Back on target

Analysis of the Government’s additional cost of living support

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The Chancellor yesterday announced a big and well-targeted package of energy bill support. Of the £15 billion of new measures, almost double that announced earlier in the year, twice as much will go to households in the bottom half of the income distribution as the top half. This fills the gaping hole left by the … Continued

Cap off

Understanding the April 2022 inflation release

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Inflation reached a 40-year high in April off the back of a sharp rise in energy bills and the highest food price inflation in a decade. These recent drivers of inflation mean that lower-income families are facing the most severe cost pressures, with their inflation rate already hitting double digits. Families are already responding to … Continued

Happy new tax year?

National Insurance and Income Tax changes in 2022

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The start of the new tax year brings with it one of Rishi Sunak’s major tax reforms: the rise in National Insurance, announced last September and linked to additional support for the NHS and social care. This spotlight explores what this rate rise – together with freezes in the Income Tax personal allowance, the newly-announced … Continued

Inflation Nation

Putting Spring Statement 2022 in context

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This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2022 Spring Statement.  The Chancellor approached this with the highest inflation in 40 years and the worst income squeeze on record lying ahead of us.  Against that backdrop, and with plenty of fiscal ammunition (thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) … Continued

Softening the blow

Looking ahead to Spring Statement 2022

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Faced with the highest inflation in at least three decades, the upcoming Spring Statement is bound to provide more support for households. But the precise set of choices – which could include support via Fuel Duty, benefits or National Insurance – will play an important role in determining the force of the cost of living … Continued

Catch 2022

Spring Statement 2022 preview

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Ahead of the 2022 Spring Statement, we preview the economic and fiscal outlook and discuss the key decisions that the Chancellor will face. The Chancellor comes into the Spring Statement with good news since the Autumn. The strongest peacetime growth in a century means the economy is around half a per cent larger, and around … Continued

The price is right?

The April 2022 energy price rise and the Government’s response

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The Government has opted for universalism and minimising the hit to the public purse in its response to the energy price rise yesterday. The announced measures take the sting out of Ofgem’s £693 rise in the energy price cap in April with a broad-based package of support. All households will get a £200 discount on … Continued

The Boris Budget

Resolution Foundation analysis of Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021

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This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review. The Chancellor has unveiled a career-defining third Budget against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and risks. His aim: to draw a line under Covid-19, boost spending in the key priority areas yet also bear down on the … Continued

The Uncertainty Principle

Previewing the decisions to be taken at the Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021

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This report is our analysis of the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of the upcoming Autumn 2021 Budget – including what it will mean for the decisions the Chancellor will need to take at the Spending Review. The starting point for the Budget is that the economy is in a much stronger position than was … Continued

Nationally Insured?

New taxes and new spending to address key Department for Health and Social Care priorities

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This note assesses the announcements made by the Government on the suspension of the Triple Lock, National Insurance rises, health and social care funding, and public spending totals for the rest of this Parliament made on 7 September 2021.

To govern is to choose

The choices facing the Chancellor this autumn

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The Chancellor has not had a quiet introduction to national policy making: overseeing 17 major fiscal announcements in as many months. This summer provided the first lull, driven by the success of vaccines and the understandable focus on Afghanistan. But the quiet phase is coming to an end. Alongside dealing with whatever new paths the … Continued

Spending fast, taxing slow

Resolution Foundation analysis of Budget 2021

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This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2021 Budget. The context for this Budget was an intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic, creating a need for further policy measures to support families and firms in the months before the completion of the vaccine rollout. In response, the Chancellor announced significant … Continued

How to throw good money after good

Budget 2021 and the challenge of delivering a rapid recovery from Covid-19

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While the strength of the economic recovery from Covid-19 will depend on the vaccine rollout and the Government’s ‘road map’ for easing social distancing restrictions, it will also depend on decisions taken at the Budget which are the economic counterpart to that reopening plan. This paper assesses the economic context to the Budget: how the … Continued

Here today, gone tomorrow

Putting Spending Review 2020 into context

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This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued

The Covid state

Analysis of the economy and public finances ahead of the 2020 Spending Review

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The Chancellor is set to unveil his Spending Review against a radically changed economic and fiscal backdrop to the one he faced in March. Although unemployment is set to peak lower and later than had been expected back in the Summer, the long-term economic scarring from this crisis is set to be significant. The OBR’s … Continued

Unhealthy finances

How to support the economy today and repair the public finances tomorrow

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This report provides analysis of the dual challenges faced by the government: ensuring that there is sufficient fiscal support through the crisis and recovery, and setting fiscal policy on a sustainable long-term path. Some argue it is unsustainable to provide the massive government support during the crisis, while others see little constraint on government borrowing … Continued

The Winter (Economy Plan) is coming

Chancellor ramps economic support back up, but avoidable design flaws will limit its success in stemming the Autumn rise in unemployment

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Economic policy yesterday caught back up with the ramping back up of social distancing restrictions by the Prime Minister earlier in the week. The Chancellor rightly announced new measures rather than sticking to plans to phase out help for workers and firms.   His most significant policy was the Job Support Scheme (JSS), an extended, … Continued

Summer Economic Update July 2020

Resolution Foundation overnight analysis

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This was not a Budget, but was still a big deal with £30bn of measures to support the economy. This is particularly significant when seen in combination with £160bn of pandemic-related support already announced, leaving borrowing this year on course to reach £350bn. Debt interest costs will continue to fall, although the crisis will leave … Continued

Public finances under pressure

Lessons for policy makers from April’s public finance figures

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April’s Public Sector Finances data capture the first full month of the coronavirus lockdown and provide a sobering reminder of the fiscal costs of the pandemic. Public sector net borrowing was £62.1 billion last month, the highest level ever recorded and nearly three time higher than the last record of £22 billion in April 2012. … Continued

Doing more of what it takes

Next steps in the economic response to coronavirus

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The Government has responded to coronavirus by shutting down large parts of the UK economy, and socialising the costs of doing so through a package of fiscal support to firms and individuals unprecedented in size and scope. Given uncertainty about how long public health restrictions will need to be in place, economic policy makers need to be prepared to manage what could … Continued

Safeguarding governments’ financial health during coronavirus

What can policymakers learn from past viral outbreaks?

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In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, governments have taken unprecedented steps to protect the health of their citizens and support their economies. They now need to take extraordinary steps to safeguard their own financial health through what could be a protracted period of economic disruption necessary to contain and eradicate the virus. This paper … Continued

Doing what it takes

Protecting firms and families from the economic impact of coronavirus

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The coronavirus health crisis is now a full-blown economic crisis, and one that may last for much more than a few months. Firms will go bust and unemployment will rise. The majority of this economic damage will be driven not by the direct impact of coronavirus itself, but by the necessary measures – such as social distancing – that we put in place to respond to it.

Euston, we have a problem

Is Britain ready for an infrastructure revolution?

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The centrepiece of the new government’s first Budget is expected to be an ‘infrastructure revolution’ – spending at least an additional £100 billion over the next five years on public investment. This is significant because such spending has the potential to support economic growth, improve living standards and protect the environment. So this report considers … Continued

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