The economics of elections, mental health and LGBTQ issues Top of the Charts 7 May 2021 Afternoon all, Turns out David Cameron had a cunning plan. Calling and losing a Brexit referendum may have cost him his job, but it’s proved electoral mana for the party he left behind. It’s hard to imagine a wedge issue that would quite so neatly turbo-charge England’s decades long political realignment. And do so in … Continued READ MORE
Choosing the right neighbours, spouses and lottery numbers Top of the Charts 30 April 2021 Afternoon all, Glad to see we’ve had another Britain knocking it out of the park week. Our answer to a global pandemic very much not under control, and an economy in no way back to normal, is a ‘cash for curtains’ row. It’s not just the substance of it that’s demeaning: even the name of … Continued READ MORE
Getting Britain towards a zero-carbon, zero-destitution economy Top of the Charts 11 December 2020 Afternoon all, And no, I haven’t got a clue what’s going on either. Well, that’s not quite right, given it’s pretty clear what’s going on is a colossal failure by us and the EU to sort something in both of our economic and geo-political interests. But I’ve got no clue where this mess ends up. … Continued READ MORE
New jobs, lazy kids, and trouble in the French supermarket Top of the Charts 20 November 2020 Afternoon all, I can’t quite tell which bits of the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn is and isn’t in these days, while the line appears to be that Priti Patel is a bully but not an intentional one (whatever that means). At least this style of facing both ways on personnel decisions is in no way … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Tax Fiscal multi-tasking 12 November 2020 by Torsten Bell Multi-tasking can be hard. Ask any parent that survived lockdown by combining work with something resembling home schooling. But it’s also a fact of life, so the trick is to manage multiple objectives well, not wish them away. This is true for people and our Government. Indeed, fiscal multi-tasking is what the 2020s are all … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Worse for some The economic pain is being felt differently by different people. And for many of them, rock bottom is still to come 23 October 2020 by Torsten Bell The pan in pandemic is a dangerous prefix. While the virus now straddles the globe, those three letters can give the impression of an equality of impact that is very far from the truth. On the health side this is blindingly obvious, with death rates from the virus climbing sharply with age and, as in … Continued READ MORE
History tells us to brace for 1990s-style tax rises rather than spending cuts 21 October 2020 by Torsten Bell A common human flaw is to believe the future will look like our immediate past. If something unusual has happened we conclude it’s likely to happen again. The person unlucky enough to be struck by lightning spends more time than the rest of us worrying about storms. That a lucky gambler thinks they’ll get lucky … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Intergenerational Centre We must not let coronavirus exacerbate Britain’s intergenerational inequalities still further 8 October 2020 by David Willetts One of the biggest challenges the Government faces is to offer young people the same kind of opportunities that the Boomers enjoyed when we were young. The pay of young workers is no higher than it was ten or fifteen years ago. And getting started on the housing ladder is much harder – though the … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Three big decisions for the Chancellor on the future of the Job Retention Scheme 28 May 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor will be announcing details for ‘Phase 2’ of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) later today or tomorrow. With 8.4 million jobs furloughed – one-third of all private sector employees – any changes to the JRS will have a big impact both on the scale of the unemployment crisis and on the speed … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 An unprecedented but essential pledge to underwrite wages and strengthen the safety net 20 March 2020 by Torsten Bell Today, the Chancellor announced a hugely welcome and unprecedented pledge to pay 80 per cent of the wages of employees without work to do in struggling firms – a crucial step change in the government’s economic response to the current crisis. The Chancellors intervention was profound but necessary, as the current crisis is causing a … Continued READ MORE
Trusting the experts on pandemics, politics and economic research Top of the Charts 13 March 2020 Afternoon all, Hope everyone’s had a relaxing week. We have not. Budgets are generally fairly dark, sleep-deprived times in RF towers anyway, but coronavirus-infected Budgets, where loads of the numbers are out of date and don’t reflect what the Chancellor has actually announced, are the work of the devil. We’re in uncharted unchartable territory. That … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Coronavirus and the benefits system: What support is available? 9 March 2020 by Karl Handscomb With the continuing increase in coronavirus cases, much of the current debate has rightly focused on Statutory Sick Pay (SSP). The Government’s announcement to extend SSP to day one of absence is welcome, but low earners and the self-employed are not entitled to SSP. This poses a challenge for protecting family incomes from the spread … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty Charting the UK’s lost decade of income growth 5 March 2020 by Adam Corlett Unlike with employment or GDP, detailed data on disposable household incomes comes with a long lag. So today the ONS released its main household income results for 2018-19. There will be more data to come in future (including poverty numbers later this month), but what we’ve learned today is not reassuring about post-referendum living standards. … Continued READ MORE
The problems with getting into schools – and closing them down Top of the Charts 28 February 2020 Afternoon all, Heathrow isn’t going ahead. Coronavirus is. It turns out that bugs are better than Brits at travelling the world. Even if we had a runway the whole proto-pandemic thing means flying is so 2019. But no over-reacting please – we’ve only just lived down the embarrassment of the run on Northern Rock, we … Continued READ MORE
Backing scientists, sacking ministers, and tracking millionaires Top of the Charts 14 February 2020 Afternoon all, I’m hoping today is going to be a calmer day. At a minimum the goal is to get through writing TOTCs without resigning. There’s no special advisers to worry about but the trustees do make us share mugs and spreadsheets in RF towers, which is quite frankly more than any self-respecting policy type … Continued READ MORE
Fixing capitalism, politics and the patriarchy Top of the Charts 7 February 2020 Afternoon all, This week TOTCs comes to you from a Welsh mountainside of the vertically upwards variety. Now, this isn’t the perfect place for perusing economics reads, but you’re either committed to ‘levelling up’ or you’re not. These giddy Welsh heights also allow for some perspective on this week’s Brexit “it’s done but not over” speeches. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills The new government needs to focus on the alarming fall in apprenticeship starts 3 February 2020 by Kathleen Henehan With a new year, a new-ish government and the country soon to (officially) exit the European Union, there’s hope that policy makers will renew their focus on domestic concerns. And given the figures published today (Thursday) showing an alarming fall in apprenticeship starts – a greater focus on this issue would be a good place … Continued READ MORE
Wellbeing and mental health Would a richer decade have meant a happier one? 31 December 2019 by Gavin Kelly Consider the good fortune of a country far richer than the UK. Its economy is over £300bn bigger and its workers are almost a quarter more productive than Britain’s, enjoying wages that are typically £7k higher. Households are flush enough to spend thousands more on consumption, just as public services are far better resourced. This … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay What’s in store for jobs and pay in 2020 Top of the Charts 27 December 2019 2019 – a good year for jobs and pay, defying the growth slowdown 2019 was a good year for the UK’s labour market, with the country set to enter the new decade with not only record employment but, after a decade long squeeze, record pay. The six-year jobs boom came to an end, but record … Continued READ MORE
Top dogs and cash kings Top of the Charts 20 December 2019 Afternoon all, It’s been a busy week. New(ish) government, new (WEIRD) Cats film, and new top dog at the Bank of England. It’s all been going on. What’s clear is that there’s a lot of adjusting to be done. It’s ages since a government had a real majority. Politicians and journalists are slowly waking … Continued READ MORE
Election dissection Top of the Charts 13 December 2019 Afternoon all, We’re not doing reads this week, we’re doing reflections. There is after all a lot to reflect on from last night – on what happened and where it leaves our politics and our country. I hope it’s of some use to you whether you’re spending your weekend in party mood, or at a … Continued READ MORE
Wealth booms and electoral busts Top of the Charts 6 December 2019 Afternoon all, Boris Johnson has decided it’s Holly Willoughby and Phillip Schofield yes, Andrew Neil no. Apparently this is the punters’ fault for not liking tough interviews any more – so shame on all of us, and definitely not on the PM for running scared. In more positive news, the whole thing is nearly over. … Continued READ MORE
We need to think bigger when it comes to reforms to our jobs market 18 November 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson The Conservatives are spending this election campaign celebrating record employment. The Labour party is spending it deriding the UK’s lousy pay performance, and high levels of insecure work. These contrasting pictures are both true: we have a very tight labour market, but the issue of job quality remains. Our flexible labour market has enabled the … Continued READ MORE
Good patronage, bad brothers and evil tech Top of the Charts 15 November 2019 Afternoon all, Well it’s turning into an “anything but Brexit” election. This week’s focused on everything from the NHS to truly awful floods. It’s also raised the single biggest question of the election so far: how on earth has any human being managed to avoid knowing the words to ‘the wheels on the bus’. I … Continued READ MORE
A slowing economy is starting to feed through into the labour market 12 November 2019 by Hannah Slaughter We’re starting to see signs that the slowing economy may now be feeding through to the labour market. Even as GDP growth has faltered in recent months, and with Brexit uncertainty ramped up and productivity stagnant, the labour market had remained strong. The employment rate had reached a record high, with pay growth improving. And … Continued READ MORE
