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Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context

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In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term.

Local roots of trade routes

The UK’s regional services trade over time

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Services trade is increasingly important for the UK Politicians are often laser-focussed on goods trade, but trade in services is increasingly important for the UK’s growth story. Globally, services trade growth is expected to continue to outpace goods trade growth – with the share of services predicted to rise from 25 per cent of trade … Continued

Gotta get through this

Energy bills this winter

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Britain’s energy bill crisis is not over: Ofgem’s imminent confirmation of the Q4 2023 price cap is expected to show that annualised typical energy bills will be above £1,900 from October, close to double those before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and only a little below the effective level of £2,100 from last winter that resulted … Continued

Trading Up

The role of the post-Brexit trade approach in the UK’s economic strategy

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After nearly half a century of EU membership, Britain needs a trade strategy. The stakes are high: such a strategy shapes what families and firms buy from abroad, and what gets produced domestically; influences our jobs, productivity levels and, ultimately, living standards; and contributes a major plank of Britain’s international policy at a time of … Continued

We’re going on a growth Hunt

Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context

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This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment.

New Budget, same problems

Spring Budget preview

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In our Spring Budget preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget on March 15th, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor in three key areas: cost-of-living support, public sector pay and boosting growth. We find that there is finally some good news for the Chancellor in the short … Continued

Open for business?

UK trade performance since leaving the EU

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The overwhelming consensus was that Brexit – which raised trade barriers with the EU – would make the UK less open, less competitive and reduce the size of the economy. The fact that the UK is the only G7 country yet to regain its pandemic level of GDP seemed to corroborate these gloomy predictions. But … Continued

The only way is down

Assessing the impact of falls in wholesale energy prices on household and public finances

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Huge rises in energy prices through much of 2022 sparked a cost of living crisis with recession-level hits to family (as inflation soared) and public finances (as the state partially protected us from bill rises). But there has finally been some good news with wholesale gas prices for 2023-24 down more than 70 per cent … Continued

Help today, squeeze tomorrow

Putting the 2022 Autumn Statement in context

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This report presents Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the 2022 Autumn Statement. In the face of grim economic and fiscal forecasts, Jeremy Hunt announced energy support today but tougher times tomorrow, with stealth tax rises for the middle and top of the income distribution followed by spending cuts after the next election.

What next?

The impact of Trussonomics, tax cuts and market turmoil

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The last few days have seen a radical reshaping of the Government’s economic policy and a radical reaction from financial markets. Out have gone both Treasury orthodoxy and the legacy of the Johnson premiership, and in are lower taxes, higher borrowing – and higher borrowing costs as spooked markets respond. Will this new strategy boost … Continued

Cover for mini budget analysis, Blowing the Budget

Blowing the budget

Assessing the implications of the September 2022 fiscal statement

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The Chancellor decided to blow the budget in his first fiscal statement, bringing forward a £45 billion package of tax cuts, the biggest for 50 years. In this briefing note, we show that today’s Government is no longer fiscally conservative nor courting the Red Wall. Instead, debt is on course to rise in each and every year of the forecast period, and the focus has shifted to the South of England, where the beneficiaries of these tax cuts are more likely to be living.

A chilling crisis

Policy options to deal with soaring energy prices

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This briefing note, released just ahead of the announcement of the winter 2022 energy price cap level, looks at the implications of an unprecedented jump in energy costs on low-to-middle income households, stresses the need for urgent and novel policy thinking to lessen this blow, and outlines how this could take shape.

The Big Brexit

An assessment of the scale of change to come from Brexit

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Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK’s relationship with the rest of the world in nearly half a century. It is a profound change in economic governance, that will reorient production away from trade with the EU and towards the domestic market, impacting people, places and firms across the UK. Understanding the … Continued

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