Brexit & trade· Economic growth Trump Tariff turmoil The impact of higher US tariffs and the risk of a global recession 14 April 2025 by James Smith and Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites President Trump’s tariff announcements have taken a wrecking ball to the global system of international trade, pushing US tariff rates back to early 20th century levels. Following the suspension of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, the UK’s exposure to automotive and possible “major” pharmaceutical tariffs, means we are set to be affected by more than many other countries, … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade EU-turn Resetting the UK-EU relationship through strategic dynamic alignment 9 October 2024 by Sophie Hale The Government has pledged to reset its relationship with the EU, promising growth dividends from stronger ties, regulatory cooperation and enhanced trade opportunities for UK firms. Despite this EU-friendly rhetoric, Labour’s “red lines” remain firm, limiting its ability to deliver economic growth by delivering substantially different trading arrangements. But by focusing on practical adjustments without … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Brexit & trade· Economic growth Life in the slow lane Assessing the UK’s economic and trade performance since 2010 9 June 2024 by Emily Fry and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites This briefing note is the third output in a programme of outputs designed to put the upcoming UK general election in context, supported by the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at the performance of the UK economy and trade since 2010. The UK grew faster than other G7 economies in the first quarter of 2024 but, … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Decent exposure An overview of how Britain’s exposure to trade has changed 19 February 2024 by Sophie Hale In this briefing note we assess how the exposure to international trade has changed over the past two decades. First, we consider the role that declining manufacturing employment has played on how exposed workers at different pay levels have become. Second, we explore how we have become more reliant on international trade through our everyday … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Local roots of trade routes The UK’s regional services trade over time 23 January 2024 by Emily Fry and Will Barlow Services trade is increasingly important for the UK Politicians are often laser-focussed on goods trade, but trade in services is increasingly important for the UK’s growth story. Globally, services trade growth is expected to continue to outpace goods trade growth – with the share of services predicted to rise from 25 per cent of trade … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Brexit & trade Trading Up The role of the post-Brexit trade approach in the UK’s economic strategy 15 June 2023 by Shania Bhalotia and Swati Dhingra and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale After nearly half a century of EU membership, Britain needs a trade strategy. The stakes are high: such a strategy shapes what families and firms buy from abroad, and what gets produced domestically; influences our jobs, productivity levels and, ultimately, living standards; and contributes a major plank of Britain’s international policy at a time of … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Brexit & trade Open for business? UK trade performance since leaving the EU 28 February 2023 by Sophie Hale and Emily Fry The overwhelming consensus was that Brexit – which raised trade barriers with the EU – would make the UK less open, less competitive and reduce the size of the economy. The fact that the UK is the only G7 country yet to regain its pandemic level of GDP seemed to corroborate these gloomy predictions. But … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Brexit & trade· Cities and regions The Big Brexit An assessment of the scale of change to come from Brexit 22 June 2022 by Swati Dhingra and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Ningyuan Jia Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK’s relationship with the rest of the world in nearly half a century. It is a profound change in economic governance, that will reorient production away from trade with the EU and towards the domestic market, impacting people, places and firms across the UK. Understanding the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Covid-19· Labour market· Brexit & trade· Migration Home and away The UK labour market in a post-Brexit world 16 December 2020 by Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge This briefing note considers a number of ways in which the labour market could be affected as the UK moves to a tighter, post-Brexit immigration regime in January 2021. Under the new rules, legal avenues for low-skilled migrant workers to enter the UK will be more restrictively drawn, with implications for firms, resident foreign-born workers … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances Counting the cost: UK living standards since the 2016 referendum 11 February 2019 by James Smith Household incomes are around £1,500 year lower today than they were expected to be before the Brexit referendum – with the UK having experienced the sharpest income growth slowdown of any economy for which the OECD publish data. This note focuses on the UK’s recent economic performance, going beyond the usual focus on GDP to look at the impact on household living standards across the UK. READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Changing Lanes: The impact of different post-Brexit trading policies on the cost of living 17 October 2017 by Stephen Clarke and Ilona Serwicka and L. Alan Winters The issue of trade has returned to the frontline of British policy making and politics for the first time in 40 years, but little has been said about what the impact of changes in the UK’s trade regime could be on living standards. This paper aims to fill that gap by looking at what impact two “no deal” Brexit scenarios could have on prices and living standards. READ MORE
Labour market· Brexit & trade· Skills· Migration Work in Brexit Britain: reshaping the nation’s labour market 7 July 2017 Almost a year after voting to leave the European Union the negotiations for the UK’s departure began on 19th June 2017. Those negotiations and the exact nature of the agreements they lead to will dominate British politics and policy making for the years ahead, but making a success of Brexit Britain is about far more … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economic growth· Political parties and elections The Importance of Place: explaining the characteristics underpinning the Brexit vote across different parts of the UK 15 July 2016 by Stephen Clarke and Matthew Whittaker Post-referendum analysis has highlighted the importance of demographic, economic and cultural factors on individuals’ vote. In this note, we consider the importance of place; highlighting the extent to which those same factors matter across 378 of Britain’s 380 local authorities. We test the strength of the relationship between these different factors and the vote while holding … Continued READ MORE
