Incomes· Generations They’re coming home How do the living standards of younger Millennials and Gen Z fare? 25 June 2026 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy and Parth Pandya and Jamie Titus-Glover and Lalitha Try Given Britain’s resurgent ‘NEET’ problem, a rise of living with parents, and intensified political debate on the prospects of young people, this briefing note provides an assessment of the living standards of younger millennials and Gen Z and what policymakers should do to raise them. READ MORE
Incomes· Social security· Tax Happy new tax year 2026 Putting tax and social security changes in the context of rising energy bills 2 April 2026 by Lalitha Try The start of April marks the beginning of the new tax year, meaning households will face a wide range of tax, benefit and utility bill changes. Benefit changes in April will boost incomes for the poorest families, particularly the removal of the two-child limit, which will give back £4,560 this year to the affected families. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations· Demographics Bye bye baby Assessing Britain’s falling birth rate since the early 2010s 1 April 2026 by Charlie McCurdy This briefing explores Britain’s recent baby bust and whether it should be a cause for concern for policymakers. Most developed countries are grappling with a falling birth rate, and the UK is no different. There have always been a range of reasons that people postpone having children or choose not to have them at all … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Work· Mobility The long shadow How childhood disadvantage depresses the earnings of university graduates in England 24 March 2026 by Julia Diniz and Richmond Egyei and Anna Stansbury and Greg Thwaites Childhood poverty casts a long shadow over graduates’ earnings. This briefing note shows that even after achieving the same grade from the same university and working for the same employer a decade later, those who were in deep poverty still earn substantially less than those who were not. READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption Power struggle Assessing the options for supporting families with the rise in the cost of energy 18 March 2026 by Alex Clegg and Ruth Curtice and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith and Lalitha Try Conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices from around $70 to $100 per barrel, with wholesale gas prices also rising by over 60 per cent. The duration and severity of the ongoing war are uncertain, but the longer it continues the more likely it is that both petrol prices and energy bills rise, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption· Net zero Power cut What the Government’s energy bill discount means for households, and what comes next 21 February 2026 by Jonathan Marshall Next week, Ofgem is expected to announce that the Q2 2026 energy price cap will be nearly £120 below current levels. This reduction is overwhelmingly driven by the Government’s energy bill discount, which will deploy approximately £6.9 billion of public spending over the next three years to lower one of British families’ biggest expenses. The … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Work· Housing· Social security· Unsung Britain Unsung Britain A portrait of the country's poorer half 10 February 2026 by Resolution Foundation The 13 million working-age families across the poorer half of the country are widely courted by politicians. No party can win elections without their votes, and the country cannot succeed without their needs being met. They are working harder and caring more, yet remain poorly understood and badly served, which is why we have dubbed them ‘Unsung Britain’. In this book we … Continued READ MORE
Incomes Living Standards Outlook 2026 10 February 2026 by Alex Clegg and Louise Murphy and James Smith We present a living standards outlook for non-pensioner families, highlighting strong income growth over 2026-27, driven by benefit changes, but a weak longer-term outlook. It argues that a coherent strategy for improving living standards must include action on productivity, social security and the cost of living. READ MORE
Incomes· Net zero Hot take What to make of the Government’s Warm Homes Plan 22 January 2026 by Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall January 2026 saw the eventual release of the Warm Homes Plan. However, the Plan will not benefit all households in need. This Spotlight reveals that a reliance on financial transactions (government-backed loans) risks favouring better-off families. And while regulation is being used to deliver significant change in the private- and socially-rented sectors, Ministers have shied away from stronger action that could accelerate wider progress, such as tougher rules that would enable the cost of key technologies like heat pumps to fall quicker. READ MORE
Firms· Incomes· Public finances New Year Outlook 2026 Early and encouraging signs of a mild zombie apocalypse 5 January 2026 by Ruth Curtice and Greg Thwaites What a difference a year doesn’t make. This time last year the Government had just announced huge tax rises, having previously said they weren’t coming; trade wonks were wondering what Donald Trump’s next tariff policy would be; and Labour politicians awaited the May elections with trepidation. Yet this sense of déjà vu is only part of the story. Beneath the surface, several things have changed in ways that will matter for the years ahead: the political system has fragmented; new technologies are starting to affect how work is done; and the UK is edging towards a demographic milestone not seen in modern times. This New Year Outlook looks back at some of the less-remarked developments of 2025, and forward to what they mean for the economy in 2026 and beyond. READ MORE
Incomes· Health and disability· Scotland· Social security Delivering dignity? Early lessons from the introduction of Adult Disability Payment in Scotland 8 December 2025 by Lindsay Judge and Louise Murphy When the Scottish Government introduced the Adult Disability Payment (ADP) in 2022 to replace Personal Independence Payment (PIP), it set out to do things differently. [i] Although the two benefits have the same eligibility criteria and are paid at the same rates, Social Security Scotland made it clear that their aim was to treat claimants … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Social security Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026 22 October 2025 by Lalitha Try September’s inflation data shows that the annual rate of CPI inflation was 3.8 per cent, the same rate it was in August 2025, but more than twice its September 2024 level. This grim news of inflation remaining high came with something of a silver lining as September inflation is usually used to uprate most benefits … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Health and disability False starts What the UK’s growing NEETs problem really looks like, and how to fix it 21 October 2025 by Julia Diniz and Louise Murphy Nearly one million young people are now NEET (not in education, employment or training). Tackling this crisis requires stronger enforcement of participation requirements for 16-17-year-olds and an expanded Youth Guarantee offering all 18-24-year-olds real pathways into work or study. READ MORE
Incomes The Resolution Foundation at 20 Two decades of analysis, policy and change 18 September 2025 by Ruth Curtice and Resolution Foundation In this anniversary review, we look back at how living standards have evolved since the Foundation was set up, indulge in a little nostalgia regarding the first two decades of our own institutional life, and – more importantly – consider what the opportunities and challenges facing the UK mean for our future work. READ MORE
Incomes· Health and disability· Work Opening doors How to incentivise employers to create more opportunities for disabled workers 24 July 2025 by Ben Baumberg Geiger and Louise Murphy Improving employment outcomes for disabled people is essential not just for raising living standards, but also for supporting economic growth. To increase the employment of disabled people, the report proposes a new employer-focused strategy built on four principles: reimbursement, reporting, reintegration and recruitment. READ MORE
Incomes· Health and disability· Social security The good, the bad and the messy Responding to the Pathways to Work Green Paper consultation 30 June 2025 by Louise Murphy This week marks an important moment for this Government’s welfare reform plans: as Parliament prepares to vote on major legislation to make cuts to PIP and UC-Health, the consultation on longer-term changes to the benefits system, set out in the Pathways to Work Green Paper, also closes. READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption· Unsung Britain The bare necessities Unpacking the rising cost of essentials for low-to-middle income Britain 30 June 2025 by Simon Pittaway and Lalitha Try This briefing note examines how prices have changed over time in three key areas of spending: energy, food and transport. We also propose policy changes that can make essential costs more affordable for low-to-middle income households, and improve their incomes. READ MORE
Incomes The Living Standards Outlook 2025 26 June 2025 by Adam Corlett This is our seventh annual Living Standards Outlook. It looks at how incomes have fared over the decade so far and what may lie ahead for different groups, given current economic forecasts and the Government’s tax and benefit policies READ MORE
Incomes· Public services· Social security Renew and improve Setting up the Household Support Fund for the future 22 May 2025 by Alex Clegg and Ruth Patrick and Jed Meers and Mike Brewer and Uisce Jordan and Millie Light and Rhiannon Simms and Hayley Bennett and Beth Watts-Cobbe and Joe Pardoe This briefing note, part of the Safety Nets project, assesses how the Household Support Fund could be improved in a longer-term settlement, through analysis of administrative data and interviews with local authorities and recipients of the scheme. READ MORE
Incomes· Health and disability· Social security No workaround Assessing the impact of the Spring 2025 disability and incapacity benefit reforms on employment 20 May 2025 by Louise Murphy and Greg Thwaites In March, the Government released its Pathways to Work Green Paper, setting out a package of welfare reforms that amounted to a net reduction in spending of £4.8 billion in 2029-30. On the Government’s own figures, 3.2 million families will lose out, 250,000 people will fall into poverty, and 700,000 families will fall further below the poverty line. READ MORE
Incomes· Public services· Public finances At your service? Why the 2025 Spending Review must reckon with the distribution of public service use 9 April 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather Post-Covid, the British state is estimated to have reached a historic high of 45 per cent of the size of the economy. Past strategies to cope with increasing pressure on public services such as cutting defence to help fund growing health and welfare spending, and cuts to ‘unprotected’ public services after the financial crisis, have … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Work Minimum wage, maximum pressure? The impact of 2025’s minimum wage and employer NICs increases 30 March 2025 by Nye Cominetti and Greg Thwaites Looking ahead to the future of the minimum wage, we make four recommendations to the Government and the Low Pay Commission (LPC). First, tax policy should go with the grain of minimum wage policy, not against it… READ MORE
Incomes· Budgets & fiscal events· Social security Unsung Britain bears the brunt Putting the 2025 Spring Statement in context 27 March 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This briefing note analyses the choices the Government has made in the context of an awkward backdrop to the 2025 Spring Statement. READ MORE
Incomes· Health and disability· Social security A dangerous road? Examining the ‘Pathways to Work’ Green Paper 19 March 2025 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg and Louise Murphy Yesterday’s Green Paper marks a serious attempt by the Government to tackle two major concerns: the growing spend on disability benefits, and the large number of people who are not working through ill-health. [1] The proposals to tackle the former go much further than reforms suggested by the previous Government; between 800,000 and 1.2 million … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Health and disability· Social security Delivering the undeliverable Five principles to guide policy makers through reforming incapacity and disability benefits 6 March 2025 by Louise Murphy The Government is set to announce a “radical” Green Paper on health-related benefit reform this Spring, and more immediate benefit cuts are expected ahead of the Spring Statement on 26 March. The backdrop is fast-rising spending on working-age health-related benefits: spending is set to rise by £32bn between 2019-20 and 2029-30, from 1.3% to 2.2% … Continued READ MORE
