Incomes· Living standards· Housing· Welfare The 14p stealth tax rise that is hammering ‘just managing families’ 30 September 2016 by Torsten Bell Judging new governments is hard. Without decisions taken, let alone results delivered, we are left to judge the early months of an administration by the purpose that motivates it. On this measure how does the first three months of Theresa May’s government measure up? First and foremost of course this government is about delivering Brexit. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Economic growth Elephants, globalisation, and why we shouldn’t let domestic policy makers off the hook on living standards 13 September 2016 by Torsten Bell From political rallies to university seminars, it is becoming fashionable to say that globalisation has led to stagnant living standards for working and middle classes of the developed world, leaving national governments powerless to deliver rising incomes and explaining rising political dissatisfaction with the status quo. But these are dangerous words in such simple form, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Social mobility· Economy and public finances Prime Minister’s ambition to help the 2.1 million “just managing” families means tearing down the “here and now” barriers to social mobility 9 September 2016 by Torsten Bell It’s understandable and right that all politicians want to focus on social mobility. Having “a fair chance to go as far as their talent and their hard work will allow”, as the Prime Minister said today, is what everyone wants for themselves and their children. And as a society the last thing we can afford … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Bank will bring out its sledgehammer this week – but it needs to explain which nut it’s trying to crack 2 August 2016 by Torsten Bell On Thursday the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is going to act for the first time since July 2012. Expect general excitement as one part of the British state gets round to doing something big in the wake of the Brexit vote. But this excitement should be matched by realism about what the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Repairing the painful fractures between generations will be a crucial task for the new Prime Minister 3 July 2016 by David Willetts and Torsten Bell There’s a lot to do, and no-one around to do it. That’s the conclusion from Britain’s first week as a country on a course for Brexit. Most debate, and financial market turmoil, is focused on the huge task of redefining Britain’s role in the world. Whether we like it or not, and whether our leaders … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Brexit & trade The referendum, living standards and inequality 24 June 2016 by Torsten Bell Today’s result is what earthquakes in politics look like. It will have big long term impacts on the future living standards of the British people – impacts on employment, pay and prices that will matter much more to people than today’s falls in the value of Sterling or the stock market, bad though those are. … Continued READ MORE
Tax A history of taxing the rich – what might the future hold? 18 April 2016 by Torsten Bell Thanks to Panama and its papers, the rich and the tax they do (or don’t) pay is back at the top of the news agenda. Even before details of thousands of off-shore accounts/companies/investments emerged, the issue of what tax the rich should pay had recently returned to the centre of political debate for the first … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Housing· Political parties and elections One Nation or two? 21 March 2016 by Torsten Bell Iain Duncan Smith says the government’s claim to be a One Nation government is at risk and that it is “in danger of drifting in a direction that divides society rather than unites it”. Government spokespeople, including the Climate Change Secretary, Amber Rudd, have been clear they think he is wrong – indeed the Prime … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Is the Chancellor planning a £32bn pre-election take-away? I wouldn’t bet on it 17 March 2016 by Torsten Bell If you’re the kind of person that finds money down the back of your sofa, the chances are you’re the kind of person that also loses it down there in the first place. That’s the lesson the Chancellor was taught by his Budget yesterday. At the centre of all the Commons rhetoric, stats and pun-strewn … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Budget response: the sofa can go from being a cashpoint to a pickpocket overnight 16 March 2016 by Torsten Bell TREASURY CHOOSES TO ACCEPT £38bn EXTRA BORROWING IN FACE OF ECONOMIC HEADWINDS OBR gives the Chancellor a £55bn fiscal black hole, double the £27bn windfall from the Autumn Statement The weaker outlook for productivity and pay has led the OBR to give George Osborne a £55bn fiscal hole, reversing twice over the £27bn fiscal windfall … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Pensions & savings· Tax Nice try, but no cigar: the Chancellor and pension tax relief 5 March 2016 by Torsten Bell We’ve known for some time that George Osborne wants to make radical changes to how the UK’s tax system encourages people to save for their pension. Yet we’ve now learnt that his preferred change is not going to happen. Here’s why he was right to agitate for reform (even if not for the particular change he … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Tax Scottish Labour has a tax policy – let the debate commence 5 February 2016 by Torsten Bell Scottish Labour has a tax policy – specifically a tax raising policy. That’s a big change, whether you support it or not. In the decade and a half since devolution it is the first time the party will go into a Scottish Parliamentary election with proposals to change income tax. The proposal is to raise … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Preparing for the next crisis – it’s best to ask questions now so we can shoot later 28 January 2016 by Torsten Bell In the decade leading up to the financial crisis not one speech by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown mentioned quantitative easing. Between boom, bust, and prudence, unconventional monetary policy did not get a look in. The then Governor of the Bank of England managed one mention, albeit in the context of Japan … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Scotland Completing the jobs recovery is the key to keeping Scotland ahead on pay 20 January 2016 by Torsten Bell Right across Britain the last decade has been tough for family budgets. But for everyone apart from the very richest Scotland has been a relatively good place to be. At least when it comes to pay. In 2004 typical hourly pay in Scotland was 7.7 per cent lower than in England. This was the longstanding … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Pay New year, new challenges for Britain’s cities when it comes to low pay 4 January 2016 by Torsten Bell In three months’ time a decent chunk of working Britain will get a pay rise when the National Living Wage is introduced at the start of April. This higher minimum wage for the over-24s is a good thing given our far too high levels of low pay. It is also one of the biggest changes … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Building on Britain’s living standards recovery next year will require decisive action by policy makers 31 December 2015 by Torsten Bell British policy makers might well have had a contented Christmas break. At least by recent standards. In 2015 employment reached record highs while real earnings growth returned after a six-year absence. Crucially those on the lowest earnings saw the biggest rises at over three per cent. But policy makers from the Treasury to the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Universal Credit’s future depends on whether it’s the economics or the politics that comes first for the Treasury 4 December 2015 by Torsten Bell Incentives matter. That was one of the central assumptions behind the creation of Universal Credit. As well as creating a simpler benefits system (a good thing in and of itself), the purpose of the new benefit is to drive up employment by providing a clearer financial incentive to enter and progress in work. But incentives … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Spending Review’s big choice: will there be five ‘big losers’ or a toning down of the cuts? 20 November 2015 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett The core of next week’s Spending Review is now becoming clear. If the Treasury delivers the pre-announced scale of cuts we will see five ‘big losers’ in Whitehall including, surprisingly for some, Education. The Chancellor is now five days away from announcing his second multi-year spending review. Since 1998 these departmental budget setting exercises have … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Now is not the time to fudge on tax credits 5 November 2015 by Torsten Bell Public policy questions are often difficult, with significant trade-offs between equally important objectives. As a result most people who have spent time taking decision in government know that, despite its bad reputation, the fudge can sometimes be the right answer. It can buy time on issues where the policy substance is unclear or reconcile competing … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Tone down, phase in or transition to: the options facing the Treasury on tax credits 27 October 2015 by Torsten Bell Following developments in the House of Lords, we’ve entered a new phase in the tax credits debate. Whatever the constitutional rights and wrongs, everyone can agree that the ball is firmly back in George Osborne’s court. Indeed last night he promised to look again at the changes. The real question now is to what extent … Continued READ MORE
Tax· Welfare National Insurance cuts: far from being the silver bullet for tax credit changes they miss the target 26 October 2015 by Torsten Bell It was another busy weekend in the debate on the changes to tax credits that are set to be introduced next April. More suggestions about how the Government might ameliorate the impact on low income working families have been set out. In particular there’s been a bit of focus on the role National Insurance changes (specifically on … Continued READ MORE
Tax· Welfare We can’t (tax) cut our way out of the tax credit problem 21 October 2015 by Torsten Bell When it comes to this April’s tax credit cuts we’re now swiftly approaching the point where everyone accepts there is a problem, and starts to ask the real question – what is the solution? Forthcoming work from the Resolution Foundation will look at the issue in detail, but it’s worth sketching out the parameters … Continued READ MORE
Pay When it comes to the ‘National Living Wage’ being introduced to the world, it’s time for some responsible parenting 15 September 2015 by Torsten Bell The Chancellor’s introduction of a higher minimum wage – the ‘National Living Wage’ – is a policy with competitive claims to its parentage. Announced by a Government, advocated by the official opposition, and prefigured by work from a range of experts including the Resolution Foundation. From all these and more it’s now time for some … Continued READ MORE
