Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Mobility To understand inequality, we need to understand its intersections too 6 March 2019 by Fahmida Rahman and Matthew Whittaker Inequality has been moving up the political agenda in recent years. Public concern about the issue is at record levels. Politicians across the spectrum – from Theresa May’s emphasis on the ‘burning injustice’ faced by many in modern Britain, to Jeremy Corbyn’s lamentation of the ‘grotesque inequality’ that characterises the UK and other rich countries … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Hitting the books: student loans and the public finances 16 December 2018 by Matthew Whittaker With everything that’s going on in British politics right now, it’s easy to forget that the government was celebrating some seriously good news just seven weeks ago. You might remember that the Chancellor got handed a £74 billion fiscal windfall at the Budget that allowed him to deliver the long-promised extra spending on the NHS … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Tax Is there enough fuel in the fiscal tank for another duty freeze? 3 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker After eight years of freezes, it had started to look like successive governments’ cancellation of the annual RPI-linked uprating of fuel duty had run out of road. After all, it’s already costing the government around £9 billion a year, and that cost will grow with each passing year. But we now know that the Chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Five charts to chill the Chancellor’s blood ahead of the Budget 28 September 2018 by Matthew Whittaker We now know that this year’s Budget will be delivered on 29 October, making it the first Monday Budget since 1962. The traditional Wednesday has been avoided, we’re told, to side-step negative Halloween-based headlines. Yet there’s still plenty of scary stuff for the Chancellor to deal with – from finding the £20 billion needed to … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Growth· Trade Dis-United Kingdom? Inequality, growth and the Brexit divide 25 May 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Much has changed in Britain since the EU referendum, but in many ways the divide that opened up around the vote feels as cavernous today as it was on the morning after the night before. That owes much to the inevitably divisive nature of a binary in/out referendum of course, but many commentators point also … Continued READ MORE
Wealth· Tax· Generations There’s something off-key about our approach to inheritance tax 2 May 2018 by Matthew Whittaker It takes something to be crowned Britain’s most hated tax – a bit like being the UK’s worst ever Eurovision entry – but that is the unwanted title held by inheritance tax. It doesn’t help that it’s a tax that’s unavoidably associated with the death of loved ones. And complexity is undoubtedly a problem too. … Continued READ MORE
Social security· Savings & debt· Wealth· Generations Now’s not the time for auto-pilot 6 April 2018 by Matthew Whittaker and Stephen Clarke Straightforward policy successes are a rare achievement in government and need celebrating when they arrive, lest we forget that policy matters. The recent sizeable gains the UK has made on private pension saving as a result of the introduction of auto-enrolment are therefore a clear cause for cheer. But challenges remain, starting with the increase … Continued READ MORE
Housing Time for some housing honesty 2 January 2018 by Matthew Whittaker The return to work after Christmas is never easy. Unless you’re an estate agent: they love January. Following the pre-Christmas lull, families rush back into wanting to buy and sell their houses (helped in part by the traditional post-festivity spike in family breakdown). But for an increasing number of us, house hunting is becoming little … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Growth Hammond’s goal in this Budget should be to restart the productivity engine 20 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker As a nation, we’re working smarter than we used to. A decade ago, for every hour we worked, we produced about £31.30 of stuff; today each hour of graft generates £31.85 of output. That sounds like good news. If we’re becoming more productive we should be able to treat ourselves to a pay rise, or … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt The Bank has increased borrowing costs, but is personal debt bubbling over? 5 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Following a period of double digit growth in consumer credit over the last year or so, there have been some concerns about the reappearance of a debt bubble in the UK economy. In truth though, household borrowing currently resembles less of a bubble and more of two day-old helium balloon: partially deflated and looking worse … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Crunching the numbers on today’s rate rise 2 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Interest rates are up. It may be a very modest increase but, for any number of reasons, the news is big. Ten years on from the last rise, today’s 0.25 percentage point increase in the Bank’s base rate (taking it back to the 0.5 per cent it sat at between March 2009 and August 2016) … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Growth The living standards cost of the OBR’s newfound productivity pessimism 10 October 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Rumours of attempts within the Cabinet to remove Philip Hammond may or may not be wide of the mark. But given the recent steady flow of disappointing economic data, the Chancellor could be forgiven for wanting to walk before he’s pushed. Last week’s PMI data and today’s short-term indicators from the ONS both suggested that … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Trade We’re getting poorer, but it’s not (just) Brexit 6 October 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Amid a busy week in politics, the publication this week of new data showing that average household income per person has fallen in each of the last four quarters has passed somewhat unremarked upon. As the chart below shows, annualised income fell by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of this year relative to … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty· Social security The living standards issue that’s bigger than Brexit for lower income households 9 September 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Love it or loathe it, the long shadow of Brexit is set to dominate our political weather for some considerable time to come. With good reason of course. The long-term impact remains uncertain, but we can be sure it will be significant. And in the near-term, there’s no denying that the referendum result is at … Continued READ MORE
Incomes Incomes are falling, placing our economic growth on borrowed time 30 June 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Politics may be dominating the news agenda at the moment, but there’s a lot going on in the economy too. For those who care about living standards – and given the centrality of the issue to both the Brexit vote and the general election, that should include politicians – this week has been a … Continued READ MORE
Work The gloomy outlook for pay will put austerity under further pressure 15 June 2017 by Matthew Whittaker In the five decades leading up the financial crisis in 2008, growth in real weekly earnings turned negative in just 51 months. Yet new figures mark the 72nd month of negative growth in the nine years since, with more on the cards throughout 2017. Today’s figures leave average pay – in annualised terms – more … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Trade· Political parties and elections How important was Brexit in the so-called ‘Brexit election’? 10 June 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Anyone who channel-hopped their way through Thursday night’s election coverage will have noticed two things. First, pundits are very good at recycling and refining their reactions as they work their way around the various studios. And second, different channels established different, but seemingly equally plausible, narratives about just what on earth was happening. But one … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions When it comes to living standards, geography matters 24 May 2017 by Matthew Whittaker A slowdown in economic growth and the recent return of the pay squeeze has focused attention once again on the extent to which absolute living standard improvements have stalled across UK households since the financial crisis of 2008. But the distribution of gains and losses matters too – especially in the context of a vote … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth Time for a re-rewind on debt? 28 March 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Just like Craig David, debt made something of a comeback in 2016. Having peaked at 160 per cent on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, household debt as a share of income fell to 140 per cent by the end of 2015. Successive increases in the first three quarters of 2016 took the ratio … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption 2016 was a good year for living standards – but families didn’t splash out 16 February 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Today’s annual Family Spending release contains the usual wealth of useful information on household spending patterns. It shows that overall spending was largely unchanged in 2015-16 (at £529 a week) relative to the previous year, once inflation is accounted for. Indeed, having fallen slightly from 2006 and then increased gently after 2012, average household spending is little … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption· Savings & debt Consumer borrowing is up. But will it last, and should we be concerned? 12 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing is increasing at its fastest rate in 11 years. As the chart below shows, outstanding debts (excluding mortgages and student loans) rose by 10.8 per cent in November 2016 – faster than any time since October 2005. This surge has inevitably prompted concerns that the UK is heading back down the path of … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty Inequality has reached a 30-year low. So should we still care? 10 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker The joke goes that in the pub quizzes of the future, the answer to every question that starts “in what year…” will be 2016. But it’s likely that few will correctly identify that 2016 was also the year in which household income inequality fell to its lowest post-Thatcher level. Yet, thanks to a combination of … Continued READ MORE
Housing Resolving to fill the housing ‘aspiration gap’ 3 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker New Year look-aheads are always a risky endeavour, and the level of uncertainty facing the UK economy at the start of 2017 means that the danger of looking foolish is even more elevated this time around. But we can be sure of one thing at least: our obsession with housing will show no sign of … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Incomes· Public finances Theresa May needs to spread the jam more thickly 25 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Since taking office in July, Theresa May has made it clear that she wants to put the ‘just about managing’ – those working families struggling to get by – at the heart of her government’s agenda. Yet Wednesday’s Autumn Statement, which provided the first opportunity for setting out a package of support, proved less jam-packed … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Resolution Foundation reaction to Autumn Statement 2016 23 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker £59bn impact of Brexit and Chancellor’s decision to increase investment spending drive £122bn extra borrowing Philip Hammond chooses not to support just about managing families who face a double whammy of lower earnings and benefit cuts Slower growth and higher inflation will mean higher borrowing and a parliament of falling living standards for millions – … Continued READ MORE
