Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Uncertainty Principle Previewing the decisions to be taken at the Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 19 October 2021 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This report is our analysis of the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of the upcoming Autumn 2021 Budget – including what it will mean for the decisions the Chancellor will need to take at the Spending Review. The starting point for the Budget is that the economy is in a much stronger position than was … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Nationally Insured? New taxes and new spending to address key Department for Health and Social Care priorities 8 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Lindsay Judge and Krishan Shah and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This note assesses the announcements made by the Government on the suspension of the Triple Lock, National Insurance rises, health and social care funding, and public spending totals for the rest of this Parliament made on 7 September 2021. READ MORE
Social care· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Universal Credit· Economy and public finances To govern is to choose The choices facing the Chancellor this autumn 6 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor has not had a quiet introduction to national policy making: overseeing 17 major fiscal announcements in as many months. This summer provided the first lull, driven by the success of vaccines and the understandable focus on Afghanistan. But the quiet phase is coming to an end. Alongside dealing with whatever new paths the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spending fast, taxing slow Resolution Foundation analysis of Budget 2021 4 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2021 Budget. The context for this Budget was an intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic, creating a need for further policy measures to support families and firms in the months before the completion of the vaccine rollout. In response, the Chancellor announced significant … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy How to throw good money after good Budget 2021 and the challenge of delivering a rapid recovery from Covid-19 25 February 2021 by Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith While the strength of the economic recovery from Covid-19 will depend on the vaccine rollout and the Government’s ‘road map’ for easing social distancing restrictions, it will also depend on decisions taken at the Budget which are the economic counterpart to that reopening plan. This paper assesses the economic context to the Budget: how the … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Here today, gone tomorrow Putting Spending Review 2020 into context 26 November 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Covid state Analysis of the economy and public finances ahead of the 2020 Spending Review 20 November 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Daniel Tomlinson and James Smith The Chancellor is set to unveil his Spending Review against a radically changed economic and fiscal backdrop to the one he faced in March. Although unemployment is set to peak lower and later than had been expected back in the Summer, the long-term economic scarring from this crisis is set to be significant. The OBR’s … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Tax· Macroeconomic policy Unhealthy finances How to support the economy today and repair the public finances tomorrow 11 November 2020 by George Bangham and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report provides analysis of the dual challenges faced by the government: ensuring that there is sufficient fiscal support through the crisis and recovery, and setting fiscal policy on a sustainable long-term path. Some argue it is unsustainable to provide the massive government support during the crisis, while others see little constraint on government borrowing … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Economy and public finances The Winter (Economy Plan) is coming Chancellor ramps economic support back up, but avoidable design flaws will limit its success in stemming the Autumn rise in unemployment 25 September 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson Economic policy yesterday caught back up with the ramping back up of social distancing restrictions by the Prime Minister earlier in the week. The Chancellor rightly announced new measures rather than sticking to plans to phase out help for workers and firms. His most significant policy was the Job Support Scheme (JSS), an extended, … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q3 2020 21 September 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. While the OBR forecast that the unemployment rate will rise to match its 1980s peak of 11.9 per cent, the Bank of England is projecting a rise … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Summer Economic Update July 2020 Resolution Foundation overnight analysis 9 July 2020 by Resolution Foundation Analysis This was not a Budget, but was still a big deal with £30bn of measures to support the economy. This is particularly significant when seen in combination with £160bn of pandemic-related support already announced, leaving borrowing this year on course to reach £350bn. Debt interest costs will continue to fall, although the crisis will leave … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2020 28 May 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates This is the second Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we bring together the insights from new research into the impact of coronavirus on the economy with the latest data on its effects, in order to draw out the lessons for policy makers. There are three key takeaways. … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economy and public finances Public finances under pressure Lessons for policy makers from April’s public finance figures 22 May 2020 by Torsten Bell and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti April’s Public Sector Finances data capture the first full month of the coronavirus lockdown and provide a sobering reminder of the fiscal costs of the pandemic. Public sector net borrowing was £62.1 billion last month, the highest level ever recorded and nearly three time higher than the last record of £22 billion in April 2012. … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Labour market· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Doing more of what it takes Next steps in the economic response to coronavirus 16 April 2020 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has responded to coronavirus by shutting down large parts of the UK economy, and socialising the costs of doing so through a package of fiscal support to firms and individuals unprecedented in size and scope. Given uncertainty about how long public health restrictions will need to be in place, economic policy makers need to be prepared to manage what could … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Safeguarding governments’ financial health during coronavirus What can policymakers learn from past viral outbreaks? 25 March 2020 by Richard Hughes In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, governments have taken unprecedented steps to protect the health of their citizens and support their economies. They now need to take extraordinary steps to safeguard their own financial health through what could be a protracted period of economic disruption necessary to contain and eradicate the virus. This paper … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Living standards· Firms· Economy and public finances· Welfare Doing what it takes Protecting firms and families from the economic impact of coronavirus 19 March 2020 by Resolution Foundation Analysis The coronavirus health crisis is now a full-blown economic crisis, and one that may last for much more than a few months. Firms will go bust and unemployment will rise. The majority of this economic damage will be driven not by the direct impact of coronavirus itself, but by the necessary measures – such as social distancing – that we put in place to respond to it. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Euston, we have a problem Is Britain ready for an infrastructure revolution? 4 March 2020 by Richard Hughes and Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti and Andrew Bailey The centrepiece of the new government’s first Budget is expected to be an ‘infrastructure revolution’ – spending at least an additional £100 billion over the next five years on public investment. This is significant because such spending has the potential to support economic growth, improve living standards and protect the environment. So this report considers … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The trillion-pound question Spring Budget 2020 and the tension between higher spending, low taxes and fiscal credibility 24 February 2020 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Daniel Tomlinson This report focuses on the big choice that the Chancellor will have to make this year, across two Budgets and the Spending Review, over the balance between day-to-day (current) spending, taxation and additional borrowing. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2020 20 February 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is the first of a new series of Macro Policy Outlooks (MPOs) from the Resolution Foundation’s Macroeconomic Policy Unit, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition we explore the outlook ahead of the Budget due on 11 March. The economy has slowed significantly in recent quarters, with 2019 the second-weakest post-war … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economy and public finances· Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy The beginning of the end… …but not the end of the beginning Governor Carney’s valedictory speech discusses the future of the UK’s monetary policy remit – but this is just the start of an important debate 10 January 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates The beginning of the end… After several false starts, the appointment of his successor (Andrew Bailey) means Mark Carney finally has a leaving date (15 March). He can now concentrate on the serious business of organising his leaving parties securing his legacy from his longer-than-expected time as Bank of England Governor. That all started yesterday … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy· Political parties and elections Playing by their own rules? We analyse whether the policy platforms announced by the main parties are consistent with their own fiscal rules 28 November 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith Fiscal rules are crucial for the government’s stewardship of the public finances and framing its economic priorities. So it is welcome that the main parties have prioritised setting out the rules they would follow, with their announcements following to different degrees the approach recommended by earlier Resolution Foundation work. But fiscal rules are only useful … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Oven-ready, safety-first Assessing the Conservatives' 2019 manifesto 24 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Brexit is happening, but big tax cuts aren’t. That’s the short version of the already fairly short Conservative Manifesto. This manifesto does not tell us much about what the Conservatives would do after 31st January 2020, but it does confirm the country faces a big choice in this election on the size of the … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax The shifting shape of UK tax Charting the changing size and shape of the UK tax system 13 November 2019 by Adam Corlett Ahead of the general election, this report looks at how and why levels of UK taxation have changed over time; how its make-up has shifted; the challenges facing the tax system, and what the parties may propose to do about it. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections The shape of things to come Charting the changing size and shape of the UK state 4 November 2019 by Matthew Whittaker This report marks the first in a series of pre-election pieces that focus on the fiscal backdrop to the vote. It takes a long-run view of the size and shape of government spending in the UK, and considers how things might change under the next government. READ MORE
