This article was initially published on our Substack. The Government has said the economy was on the right track before the Iran war, pointing to surprisingly strong GDP data for Q1 2026. The same can’t be said of the labour market. ONS stats published this morning (19 May 2026) shows a weak labour market in the … Continued

This article was originally published on VoxEU. Around the world, no social buzzword is bigger than “security”. Political scientists use the concept to try and make sense of elections, while practicing politicians promise to offer it in order to win them (Green et al. 2024). Here in the UK our current finance minister has even … Continued

The jobs market ended 2024 with good news on pay. That’s if you have a job – and there was worrying evidence that it’s getting harder to find one. We delve into the detail below. Employment is falling… After two strong years, the jobs market cooled off markedly throughout 2024. Employee jobs fell again in … Continued

Today’s labour market data paint a picture of a labour market that is generating fewer jobs, but paying better for those who do have one. This picture is hazy, however, because the data are themselves increasingly uncertain. The employment rate is falling The 16-64 employment rate in the ONS’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) was unchanged … Continued

Today’s labour market data from the ONS suggest that both labour demand and labour supply are heading South. The only silver lining is that, for those that do have a job, real pay has been rising fast. Labour supply is falling fast Economic inactivity rate has risen to its highest rate since 2015 among those … Continued

Today marks an important milestone for labour market wonks. After being deprived of a full labour market release since early autumn due to data issues around one of the ONS’ core surveys, this morning we got (almost) the full set of labour market data up to the end of 2023. The release sheds light on … Continued

Every month the ONS releases lots of data on the condition of the UK labour market – including information about employment, jobs, pay, and vacancies. But for the first time (that we are aware of), today’s statistics were released without the data that comes from the ONS’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) – the source for … Continued

This morning’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is starting to cool, with the biggest employment fall on record outside of a recession. But this is not yet feeding through into wages, which grew at record high rates. And while wage growth impacts both workers and (indirectly) the wider economy, this month’s pay … Continued

Today’s labour market stats offer a glimmer of good news when it comes to pay: real wages in June were higher than a year ago for the first time in 18 months, offering a welcome respite for workers in Britain. But this welcome news for workers won’t be shared by policy makers at the Bank … Continued

Today’s data paints a picture of a labour market that is loosening somewhat (as in, firms aren’t having to compete quite as fiercely for workers) but with pay growth at levels still far too rapid to hit the Bank of England’s 2 per cent inflation target. Real pay is still falling, so we’ve taken a … Continued

This morning’s labour market data from the ONS had encouraging news in the shape of rising employment, coming from a reversal among the under 50s of the post-pandemic fall in participation. But inactivity among the over 50s and among those with long-term illnesses remains stubbornly high, there continue to be signs that firms’ demand for … Continued

Today’s labour market statistics show employment has been holding up well in the face of the higher interest rates and the cost of living crisis. Meanwhile, there were encouraging early signs that labour market activity is improving and pay growth generating less inflation – a bit of good news for the Chancellor ahead of Wednesday’s … Continued

This morning, the ONS published new figures outlining the number of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET). Overall, 788,000 16-24-year-olds (11.5 per cent) found themselves NEET in the last three months of 2022. And there has been a sharp rise in the number of young people who are NEET in … Continued

This morning’s labour market stats bring good news and bad news. An uptick in workforce participation is good news for everyone, while signs of weakening pay pressure might ease the Bank of England’s inflation concerns. But a wider cooling of demand (seen in falling vacancies, and rising unemployment and redundancies) don’t bode well for workers. … Continued