Brexit & trade A tariff-fying start 4 February 2025 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites Over the last few days, President Trump has turned his campaign promises into reality, announcing major tariff hikes. But if the spotlight shifts to the UK, we should be cautious about retaliating. A tariff-fying start On 1 February, Trump announced steep new tariffs on the US’s three biggest trade partners: 25 per cent on Canada … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Fiscal policy Turbulent times How should the Chancellor respond to recent movements in the gilt market? 10 January 2025 by Emily Fry and Cara Pacitti Turbulent gilt markets, a devaluing pound and speculation about the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgrading its economic forecasts is not the start to 2025 the Chancellor was hoping for. What is causing all the fuss? On 9 January, the UK 10-year gilt yield closed at 4.8 per cent, up from 4.58 per cent just … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Britain needs to acknowledge rather than deny its weaknesses in goods trade, and leverage its strength in services 13 May 2024 by Emily Fry The UK economy swiftly exited its recession in the first quarter of 2024 thanks in part to an improving trade balance. This is good news – but an improving trade balance is not the same as a successful trade performance. Indeed, GDP was boosted despite the UK’s total trade with the rest of the world … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Britain’s post-Brexit trade patterns are finally emerging in the data 28 February 2024 by Emily Fry The impact of Brexit on trade in the first two years after leaving the EU was complicated by global events: first the pandemic, and then the spike in energy prices. This means the 2023 data – the third year of trade post-Brexit – is the first real opportunity to see what’s going on. At first … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Britain needs to get serious about an economic strategy towards a more prosperous, fairer, greener 2030s – can you help? Call for policy ideas to help Britain become a fairer, greener, more prosperous nation 6 October 2022 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites The UK’s cost-of-living crisis – with rocketing food and energy prices – is making everyone poorer, and is particularly harmful to low-to-middle income households. But this recent crisis isn’t isolated, because the Britain that confronts it suffers from a toxic combination of high inequality and protracted slow growth. The UK also has great strengths … Continued READ MORE
