Labour market· Pay Election 2019: What jobs do UK workers actually do? 12 November 2019 by Laura Gardiner The UK is gearing up for another election, which means politicians of all parties fighting for the votes of what they call ‘ordinary’ or ‘hard-working’ people. There are record numbers of people in work in the UK. So, what jobs do we do in Britain, how have they changed in recent years, and what might … Continued READ MORE
The economic backdrop to General Election 2019 Top of the Charts 8 November 2019 Afternoon all, One operation and a whole world of painkillers later… I may not be making it out of the house but TOTCs can make it to your inbox. As this is the week the election campaign officially kicks off we thought we’d focus on the economic context that it’s taking place within. People used … Continued READ MORE
The unintended consequences of policies and pollution Top of the Charts 1 November 2019 Afternoon all, The election is off. In the horse-racing sense. And Corbs has definitely had the better first week. Donald Trump AND Mike Ashley slagging you off is what winning looks like in the “having the right enemies” school of politics. More worrying for Conservative MPs should be the fact that the campaign has knocked … Continued READ MORE
Sinner or saint? The flaws of the UK labour market won’t solve themselves 29 October 2019 by Gavin Kelly The UK labour market is lauded for reaching record levels of employment at the same time as it is lacerated for the insecurities that are said to be its central feature. Two things can, however, be true at once: an economy can be job-rich at the same time as too many of its workers are … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Has the labour market reached a turning point? 15 October 2019 by Nye Cominetti On headline measures the labour market remains healthy. Conditions are tight and this continues to feed into decent real pay growth – 2.0 per cent in the three months to August 2019, not far off the levels we came to expect before the recession. But alongside positive headlines are signs that the labour market is … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Pay A rare political consensus has broken out over a higher minimum wage – but achieving it is far from straightforward 1 October 2019 by Torsten Bell The politics of the minimum wage don’t exactly fit our lazy stereotypes. Back in the pre-crisis days of supposed consensus, debates raged about whether the policy was right or wrong. Today, when political divides are huge, everyone is falling over themselves to agree that a higher minimum wage is the way to go. The Chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy The Treasury and Bank of England should prepare for a three-pronged economic shock from ‘no deal’ 1 October 2019 by Jack Leslie It’s a well-worn trope that no one knows what the economic impact of a no deal Brexit would be. And for good reason. The scale of disruption at the border, in supply chains and in the wider economy, is impossible to predict with any accuracy. Much would depend on the timing and the success of … Continued READ MORE
Political parties and elections Healing the Nation vs Divide and Conquer Top of the Charts 27 September 2019 Afternoon all, It’s not been a good week for anyone that cares about constitutional – or indeed personal – niceties. It’s both horrendous to watch and painfully inevitable when politics has become about (unachievable) total victory. Once we’re shrugging shoulders at collateral damage (to the economy or political decency) we’re in big trouble. And in … Continued READ MORE
Political parties and elections Examining the Labour Party’s economic radicalism Top of the Charts 20 September 2019 Afternoon all, I’m packing my bucket and spade for some seaside fun at Labour Party conference this weekend in Brighton. Obviously, the conference will be overshadowed by a massive row about Brexit (again). But we like to do things differently at RF so we’ll be hosting a massive row civilised discussion about its economic policy … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Is the UK recession ready? 9 September 2019 by Torsten Bell The good news is we’ve now managed a recession free decade since the financial crisis. The bad news is that history teaches us this is quite unusual – booms and bust haven’t been abolished. This matters – downturns have very high costs, even when they’re not of the global financial crisis earth-shattering sort. On average … Continued READ MORE
Battling inequality, one tattoo and traffic jam at a time Top of the Charts 6 September 2019 Afternoon all, I’m slightly lost for words after the vote-losing, whip-stripping, police-fainting, brother-resigning week we’ve had. But beneath all the madness has anyone else noticed a strange pattern emerging from British politics? In the olden days one lot wanted X (eg tax cuts) and the other lot wanted Y (eg tax rises). They had a … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Brexit & trade· Tax After Brexit the UK could cut VAT on energy – but should it? 2 September 2019 by Adam Corlett During the EU referendum, one of Vote Leave’s promises was that “fuel bills will be lower for everyone”. Specifically, Boris Johnson and others argued that: “In 1993, VAT on household energy bills was imposed. This makes gas and electricity much more expensive. EU rules mean we cannot take VAT off those bills. The least wealthy … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills What do the latest apprenticeship figures tell us? 2 September 2019 by Kathleen Henehan and Jubair Ahmed This August, as always, brought a host of headlines on academic results: from A level triumphs to parents’ confusion with the new(ish) GCSE marking system. Rather less attention, as always, was paid to students who pursued qualifications and pathways outside the traditional GCSE-to-A level-to-university route. For instance, apprenticeships, where young people can – in theory … Continued READ MORE
Flush Geordies and flustered bankers Top of the Charts 27 August 2019 Afternoon all, All quiet on the Westminster front. Or at least it will go quiet in the very near future – hence the current outrage being very loud as the week comes to a close. Which is a shame because the week started so well with (part of) the country pulling off a million to … Continued READ MORE
Tackling discrimination, crisis explanation – and bringing Britain together (with euthanasia) Top of the Charts 23 August 2019 Afternoon all, Having been a little snarky last week about the progress on Brexit answers, we thought it was only right that TOTCs goes all solution-focused this week. We can’t stretch to a clever wheeze about how to leave the customs union yet keep an open border on the island of Ireland I’m afraid, but read … Continued READ MORE
Pay How to get a pay rise 19 August 2019 by Nye Cominetti How do you get a pay rise? You could try to wrangle more out of your employer with canny negotiating tactics. That may help. But it’s not how the majority of us see our pay rise – and occasionally fall – over time. In practice, other factors are likely to be more important. Some of … Continued READ MORE
Loaded Americans, smart Russians and dying Brits Top of the Charts 16 August 2019 Afternoon all, We’re back. I know this will be a big relief to you all – it’s equally good news for my bank balance. Turns out it’s not a good idea to combine the family preference for too many croissants with our national preference for devaluing the pound. Obviously the real lesson here is to … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth Is there any economics behind Johnson’s ‘perk up and carry on’ strategy? 15 August 2019 by Torsten Bell It’s time to get with the perk… I mean programme. Boris Johnson’s government might not even have a Budget under its belt, but its economic strategy is taking shape. It’s time to abolish the gloomsters. And the doomsters. As he said on entering Downing Street, “after three years of unfounded self-doubt it is time to … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay Is the minimum wage pushing people into self-employment? 29 July 2019 by Nye Cominetti Two big changes in the labour market over the past two decades have been the rise in self-employment and the introduction and uprating of the minimum wage. Is there a connection between these trends? Legally, of course, there is no connection – the minimum wage applies to employees only. But economically, we would expect one. … Continued READ MORE
Weekend reading for the new Cabinet Top of the Charts 26 July 2019 Sign up for our weekly Top of the Charts email here Afternoon all, It’s been a brutal week in Britain – whether you’re trying to commute in near 40 degree heat, or trying to keep your job at the Cabinet table. But I’ve got zero sympathy for the whinging – you want to try spending … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Another summer blockbuster (on fiscal risks) from the OBR 18 July 2019 by Richard Hughes Today the OBR published its second Fiscal Risks Report, a comprehensive assessment of all the things that could go wrong with the UK’s public finances over the next 50 years. And it is a summer blockbuster – topping out at 293 pages in total. Fiscal risk analysis is the new cutting edge in fiscal policymaking, … Continued READ MORE
Navigating the messy world of modern politics Top of the Charts 12 July 2019 Afternoon all, This week the plucky Kiwis beat a nation, India, with a population 280 TIMES AS LARGE in a classic David overcomes Goliath match to reach Sunday’s Cricket World Cup final. But obviously we’ve had quite enough of the little guy standing up to the real power – partly because England are clear favourites … Continued READ MORE
Rock star Eurocrats, takeover attacks and tax spats Top of the Charts 5 July 2019 Afternoon all, Christine Lagarde is a very talented woman, but she’s also a very lucky one. Her current role running the IMF came up rather err…unexpectedly and she now gets to head to Frankfurt to take over as the new head of the European Central Bank, despite saying many times that she had no interest in … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Intergenerational Centre It’s getting better all the time? 5 July 2019 by Stephen Clarke In 1957 the Prime Minister Harold Macmillan told the country that it had “never had it so good”. Since then more than six decades have elapsed, and each successive generation has debated whether this applies to them. Such debates continue to rage. Some commentators have argued that today’s young people are more fortunate than previous … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Childcare· Scotland· Welfare A welcome boost for ‘just about managing’ families in Scotland 27 June 2019 by Adam Corlett Yesterday started with a bleak assessment by the Child Poverty Action Group of the impact of ongoing welfare cuts – specifically how the two-child limit on support, which began to be implemented in 2017, is set to push 300,000 children into poverty. But there was better news for Scottish parents later in the day, as … Continued READ MORE
