Low pay· Labour market Low Pay Britain 2025 Where next for the Government’s employment reforms? 3 July 2025 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy This year’s Low Pay Britain report – the 15th in an annual series taking stock of low-paid work in the UK –takes on three important questions as the ERB heads towards becoming law. First, we look at the big picture: what does the evidence say about the ERB’s likely economic impacts? Second, with much of the detail missing from the ERB’s provisions relating to hours insecurity, we explore what those details should be. Finally, we look ahead to the Government’s planned reforms to employment status, and ask how progress can be made on ambitions to reduce bogus self-employment. READ MORE
Labour market· Cities and regions The power of place The role of place in driving regional pay inequalities 23 June 2025 by Richmond Egyei and Emily Fry and Tasos Kitsos and Dalila Ribaudo and Greg Thwaites and Enrico Vanino Tracking English early-career workers using the Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset, we show one-third of regional wage gaps arise from place, not people. Identical full-time workers earn about £1,300 (5 per cent) more by moving from Dudley to Harrogate. READ MORE
Labour market· Migration Precarious prospects Understanding precarious work among foreign-born workers 14 April 2025 by Hannah Slaughter and Imogen Stone This briefing note examines the experiences of precarious work among foreign-born workers, how poor enforcement of rules can drag down standards for UK-born workers too, and what policy can do to respond. READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Unstable Pay New estimates of earnings volatility in the UK 4 March 2025 by Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Stephen P. Jenkins This report uses a newly available dataset – payroll data held by HM Revenue and Customs on over 250,000 working-age people covering April 2014 to March 2019 – to look at monthly and weekly volatility in employee pre-tax earnings. It is one of a very few UK studies to look at high-frequency earnings volatility on … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q4 2024 30 December 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter In this Labour Market Outlook, we examine how the Government should approach extending Statutory Sick Pay (SSP) to the lowest earners, and in particular what replacement rate – the proportion of their earnings that workers will get while off sick – to set for those workers who will be newly eligible. There is a clear … Continued READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Labour market A hard day’s night The labour market experience of low-to-middle income families 12 December 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report describes the labour market experiences of low-to-middle income families and how these have changed over the past quarter century. It explores those families’ employment, pay, experiences at work, and their feelings about changing jobs and progressing in work. READ MORE
Labour market Get Britain’s Stats Working Exploring alternatives to Labour Force Survey estimates 20 November 2024 by Adam Corlett Given continued concern about the accuracy of many of the UK’s existing labour market statistics, this report presents an alternative assessment of what may have happened to employment, unemployment and inactivity rates since 2019. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Skills Labour Market Outlook Q3 2024 The Growth and Skills Levy 28 September 2024 by Sofia Corcoran and Louise Murphy In its first few months in office, the new Labour Government has announced a host of new skills policies. [1] Arguably the most high-profile of these is the planned new “flexible” Growth and Skills Levy, replacing the previous Government’s Apprenticeship Levy. There are good reasons to consider changing the Levy: apprenticeships aren’t currently doing a … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Labour market Job done? Assessing the labour market since 2010 and the challenges for the next government 25 June 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter The record on the labour market since 2010 is mixed – strong employment growth (albeit a partial reversal post-pandemic), alongside a 14-year real wage stagnation. On their plans for the future, the Conservative party would stick with the status quo, while Labour propose the biggest overhaul of labour market policy in a generation, including a higher minimum wage and a ‘day one’ right to protection from unfair dismissal. READ MORE
Firms· Labour market Firm foundations Understanding why employers use flexible contracts 25 April 2024 by Hannah Slaughter At the end of 2023, more than one-in-eight (13 per cent) employees in UK were working on some form of flexible contract that can be viewed as ‘precarious’, accounting for 3.8 million workers nationwide. From variable-hours and zero-hours contracts to temporary work such as casual, seasonal or short-term employment, flexible contracts often entail considerable uncertainty … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q2 2024 Happy 25th birthday to the minimum wage 27 March 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter This year’s minimum wage uprating is large: roughly 1.6 million workers stand to benefit directly on 1 April when the adult rate rises to £11.44 – giving a cash increase of 9.8 per cent and a real-terms increase of 7.8 per cent. These are the third largest annual increases in the minimum wage’s history. 1 … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health A U-shaped legacy Taking stock of trends in economic inactivity in 2024 23 March 2024 by Louise Murphy In an election year, jobs and benefits are often centre stage. Alongside the UK’s stagnant wage growth, there is one big issue that will face the next government: the rises in economic inactivity and health-related benefit claims. Real pay growth, unemployment and vacancies have all returned roughly to 2019 rates. But there is one aspect … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills· Wellbeing and mental health We’ve only just begun Action to improve young people’s mental health, education and employment 26 February 2024 by Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy The transition to adulthood is a tumultuous time: leaving education, entering the labour market, living independent of family and managing one’s finances all come with their stresses and strains. But this crucial part of the life course can be especially challenging for young people with mental health problems who are more likely to struggle in … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q1 2024 29 January 2024 by Charlie McCurdy When comparing the pre-pandemic period to today, the national employment story has generally focused on the rise in inactivity due to ill health and the resultant fall in employment. However, in this note, we show that this is not the picture in all parts of the country. First, not everywhere has seen employment fall. Low-employment … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q4 2023 What’s happening to pay growth? 12 December 2023 by Hannah Slaughter Over the course of 2023, the labour market has been gradually cooling on most measures. Even ignoring data from the Labour Force Survey that has recently been called into question, vacancies have been falling for 16 consecutive months and growth in payrolled employment has slowed. But nominal wage growth has remained resilient – even, since … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Labour market· Wealth & assets· Housing· Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2023 13 November 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti Five years ago, our Intergenerational Commission set out the numerous threats to the UK’s promise of intergenerational progress. More recently, the spotlight has once again fallen on this issue, but this time in the US, where the latest data has started to suggest that living standards for the millennials are catching up with, and on … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Living Wage Giving with one hand … Exploring the impact of minimum wage uprating in 2024 on living standards 4 November 2023 by Nye Cominetti At this year’s Conservative Party Conference, the Chancellor announced that the minimum wage would rise to at least £11 next year, up from its current rate of £10.42. But he may have under-promised. Using the standard uprating methodology, we estimate that the new adult-rate minimum wage could be as high as £11.46 in April 2024 … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q2 2023 14 August 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Nadim Hamdan and Hannah Slaughter The UK has seen more strikes in the past year than in any since the 1980s. These strikes have been concentrated in the public and transport sectors, where unionisation rates are highest. The public and public-funded sectors have seen a bigger pay hit than the private sector overall, but there are exceptions – highly unionised … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills· Wellbeing and mental health Left behind Exploring the prevalence of youth worklessness due to ill health in different parts of the UK 5 June 2023 by Louise Murphy This briefing note is part of the Health Foundation’s Young people’s future health inquiry, in which we focus on the prevalence of youth worklessness due to ill health in different parts of the UK. We find that young people in small towns or villages are more likely than young people in big cities to be out of work due to ill health. READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market Enforce for good Effectively enforcing labour market rights in the 2020s and beyond 25 April 2023 by Lindsay Judge and Hannah Slaughter This report concludes a four-year work programme at the Resolution Foundation supported by Unbound Philanthropy exploring the what, why and how of labour market enforcement. We bring together data and qualitative analysis with five cross-country studies to show how we could do better in the UK when it comes to enforcing labour market rights. READ MORE
Economy 2030· Labour market· Low pay Low Pay Britain 2023 Improving low-paid work through higher minimum standards 19 April 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy and Greg Thwaites and Rui Costa After a decade and a half of relative economic decline, Britain needs a new economic strategy. And good work must be at its heart – an explicit goal, not a hoped-for by-product of growth. This is a necessary precondition for a strategy that offers a credible promise of shared prosperity in the years ahead, strengthening … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q1 2023 6 April 2023 by Hannah Slaughter In recent months, labour market commentary has been dominated by the knock-on effects of the ongoing cost of living crisis. High inflation continues to erode real wages, despite strong nominal pay growth – and, in contrast to some policy makers’ fears that private sector wage growth could in itself drive prices higher, the latest evidence … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Economic growth Wages are flatlining 22 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Charlie McCurdy This Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets. Discussion of whether the central bank has one final rate rise in it before pausing have focused on whether the Bank’s hand will be stayed by the instability we are seeing playing out in the banking sector from Silicon Valley to Switzerland (in … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health Post-pandemic participation Exploring labour force participation in the UK, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the decade ahead 21 February 2023 by Louise Murphy and Greg Thwaites Labour market inactivity has increased. Many of the newly inactive won’t come back. Boosting labour market participation means focusing on older workers, women with children, and those affected by rising ill-health and disability – groups where progress has been made and scope for more remains. READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Social care· Labour market· Low pay Who cares? The experience of social care workers, and the enforcement of employment rights in the sector 26 January 2023 by Nye Cominetti The social care sector, as well as playing a vital role for many people and for our society, is an important employer, with 1.7 million social care jobs across the UK in 2022. Jobs in social care have many positive aspects of working in the sector, including the ability to form deep personal connections with … Continued READ MORE
