Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances We’re going on a growth Hunt Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context 16 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances New Budget, same problems Spring Budget preview 6 March 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In our Spring Budget preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget on March 15th, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor in three key areas: cost-of-living support, public sector pay and boosting growth. We find that there is finally some good news for the Chancellor in the short … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Help today, squeeze tomorrow Putting the 2022 Autumn Statement in context 18 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report presents Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the 2022 Autumn Statement. In the face of grim economic and fiscal forecasts, Jeremy Hunt announced energy support today but tougher times tomorrow, with stealth tax rises for the middle and top of the income distribution followed by spending cuts after the next election. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances One statement, two challenges How the Autumn Statement is likely to respond to weaker public finances and high energy bills 15 November 2022 by Torsten Bell It’s been brought forward, delayed and renamed, but the Autumn Statement is finally happening this week. While the timing has been uncertain, from the coverage of recent weeks you’d think its purpose was a very clear story of two Prime Ministers: Liz Truss created a fiscal black hole and Rishi Sunak is now filling it … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Mind the (credibility) gap Autumn Statement preview 1 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Lalitha Try In our Autumn-Statement preview slidepack, we present new analysis that explores the economic outlook ahead of the Autumn Statement on 17 November, and the critical decisions that the new Prime Minister and Chancellor must make. With the latest political turmoil triggered by attempts to completely rewrite economic policy, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are under … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Cutting tax cuts Jeremy Hunt rewrites Government’s economic policy 17 October 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith The new Chancellor has rewritten UK economic policy in order to reduce the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the Treasury to deliver spending cuts. He has now reversed 60 per cent of the tax cuts announced less than four weeks ago and committing to scale back support for energy … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances What next? The impact of Trussonomics, tax cuts and market turmoil 29 September 2022 by Torsten Bell and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith The last few days have seen a radical reshaping of the Government’s economic policy and a radical reaction from financial markets. Out have gone both Treasury orthodoxy and the legacy of the Johnson premiership, and in are lower taxes, higher borrowing – and higher borrowing costs as spooked markets respond. Will this new strategy boost … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Blowing the budget Assessing the implications of the September 2022 fiscal statement 24 September 2022 by Torsten Bell and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor decided to blow the budget in his first fiscal statement, bringing forward a £45 billion package of tax cuts, the biggest for 50 years. In this briefing note, we show that today’s Government is no longer fiscally conservative nor courting the Red Wall. Instead, debt is on course to rise in each and every year of the forecast period, and the focus has shifted to the South of England, where the beneficiaries of these tax cuts are more likely to be living. READ MORE
Living standards· Public spending· Economy and public finances A blank cheque An analysis of the new cap on energy prices 13 September 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith Liz Truss’s first major act as Prime Minister was to set out a huge energy support package to reduce the scale of the living standards’ catastrophe this winter, with the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) as its highlight. The EPG will mean that annual energy prices for the typical household are capped at £2,500 for two … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economy and public finances· Tax· Macroeconomic policy· Political parties and elections Talking tax What’s been said and what’s gone unsaid in the Conservative leadership election? 26 July 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett Elections are rarely entirely about a single issue, but there are exceptions. Brexit in the 2019 general election stands out, and today tax cuts totally dominate the 2022 Conservative leadership election. Judging by last night’s TV debate, the contest is staying that way, with little discussion of the huge questions facing the country, from the … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Welfare Back on target Analysis of the Government’s additional cost of living support 27 May 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall and Lalitha Try The Chancellor yesterday announced a big and well-targeted package of energy bill support. Of the £15 billion of new measures, almost double that announced earlier in the year, twice as much will go to households in the bottom half of the income distribution as the top half. This fills the gaping hole left by the … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Cap off Understanding the April 2022 inflation release 18 May 2022 by Jack Leslie Inflation reached a 40-year high in April off the back of a sharp rise in energy bills and the highest food price inflation in a decade. These recent drivers of inflation mean that lower-income families are facing the most severe cost pressures, with their inflation rate already hitting double digits. Families are already responding to … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax Happy new tax year? National Insurance and Income Tax changes in 2022 3 April 2022 by Adam Corlett The start of the new tax year brings with it one of Rishi Sunak’s major tax reforms: the rise in National Insurance, announced last September and linked to additional support for the NHS and social care. This spotlight explores what this rate rise – together with freezes in the Income Tax personal allowance, the newly-announced … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Inflation Nation Putting Spring Statement 2022 in context 24 March 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2022 Spring Statement. The Chancellor approached this with the highest inflation in 40 years and the worst income squeeze on record lying ahead of us. Against that backdrop, and with plenty of fiscal ammunition (thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax Softening the blow Looking ahead to Spring Statement 2022 21 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Torsten Bell Faced with the highest inflation in at least three decades, the upcoming Spring Statement is bound to provide more support for households. But the precise set of choices – which could include support via Fuel Duty, benefits or National Insurance – will play an important role in determining the force of the cost of living … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Catch 2022 Spring Statement 2022 preview 14 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Felicia Odamtten and James Smith Ahead of the 2022 Spring Statement, we preview the economic and fiscal outlook and discuss the key decisions that the Chancellor will face. The Chancellor comes into the Spring Statement with good news since the Autumn. The strongest peacetime growth in a century means the economy is around half a per cent larger, and around … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty· Economy and public finances The price is right? The April 2022 energy price rise and the Government’s response 4 February 2022 by Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith The Government has opted for universalism and minimising the hit to the public purse in its response to the energy price rise yesterday. The announced measures take the sting out of Ofgem’s £693 rise in the energy price cap in April with a broad-based package of support. All households will get a £200 discount on … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Boris Budget Resolution Foundation analysis of Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 28 October 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review. The Chancellor has unveiled a career-defining third Budget against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and risks. His aim: to draw a line under Covid-19, boost spending in the key priority areas yet also bear down on the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Uncertainty Principle Previewing the decisions to be taken at the Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 19 October 2021 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This report is our analysis of the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of the upcoming Autumn 2021 Budget – including what it will mean for the decisions the Chancellor will need to take at the Spending Review. The starting point for the Budget is that the economy is in a much stronger position than was … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Nationally Insured? New taxes and new spending to address key Department for Health and Social Care priorities 8 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Lindsay Judge and Krishan Shah and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This note assesses the announcements made by the Government on the suspension of the Triple Lock, National Insurance rises, health and social care funding, and public spending totals for the rest of this Parliament made on 7 September 2021. READ MORE
Social care· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances To govern is to choose The choices facing the Chancellor this autumn 6 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor has not had a quiet introduction to national policy making: overseeing 17 major fiscal announcements in as many months. This summer provided the first lull, driven by the success of vaccines and the understandable focus on Afghanistan. But the quiet phase is coming to an end. Alongside dealing with whatever new paths the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spending fast, taxing slow Resolution Foundation analysis of Budget 2021 4 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2021 Budget. The context for this Budget was an intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic, creating a need for further policy measures to support families and firms in the months before the completion of the vaccine rollout. In response, the Chancellor announced significant … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy How to throw good money after good Budget 2021 and the challenge of delivering a rapid recovery from Covid-19 25 February 2021 by Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith While the strength of the economic recovery from Covid-19 will depend on the vaccine rollout and the Government’s ‘road map’ for easing social distancing restrictions, it will also depend on decisions taken at the Budget which are the economic counterpart to that reopening plan. This paper assesses the economic context to the Budget: how the … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Here today, gone tomorrow Putting Spending Review 2020 into context 26 November 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Covid state Analysis of the economy and public finances ahead of the 2020 Spending Review 20 November 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Daniel Tomlinson and James Smith The Chancellor is set to unveil his Spending Review against a radically changed economic and fiscal backdrop to the one he faced in March. Although unemployment is set to peak lower and later than had been expected back in the Summer, the long-term economic scarring from this crisis is set to be significant. The OBR’s … Continued READ MORE
