Living standards· Incomes· Intergenerational Centre Older people on lower incomes are being ignored 4 May 2017 by Torsten Bell To triple lock or not to triple lock (the state pension). Who has a secret tax bombshell ready for hard working families? It’s not just the rows that are being repeated in what feels something like an election on autopilot, it’s also the groups of voters that the parties are focusing on: pensioners and the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Cities and regions· Economic growth No more robot wars in London 2 May 2017 by Torsten Bell “The robots are coming to take our jobs”, the Evening Standard told Londoners in December 2016. In case that didn’t depress their readers enough, the article went on to spell out the coming doom: “The sheer pace of change in computational power and grinding efficiencies of automation will alter or eliminate many of our jobs, … Continued READ MORE
Cities and regions· Political parties and elections Bored of Brexit? Don’t switch off from the election just yet 21 April 2017 by Torsten Bell The Prime Minister called an election, and told the country it was an election about delivering Brexit. Financial markets and most commentators agreed, focusing their responses on what a surprise vote on 8th June might mean for the shape Brexit takes. But before everyone, leavers and remainers combined, who can’t think of anything worse than … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Uneven reports on inequality 15 April 2017 by Torsten Bell Jeremy says it is racing away. Theresa says it is falling. They can’t both be right, and in fact they’re both wrong. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have an inequality problem British inequality is like bad music: It’s all about the 1980s The gap between the rich and poor hasn’t moved that much in the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Tax U-turn if you don’t want to 15 March 2017 by Torsten Bell U-turns are a staple of politics, in all but the most honeymoon phases of governments. But the Chancellor’s U-turn on his Budget plan to raise National Insurance for the self-employed is a very unusual one, combining as it does a very firm defence of the need for the policy with the decision to scrap it. … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Tax Reforming tax for the self-employed should be welcomed by progressives and fiscal hawks alike 9 March 2017 by Torsten Bell Raising taxes is hard for Chancellors to do. That shouldn’t be a surprise; saints aside, most human beings would rather not have less cash in their pocket. But that can’t be the end of any discussion on tax, unless you’d rather not have any schools, roads or the NHS. That’s why it’s time to put … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Tax Is the Chancellor about to start closing the self-employment tax gap? 7 March 2017 by Torsten Bell The Treasury is worried the self-employed aren’t paying enough tax. Conservative backbenchers are worried the Chancellor might do something about it. But what are the facts lying behind this pre-Budget anxiety outbreak? First things first, the Treasury is right to think there’s a fairly simple issue with the self-employed and tax – they pay a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances This Budget will be a walk in the park for the Chancellor, but there are still mountains to climb 6 March 2017 by Torsten Bell Budgets are generally a stressful time for Chancellors. Explaining whatever news the economic forecasts throw up, selling your big policy shifts and avoiding the opposition unravelling the Budget small print is normally enough to raise the blood pressure of those in Number 11. But this week is likely to feel like a walk in the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The gig economy is a modern twist on an age old world of work dilemma 13 February 2017 by Torsten Bell A visit to the impressive remains of Housesteads Roman Fort on Hadrian’s Wall is always a good idea, not just for the views but also for some incredibly well preserved latrines. On display are stone bases above a trench, on which would have sat wooden boards for soldiers to perch on. As well as offering … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre The annual Grigor McClelland Lecture 10 February 2017 by Torsten Bell Torsten Bell, Director, Resolution Foundation: Renewing the Intergenerational Contract: age and 21st Century inequality Thursday 9 February 5.45pm-8.00pm Alliance Manchester Business School East In July 2016 Resolution Foundation launched its flagship Intergenerational Commission that brings together leading experts from the business, academia and public policy to consider how government, business and wider society can fix … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty Let’s avoid a poor rerun of the 1980s 1 February 2017 by Torsten Bell The 1980s deserve a bad reputation. Sweatbands, leg warmers, and diverse crimes against hair –think perms and mullets, feathered or otherwise. Then we start on the self-indulgence of the music and the fact that Rick Astley was allowed an entire career. Yes we had the Smiths but even Bob Dylan had a bad decade. On … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Britain has enjoyed a mini living standards boom – so why did we vote for change? 29 January 2017 by Torsten Bell The living standards story of last year was record employment, a higher minimum wage and the strongest income growth for a decade. Britain’s never had it so moderately okay. What’s more inequality was either flat or falling – poorer households did better than most. But the democracy story was a Brexit vote for big change … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market Jobs, the rise of Trump and the dangers of fatalism 23 January 2017 by Torsten Bell Even for those not based in the US, it’s been hard to avoid a long weekend of an inauguration, marches, facts and alternative facts. But today Donald Trump settles into “his first business day” (for those counting there’s at least a little over 1,000 of those to come), and jobs are top of his agenda. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards 2016 deserves a better press on living standards – we’ll miss it when it’s gone 21 December 2016 by Torsten Bell 2016 is getting a bad press. The reasons are many and varied, crossing from the tragic to the frivolous. Syria, Berlin, Zika, Prince/Bowie, Trump, and (for some) Brexit – all get included in the charge sheet. But on living standards at least we may well come to look back at 2016 with fond nostalgia – … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Living standards· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Autumn Statement debate has focused on the public finances – but the impact on family Budgets is just as stark 24 November 2016 by Torsten Bell Yesterday’s discussion of the Chancellor’s first (and last) Autumn Statement understandably focused on the very significant increase in borrowing that the first official take on the economic impact of the decision to leave the EU unveiled. In short the Office for Budget Responsibility thinks the Brexit vote is expensive – coming with a price tag … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade The big picture tomorrow will be about the consequences of Brexit, but don’t forget its causes 22 November 2016 by Torsten Bell Like bad pop music, there is a predictable rhythm to all Budgets and Autumn Statements. That’s partly about the theatre on the day – a photo outside Number 11, Chancellor’s statement in the Commons (including the rabbit out of a hat announcement) and the opposition’s response (usually involving shooting foxes and recently Communist book club … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Four decades of discontent Trumps a strong 2015 for US jobs and pay in the race to the White House 9 November 2016 by Torsten Bell Election post-mortems are dangerous things. Nearly as dangerous as elections themselves for the mental well-being of those involved. The biggest danger follows election results that few predicted – where immediate post-mortems suddenly involve people seeing with total clarity why the unexpected was always on the cards. So let’s start with some humility about what we … Continued READ MORE
Labour market A big day in court for the gig economy – but just one of many until Parliament decides. We need new technologies but old certainties too. 28 October 2016 by Torsten Bell Who exactly is self-employed? When is a worker not an employee? And how can you be an employee under employment law but not for tax law? These are difficult questions, reflecting the fact that the world of work is a complicated beast even before you start to think about how employment law, tax rules and … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions· Economic growth First impressions matter for England’s first generation of Metro Mayors 20 October 2016 by Torsten Bell First impressions matter – not just in job interviews or blind dates, but for England’s first generation of Metro Mayors too. Resting on the shoulders of the half dozen elected mayors next May in the likes of Greater Manchester, the West Midlands and Sheffield city region is not only their own careers, but the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Housing· Welfare The 14p stealth tax rise that is hammering ‘just managing families’ 30 September 2016 by Torsten Bell Judging new governments is hard. Without decisions taken, let alone results delivered, we are left to judge the early months of an administration by the purpose that motivates it. On this measure how does the first three months of Theresa May’s government measure up? First and foremost of course this government is about delivering Brexit. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Economic growth Elephants, globalisation, and why we shouldn’t let domestic policy makers off the hook on living standards 13 September 2016 by Torsten Bell From political rallies to university seminars, it is becoming fashionable to say that globalisation has led to stagnant living standards for working and middle classes of the developed world, leaving national governments powerless to deliver rising incomes and explaining rising political dissatisfaction with the status quo. But these are dangerous words in such simple form, … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Social mobility· Economy and public finances Prime Minister’s ambition to help the 2.1 million “just managing” families means tearing down the “here and now” barriers to social mobility 9 September 2016 by Torsten Bell It’s understandable and right that all politicians want to focus on social mobility. Having “a fair chance to go as far as their talent and their hard work will allow”, as the Prime Minister said today, is what everyone wants for themselves and their children. And as a society the last thing we can afford … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Bank will bring out its sledgehammer this week – but it needs to explain which nut it’s trying to crack 2 August 2016 by Torsten Bell On Thursday the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is going to act for the first time since July 2012. Expect general excitement as one part of the British state gets round to doing something big in the wake of the Brexit vote. But this excitement should be matched by realism about what the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Repairing the painful fractures between generations will be a crucial task for the new Prime Minister 3 July 2016 by David Willetts and Torsten Bell There’s a lot to do, and no-one around to do it. That’s the conclusion from Britain’s first week as a country on a course for Brexit. Most debate, and financial market turmoil, is focused on the huge task of redefining Britain’s role in the world. Whether we like it or not, and whether our leaders … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Brexit & trade· Inequality & poverty The referendum, living standards and inequality 24 June 2016 by Torsten Bell Today’s result is what earthquakes in politics look like. It will have big long term impacts on the future living standards of the British people – impacts on employment, pay and prices that will matter much more to people than today’s falls in the value of Sterling or the stock market, bad though those are. … Continued READ MORE
