Demographics The UK’s demographic squeeze What do the next few years hold for the UK’s population and demographic makeup, and what does that mean for the public finances? 29 April 2026 by Charlie McCurdy and Elliott Christensen This article was originally published on our Substack. There are some mixed messages floating around about the UK’s population. On the one hand, we’ve seen record levels of immigration. On the other, we’re facing a baby bust. So how does it all shake out? The ONS’s latest release offers some clarity. Their 2024-based population projections, published yesterday, show … Continued READ MORE
Generations· Demographics Wanted: two children People still want kids, so why is the number of births at a 150-year low? RF's Charlie McCurdy on the material constraints that lie behind the recent British baby bust. 2 April 2026 by Charlie McCurdy This post was originally published on our Substack. Back when my mum was my age – I’m in my early-30s – she had three kids. I don’t have any yet, and lots of my friends are in the same boat. I hope you (and my family) don’t mind this personal insight. I say this only … Continued READ MORE
Work Short-term pay pain eases, but long-term legacy leaves scars 15 August 2023 by Charlie McCurdy Today’s labour market stats offer a glimmer of good news when it comes to pay: real wages in June were higher than a year ago for the first time in 18 months, offering a welcome respite for workers in Britain. But this welcome news for workers won’t be shared by policy makers at the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work The nature of the post-Brexit migration change is different to what many expected 25 May 2023 by Charlie McCurdy The latest migration statistics, covering the year ending December 2022, confirm that the post-Brexit era has brought significant changes in migration patterns. The predictable headline was that overall net migration reached a record high, but the labour market nature of this change differs from what many expected – with the migrant workforce growing slower than … Continued READ MORE
Work Five take-aways from the 2022 ASHE release: a bad year for pay growth, but good news on pay inequality 27 October 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy The ONS published their annual release from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) on October 26th. It’s not the timeliest data – it was collected from a survey of employers all the way back in April, and we already know from other data sources how pay has evolved through to July and August. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Growth· Cities and regions Levelling-up: The Blair-Osborne Project 2 February 2022 by Lindsay Judge and Charlie McCurdy There have been many attempts in the past to reduce the gaps between richer and poorer parts of the UK. But despite progress on some measures (most notably employment and pay), geographic disparities remain substantial and stubborn, particularly when it comes to productivity. The gap in typical pay between Kensington and Chelsea and Scarborough has … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Work· Cities and regions· Political parties and elections Election 2019: how Britain’s North-South divide is changing Closing the divide once and for all is a challenge all political parties say they want to embrace 6 December 2019 by Charlie McCurdy The North-South divide is a theme often used by – and against – politicians to highlight inequality in the UK, and election time is no exception. But this divide has evolved over time, and is by no means the only geographical divide in the country. The big economic divide Productivity – or how efficiently … Continued READ MORE
Work Real wage growth has finally returned to pre-referendum levels 16 April 2019 by Charlie McCurdy Today’s labour market stats has bought good news in terms of both jobs and pay. Employment remains at a record high and unemployment at a 40 year low. But what really stands out in today’s figures is real wage growth. This has finally returned to pre-referendum levels providing a long awaited boost to real earnings … Continued READ MORE
Work Minimum Wage 20th anniversary special Top of the Charts 29 March 2019 by Torsten Bell and Charlie McCurdy Afternoon all, It’s an historic day today. Lots of people were planning a party/wake. Big ones. But things have got derailed. No-one can agree on what to celebrate/mourn – or even when to celebrate/mourn it. There’s a serious danger no-one gets a party at all tonight. But don’t worry – TOTC is here to turn … Continued READ MORE
Work· Cities and regions (Almost) every part of the country is celebrating Britain’s latest jobs surge 19 March 2019 by Charlie McCurdy We’re now a decade on from the Great Recession where the UK’s labour market took a turn for the worse. Back in 2009, we were panicking that unemployment could hit over three million. Today, we’re celebrating the highest employment rate – at 76.1 per cent – since World War II, while unemployment is also at … Continued READ MORE
