s ambitions set out across various White Papers start to be turned into deliverable action on the ground. The Spending Review could also set the tone for the rest of the Parliament, as the Chancellor sets out how to invest £100 billion wisely, and Ministers show how they intend to improve public services in the face of severe financial constraints. The living standards outlook is no less challenging. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Tough medicine Assessing the Chancellor’s options in her first Budget Monday 14 October 2024 What tax and spend decisions might the Chancellor consider in order to put the public finances on a more even keel, and what might this mean for family finances? Can the tough medicine in the Budget be squared with the need to kickstart growth? How might the new Government navigate the politics of a post-election Budget? And what could this mean for the rest of the Parliament? READ MORE
General Election 2024· Public spending· Economy and public finances State crafting Changes and challenges for managing the public finances Wednesday 5 June 2024 Tax and spend are at the heart of every general election – understandably as they represent the most significant choices made by most governments. The size and shape of the state has changed substantially since 2010. Despite spending cuts and tax rises, public debt levels are up. Whoever wins the next election will have to … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Game changer? Assessing the Budget’s economic, and electoral, impact Thursday 7 March 2024 The upcoming Spring Budget may be the last big fiscal event before the General Election, one of few chances for the government to set the terms of the economic debate. And with the government trailing heavily in the polls, and the economy entering a mild recession at the end of last year, the pressure is … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Tax cuts today, spending cuts tomorrow? How the Budget might shape the General Election and beyond Wednesday 21 February 2024 An election is coming, and therefore so are tax cuts in the Budget on 6th March. But the size of those tax cuts are dependent on the amount of fiscal room for manoeuvre the Chancellor has. And their shape will reflect where his political and economic priorities lie. Plus tax cuts come in a context … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Turning a corner? The political and economic outlook for a critical election year Monday 8 January 2024 The worst of the cost of living crisis appears to be behind us, with inflation more than halving since its peak. But 2024 may not be plain sailing economically, and it certainly won’t be politically with an election in store. While wages are at last growing faster than prices, economic growth has flatlined while taxes, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Autumn (Statement) Watch Thursday 23 November 2023 The economy is set to be a defining feature of the run in to next General Election. Inflation is falling, but so too is consumer confidence. Tax revenues are going up, but NHS waiting lists aren’t coming down. In the Autumn Statement the Chancellor will be navigating these short-term challenges, but also addressing longer-term questions … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Preparing the pitch What to expect in the upcoming Autumn Statement Monday 6 November 2023 The Chancellor has two just two more fiscal events in which to prepare the economic pitch for the upcoming General Election. The backdrop is a challenging and uncertain economic environment, alongside huge pressure on both public services and finances. With the Prime Minister making a virtue of the need to take tough decisions, the Chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Economy and public finances Enlightened economics Lessons from Adam Smith on the economic challenges facing modern Britain Wednesday 13 September 2023 Adam Smith was a leading political economy thinker of the Scottish enlightenment in the mid-late 18th century. But as the “Father of Capitalism” his pioneering work on free market economics has influenced politicians, philosophers and economists throughout the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries too. But modern Britain – as well as other advanced economies – … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Into calmer waters? Assessing Budget 2023 Thursday 16 March 2023 The UK has gone through four Chancellors, three Prime Ministers and entered a cost-of-living crisis in 500 days since the last Budget way back in October 2021. On 15 March, Jeremy Hunt will unveil his first Budget, hoping to signpost the UK economy’s way towards a new, calmer, phase of lower inflation and higher growth. … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Back to basics Budget? What Jeremy Hunt’s March Budget has in store Monday 6 March 2023 2022 marked a tough year, with soaring inflation sparking a cost-of-living crisis and repeated government announcements to tackle it. And that was before the Autumn economic policy chaos. The economics and politics are now calmer. Inflation – and most importantly gas prices – is falling, and the Chancellor hopes to deliver a more ‘normal’ Budget … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances A fiscal reset? Assessing the Autumn Statement 2022 Friday 18 November 2022 The new Prime Minister and Chancellor have set one central objective for the Autumn Statement – restore economic credibility. They have set the test for doing so as putting the public finances back on a sustainable path by ensuring that debt is falling as a share of the economy. The size of the fiscal reset … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Under new management Where will the new Prime Minister steer the UK economy? Tuesday 1 November 2022 Britain is in the midst of a political and economic crisis, with four Chancellors and three Prime Ministers in four months. And with the latest political turmoil triggered by attempts to completely rewrite economic policy, the new Prime Minister is under intense pressure to demonstrate his economic credibility, calm the markets and reduce the pressure … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Living standards· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Economic growth What next? The impact of Trussonomics, tax cuts and market turmoil Thursday 29 September 2022 The last few days have seen a radical reshaping of the Government’s economic policy and a radical reaction from financial markets. Out have gone both Treasury orthodoxy and the legacy of the Johnson premiership, and in are lower taxes, higher borrowing – and higher borrowing costs as spooked markets respond. Will this new strategy boost … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Chatting to Chancellors Book launch for The Chancellors by Howard Davies, featuring former Chancellor George Osborne Monday 30 May 2022 The nature of British economic policy, and the Treasury’s role in directing it, have ebbed and flowed over the past 25 years. Monetary policy was ceded to the Bank of England in 1997, but the Treasury then extended its grip over domestic policy. The last decade has seen it respond to two once-in-a-lifetime economic crises, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Waiting for spring Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring Statement Thursday 24 March 2022 Britain entered 2022 with a recovery resilient to Omicron and tax revenues coming in billions higher than expected. But good news on the public finances has been matched by troubling news for family finances as inflation soared and living standards have been squeezed. The conflict in Ukraine has further clouded the UK’s economic outlook, as … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Economic growth Bidenomics Lessons for the UK Tuesday 15 March 2022 Speech by Jared Bernstein, Member of the Council for Economic Advisors under President Biden, with response by Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves Joe Biden came into office with an ambitious economic plan for building back American prosperity after the pandemic – with policy objectives ranging from the renewal of infrastructure and greater childcare support, to more … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Economy and public finances Catch 2022 What does the end of a global pandemic and the start of a European conflict mean for Britain’s economic outlook? Monday 14 March 2022 The end of the Covid economic crisis is finally in sight. But it has swiftly been replaced by a terrifying conflict in Europe that threatens lives in Ukraine and livelihoods far beyond its borders. The UK’s immediate post-Covid economy thankfully doesn’t include the lengthy dole queues that normally follow a recession. But it instead faces … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Public spending· Economy and public finances Pressure points Why the state is getting bigger and what we do about it Thursday 10 February 2022 The UK that exits the pandemic has a bigger state than the one that went into it. The 2020s will bring further pressure for the state to grow or our tax revenues to shrink, including from our ageing society and net zero ambitions. But previous approaches to responding to such pressure – from shrinking the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Budgeting for Britain What the Budget and Spending Review tell us about the Government’s economic strategy Thursday 28 October 2021 Rishi Sunak has had to make a flurry of major fiscal announcements during his 18-months as Chancellor amidst the Covid-19 crisis. At last, with the worse of the crisis behind us, he will hope to be able to set-out an economic plan for post-pandemic Britain in his Budget and Spending Review next Wednesday. However, with … Continued READ MORE
