Labour market Growing, but for how long? 16 May 2023 by Nye Cominetti This morning’s labour market data from the ONS had encouraging news in the shape of rising employment, coming from a reversal among the under 50s of the post-pandemic fall in participation. But inactivity among the over 50s and among those with long-term illnesses remains stubbornly high, there continue to be signs that firms’ demand for … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Good news in the latest labour market data for the Bank and the Chancellor, but bad news for the general public 14 February 2023 by Hannah Slaughter and Nye Cominetti This morning’s labour market stats bring good news and bad news. An uptick in workforce participation is good news for everyone, while signs of weakening pay pressure might ease the Bank of England’s inflation concerns. But a wider cooling of demand (seen in falling vacancies, and rising unemployment and redundancies) don’t bode well for workers. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Five take-aways from the 2022 ASHE release: a bad year for pay growth, but good news on pay inequality 27 October 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy The ONS published their annual release from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) on October 26th. It’s not the timeliest data – it was collected from a survey of employers all the way back in April, and we already know from other data sources how pay has evolved through to July and August. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The labour market is making history for the wrong reasons 16 August 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter The backdrop to today’s labour market data has been discussion around the increasingly concerning picture for the winter, with expectations of future increases in the energy price cap continuing to ratchet upwards. But today’s data reminds us that when it comes to pay at least, workers are already facing very tough conditions, even before the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market A tight labour market, but early signs of cooling 14 June 2022 by Nye Cominetti This morning’s labour market statistics from the ONS showed a familiar picture of a tight labour market alongside a deepening real wage squeeze. But there are also some signs of a turning point, with wider economic weakness at the start of 2022 potentially feeding into softening labour demand. A now familiar picture of a tight … Continued READ MORE
A tightening labour market won’t spare workers a big pay squeeze in 2022 15 February 2022 by Nye Cominetti The latest labour market statistics from the ONS showed the labour market continuing to tighten despite the Omicron variant. There are tentative signs that this is starting to feed into stronger pay growth, but not by enough to keep pace with prices, meaning workers’ wages are being squeezed in real terms. The labour market … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay January’s labour market data confirms 2022 will be the year of the pay squeeze 18 January 2022 by Nye Cominetti The big news in this morning’s labour market stats was confirmation that pay is now falling in real terms – the pay squeeze will be one of the defining features of 2022. There is better news on jobs, with falling unemployment suggesting the labour market continues to tighten, but vacancies have fallen from their high … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Intergenerational Centre Three reasons to be concerned about job losses among older workers A U-Shaped crisis 29 April 2021 by Nye Cominetti Young people have been at the epicentre of the Covid-19 crisis. The severe restrictions and lockdown closures of social sectors of the economy – such as hospitality, retail, arts and leisure, where young workers are concentrated – has led millions of our youngest workers to be put on furlough or, worse still, lose their jobs. … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Millions of furloughed workers have returned to work – but support for hard-hit sectors will be needed beyond October Analysing the HMRC Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme data 21 August 2020 by Nye Cominetti This morning, HMRC published its latest round of statistics on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS). For the first time, we have a time series of the number of furloughed workers, as opposed to the cumulative total, meaning we can see how use of the scheme has evolved since the start of April. Here are … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Low pay· Pay Any further questions? From 'From loud claps to hard cash A new settlement for Britain’s low-paid workers' 3 June 2020 by Nye Cominetti We often have more questions submitted for our event Q&A sessions than we’re able to answer. Where this is the case, we’ll endeavour to respond to a selection of the most interesting or most representative questions that went unanswered. The questions below were submitted to our panel for the event From loud claps to hard … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Five things we’ve learned from today’s labour market data 19 May 2020 by Hannah Slaughter and Nye Cominetti This morning the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the first major set of labour market data that covers the lockdown period, with data from April on vacancies, claimant unemployment, and employee jobs. Of course, the scale of the crisis has been clear for some time in other data – including Universal Credit claims and … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay A record-breaking labour market – but not all records are welcome 18 February 2020 by Nye Cominetti This morning’s labour market statistics broke records left and right. Mostly this was good news, with a new high on the employment rate and a (belated) return to peak pay. But as Linford Christie famously said, if you want to be a record breaker … it’s a good idea to look at the full range … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay 2019 has been a good year for employment and earnings 17 December 2019 by Nye Cominetti New ONS data out today – the last of 2019 – shows that we’ve approached the end of the year with the labour market in, to coin a phrase, a strong and stable position. Strong because employment remains at record levels – hitting a new high in the three months to October of 76.2 per … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Low pay· Pay Never had it so good? Almost back to peak pay 7 November 2019 by Nye Cominetti The last time pay peaked was in August 2007. Average weekly pay was £513, measured in 2019 prices. Over a decade later, pay is finally set to go higher. In August 2019, the latest month for which we have our most timely earnings data, average weekly pay was £511. With real pay growth at a … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Living Wage The evidence backing a higher minimum wage is growing 4 November 2019 by Nye Cominetti You wait for a minimum wage report and then three come along at once. This morning the Treasury published Arin Dube’s keenly awaited review of minimum wage policy in the UK. Dube backs the Chancellor’s ambitions to raise the rate to two-thirds of median hourly pay, but offers useful honesty about the risks involved, as … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Pay· Inequality & poverty A good year for pay? Five things we learned from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2019 29 October 2019 by Nye Cominetti This morning the ONS published the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) for 2019 – the most detailed data on employee pay available, telling us about high and low pay, the gender pay gap, and more besides. As a think-tank focusing on raising living standards, this is pretty crucial data for us, and for … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Has the labour market reached a turning point? 15 October 2019 by Nye Cominetti On headline measures the labour market remains healthy. Conditions are tight and this continues to feed into decent real pay growth – 2.0 per cent in the three months to August 2019, not far off the levels we came to expect before the recession. But alongside positive headlines are signs that the labour market is … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay The labour market is delivering on jobs and pay – it is vital for living standards that we keep it that way 10 September 2019 by Nye Cominetti A tight labour market is finally delivering decent pay growth. In the three months to July 2019, average weekly regular pay (i.e. excluding bonuses) grew by 1.9 per cent on the previous year (slightly down on the previous month). Given that average real pay grew by 2.1 per cent in the eight years prior to … Continued READ MORE
Pay How to get a pay rise 19 August 2019 by Nye Cominetti How do you get a pay rise? You could try to wrangle more out of your employer with canny negotiating tactics. That may help. But it’s not how the majority of us see our pay rise – and occasionally fall – over time. In practice, other factors are likely to be more important. Some of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay Is the minimum wage pushing people into self-employment? 29 July 2019 by Nye Cominetti Two big changes in the labour market over the past two decades have been the rise in self-employment and the introduction and uprating of the minimum wage. Is there a connection between these trends? Legally, of course, there is no connection – the minimum wage applies to employees only. But economically, we would expect one. … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Labour market· Pay Two and a half reasons to be cheerful about our strong and stable labour market 11 June 2019 by Nye Cominetti Today’s labour market statistics were, to use a technical term, boring. In a world of high political and economic drama, our labour market has served up headline measures of real pay growth and employment which basically haven’t changed for four months in a row. We shouldn’t bemoan unchanging numbers. Like air travel and digging tunnels, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay· Living Wage Britain can afford an even higher minimum wage – but we need to tread carefully 30 May 2019 by Nye Cominetti Britain has long had a low pay problem. For most of the last two decades around one in five workers has been in low-paid work – earning less than two-thirds of the typical hourly pay – at any given time. This is a massive problem given how hard it can be to escape low pay. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay The minimum wage: now the only question is ‘how high?’ 30 March 2019 by Nye Cominetti This Monday, the 1st April, 2 million people working minimum-wage jobs will start the week with a pay rise. The National Living Wage (NLW), the rate that applies to 25+ year olds, will rise by 38p, from £7.83 to £8.21. We project that this will increase the number of people paid at the wage floor … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Will 2019 see a ‘new dawn’ for pay? 3 February 2019 by Nye Cominetti What does 2019 have in store for pay? 2018 was the year in which we left behind the pay squeeze of 2017. Nominal growth increased throughout the year, reaching 3 per cent for the first time in a decade. Will this momentum continue into 2019? The Bank of England thinks so. It forecasts average pay … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Good tidings from the UK labour market 11 December 2018 by Nye Cominetti Earlier this year, in a fit of optimism, the ONS moved its monthly labour market stats release from Wednesday to Tuesday morning so that the data would have proper scrutiny before PMQs. With little in the way of voting going on, MPs can now spend the next 24 hours poring over the latest employment and … Continued READ MORE
