Growth Good data in hard times Simon Pittaway reflects on the puzzling arrival of good economic news in the midst of a global energy shock. 23 April 2026 by Simon Pittaway This post was originally published on our Substack. The war in Iran and its impact on global energy markets have sent shockwaves through the UK economy. Consumer confidence is down, as fuel prices and interest rates rise. And, while most households’ energy costs are shielded by the Ofgem price cap for now, April is a key month for businesses renewing their energy contracts. … Continued READ MORE
Growth UK productivity grew more in the last year than in the previous seven combined A breakdown of a genuinely surprising number, and what it means for the Bank of England 6 February 2026 by Greg Thwaites Here’s some good news that might have passed you by. UK productivity – how much the economy produces per hour worked – grew more in the past year than in the previous seven years combined. I know. It doesn’t feel like that. GDP per person has barely moved since before the pandemic – up just … Continued READ MORE
Growth The Government’s economic strategy becomes more concrete 29 January 2025 by Greg Thwaites The Chancellor’s speech today provided some more detail on how the Government plans to boost growth. One can begin to discern the outlines of a growth strategy taking shape, and it is increasingly clear what this government wants to be known for: building things. A concrete growth strategy Life is never really this simple, but … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Growth· Net zero What Britain should learn from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act plan Like or loath the ‘protectionist’ Inflation Reduction Act’s green subsidies, America offers an example of strategic thinking 13 March 2023 by Torsten Bell The UK has lost the habit of thinking strategically. Grappling with the constraints imposed by the global and domestic economies — or reality as it is sometimes known — is deeply out of fashion these days. Debates on how the UK might respond to Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and its near $400bn of green … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Growth· Cities and regions Levelling-up: The Blair-Osborne Project 2 February 2022 by Lindsay Judge and Charlie McCurdy There have been many attempts in the past to reduce the gaps between richer and poorer parts of the UK. But despite progress on some measures (most notably employment and pay), geographic disparities remain substantial and stubborn, particularly when it comes to productivity. The gap in typical pay between Kensington and Chelsea and Scarborough has … Continued READ MORE
Growth· Cities and regions Solving the productivity puzzle 15 July 2021 by Lindsay Judge Regional inequalities are a longstanding feature within UK political debate. However, they have gained additional pertinence in the years since the 2008 financial crisis. From the 2016 EU referendum result, through the ‘red wall’ turning blue in the 2019 general election, to the differential impact of Covid-19 across the UK, place increasingly functions as a … Continued READ MORE
Growth Is there any economics behind Johnson’s ‘perk up and carry on’ strategy? 15 August 2019 by Torsten Bell It’s time to get with the perk… I mean programme. Boris Johnson’s government might not even have a Budget under its belt, but its economic strategy is taking shape. It’s time to abolish the gloomsters. And the doomsters. As he said on entering Downing Street, “after three years of unfounded self-doubt it is time to … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Two and a half reasons to be cheerful about our strong and stable labour market 11 June 2019 by Nye Cominetti Today’s labour market statistics were, to use a technical term, boring. In a world of high political and economic drama, our labour market has served up headline measures of real pay growth and employment which basically haven’t changed for four months in a row. We shouldn’t bemoan unchanging numbers. Like air travel and digging tunnels, … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Work· Growth The word on the high street 18 April 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson The way we shop in the UK has changed dramatically in just the space of a decade. In 2008 less than five per cent of retail spending was online, and that share has almost quadrupled in the years since. The latest statistics published just this morning show that in March this year almost a fifth … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Work Relocation, relocation, relocation – why workers in firms are increasingly staying put 13 November 2018 by Stephen Clarke Channel 4 (or at least some of it) is off to Leeds. Some staff may be relishing the move, some may have wanted to move to Manchester or Birmingham, while others may have just wanted to stay put. Despite the mixed feelings one thing is undisputed; Channel 4 staff are now part of an increasingly … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Public finances· Growth Time to concentrate on our capitalism 26 July 2018 by Torsten Bell and Daniel Tomlinson Our politicians are anxious. And not just because no-one has a decent poll lead or idea where Brexit will end up. No, some are finding the time to get anxious about other things too, including the state of capitalism in the UK. The angst isn’t limited to the left either, with Michael Gove becoming a … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Growth· Cities and regions Poor productivity and high housing costs are driving a ‘living standards exodus’ from London 27 June 2018 by Stephen Clarke As a Londoner it’s fair to say that as a city we’re quite good at giving ourselves a pat on the back (though apparently self-loathing Londoners are a thing too). It’s often suggested that London is an economic powerhouse, productive, innovative and leaving the rest of the country in its wake. However new research by … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Growth· Trade Dis-United Kingdom? Inequality, growth and the Brexit divide 25 May 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Much has changed in Britain since the EU referendum, but in many ways the divide that opened up around the vote feels as cavernous today as it was on the morning after the night before. That owes much to the inevitably divisive nature of a binary in/out referendum of course, but many commentators point also … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Introducing….Hamilton – The Industrial Strategy 21 May 2018 by David Willetts Today’s science speech by the Prime Minister shows how much she has in common with the great Alexander Hamilton – though she has not got her own musical yet. Hamilton’s great rival Jefferson had a picture of America as sturdy yeoman farmers enjoying their liberties under a minimalist Government. Hamilton instead saw the Federal Government … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Britain’s labour market – the good (jobs), the bad (pay) and the ugly (productivity) 15 May 2018 by George Bangham This month’s labour market statistics gave us a classic mixed bag of results, with reasons to be cheerful on jobs, confused on pay, and downright depressed when it comes to Britain’s productivity record. Let’s start with the good news on jobs. Employment has hit another new high, with recent growth driven by full-time work – … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Britain passes a major milestone on pay and breaks new ground on jobs – but there’s a productivity sting 17 April 2018 by Stephen Clarke This morning UK labour market passed a few living standards milestones on pay and jobs with two good pieces of news, one expected and one a surprise. We also got a hint of more good news to come. But we also got one bit of bad news. Let’s start with the good. Today pay growth … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth ‘The rise of the robots’ and ‘productivity pessimism’ can’t both be right 14 December 2017 by Adam Corlett Talk of looming automation, AI and robots is pervasive in public policy chat – including in the government’s new industrial strategy. Almost as common are projections that the weak growth of the past decade is here to stay – including in the latest official economic outlook. Sometimes these assumptions are even mentioned in the same … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Britain’s skills record has hindered, not helped, our productivity drive. That needs to change 30 November 2017 by Kathleen Henehan Over the last week, we’ve heard a lot about the need to boost Britain’s productivity and how education and training can support that drive. First we had welcome new funding commitments in the Budget, then a strong skills focus in the Industrial Strategy White Paper and today we have a Skills Summit. Throughout, the Government … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Growth Hammond’s goal in this Budget should be to restart the productivity engine 20 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker As a nation, we’re working smarter than we used to. A decade ago, for every hour we worked, we produced about £31.30 of stuff; today each hour of graft generates £31.85 of output. That sounds like good news. If we’re becoming more productive we should be able to treat ourselves to a pay rise, or … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Growth The living standards cost of the OBR’s newfound productivity pessimism 10 October 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Rumours of attempts within the Cabinet to remove Philip Hammond may or may not be wide of the mark. But given the recent steady flow of disappointing economic data, the Chancellor could be forgiven for wanting to walk before he’s pushed. Last week’s PMI data and today’s short-term indicators from the ONS both suggested that … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Taking stock of our industrial strategy 1 August 2017 by Stephen Clarke Recent electoral surprises, particularly the referendum last summer and last month’s general election, have been described as reactions against the economic status quo. The shocks have been greeted by politician promising no more business as usual. Theresa May has said that her government will create “a country in which prosperity and opportunity are shared right … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Morrisons matters: we need an industrial strategy for pay packets 25 July 2017 by Torsten Bell Like excessively floral play suits, industrial strategy has made a comeback from that strange land we call the 1970s. It’s all the rage. The government has named a department after it. Jeremy Corbyn is so keen to set that strategy free of European rules and regulations, he wants to leave the single market over it. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Growth Whose recovery is this? 11 May 2017 by Stephen Clarke Much has been written about the success of the UK economy recently. Last year the country was (almost) the fastest growing economy in the G7 and confounded expectations that the vote to leave the European Union would cause an economic slowdown if not outright recession. And yet, in many parts of the country this tale … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth· Cities and regions No more robot wars in London 2 May 2017 by Torsten Bell “The robots are coming to take our jobs”, the Evening Standard told Londoners in December 2016. In case that didn’t depress their readers enough, the article went on to spell out the coming doom: “The sheer pace of change in computational power and grinding efficiencies of automation will alter or eliminate many of our jobs, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Growth 2016 was a quiet year for the British economy – but was it the calm before the storm? 15 February 2017 by Stephen Clarke In politics 2016 was a busy year. The vote to leave the European Union; a new Prime Minister; the unexpected election of Donald Trump and Matteo Renzi’s failed constitutional referendum in Italy. However, it was a relatively quiet year for the British economy. ONS statistics released today paint a picture of a labour market calmly … Continued READ MORE
