Trade Leaving EU behind How Britain lost its trading edge and whether Brexit is to blame 22 June 2026 by Sophie Hale and Stephen Hunsaker and Simon Pittaway A decade after the Brexit vote, the UK has lost its trading edge in goods faster and more broadly than any G7 peer. This briefing note explores why that has happened, and what the Government must do to turn the tide READ MORE
Monetary policy· Public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2026 22 April 2026 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Greg Thwaites Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began nearly two months ago, global energy markets have been volatile. But the shock facing Britain has so far been smaller than that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: UK gas prices peaked at 78p per them above pre-war levels – not 300p, as in 2022. Even so, a … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Macroeconomic policy Credit where credit’s due? Unpacking the distributional impact of Britain’s mortgage lending rules 26 March 2026 by Hannah Aldridge and Simon Pittaway and James Smith Almost half of Britain’s 8.3 million potential first-time buyers earn enough for a mortgage on a starter home, but just 11 per cent have enough saved for a deposit. A targeted equity-loan scheme is the best way to help up to one million locked out of home ownership READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Understatement of the year Putting the 2026 Spring Forecast in context 4 March 2026 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Cillian Sheehan and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Jamie Titus-Glover and Lalitha Try The Spring Forecast was billed as a non‑event, but the underlying story is stark: weak growth, rising risks, and only a fleeting improvement in living standards. Our analysis shows why makerspolicy makers can’t rely on good fiscal luck lasting. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Stairway to headroom Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 27 November 2025 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor’s second tax-rising budget arrived under dark clouds, but forecasts came in better than feared. But even though she was saved from the worst predictions of past weeks, the Chancellor still faced a tough task to clear three big hurdles – fixing the public finances, easing the cost of living squeeze on families, and taxing smartly and fairly. This briefing note argues that she did clear these hurdles, albeit not flawlessly. She scraped over … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth· Unsung Britain Money on my mind Understanding the savings, debt and financial resilience of low-to-middle income families 10 September 2025 by Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway This report finds falling consumer debt and modest improvements in saving, but rising arrears on priority bills like energy and Council Tax. It highlights the growing risks families face, and the urgent need for stronger support to build financial resilience. READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption· Unsung Britain The bare necessities Unpacking the rising cost of essentials for low-to-middle income Britain 30 June 2025 by Simon Pittaway and Lalitha Try This briefing note examines how prices have changed over time in three key areas of spending: energy, food and transport. We also propose policy changes that can make essential costs more affordable for low-to-middle income households, and improve their incomes. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances A healthy State? Putting the 2025 Spending Review into context 12 June 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Charlie McCurdy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Greg Thwaites Yesterday saw the Chancellor reveal the results of the first ‘zero-based’ review since 2008, the first stand-alone Spending Review since 2019, and the first three-year plan since 2021. It was the Government’s chance to say what its priorities are after painful announcements on higher taxes and borrowing, and then welfare cuts, at the Autumn Budget … Continued READ MORE
Growth· Investment· Technology Yanked away Accounting for the post-pandemic productivity divergence between Britain and America 8 April 2025 by Simon Pittaway Britain’s record of productivity growth in the 2010s was dismal. But halfway through the 2020s things appear to have got worse not better, with official data likely understating the scale of Britain’s ongoing productivity crisis. America has been on a different track so far this decade. It is the only G7 economy where productivity growth … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Incomes· Social security Unsung Britain bears the brunt Putting the 2025 Spring Statement in context 27 March 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This briefing note analyses the choices the Government has made in the context of an awkward backdrop to the 2025 Spring Statement. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The headroom bind Spring Statement 2025 preview 17 March 2025 by James Smith and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Spring Statement, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of this key economic-policy event. We focus on the news since the Autumn Budget and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2025 30 January 2025 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith It has been a bleak winter for the Government’s hopes that the economy might turn a corner. Markets have been volatile, with the cost of government borrowing rising to its highest level since July 2008 with the pound falling sharply. READ MORE
Wealth What’s up? Five key takeaways from new data on household wealth on the eve of the cost of living crisis 24 January 2025 by Molly Broome and Simon Pittaway Today’s release of long-awaited data from the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) allows us to finally shed more light on family finances during the Covid-19 pandemic. It shows that total household wealth continued to grow faster than the size of the economy – a trend dating back to the mid-1980s. READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption Whose price is it anyway? Comparing the spending power of low-to-middle income families in Britain and abroad 13 January 2025 by Zaynah Janan and Simon Pittaway A long-standing finding is that British households on low-to-middle incomes are poorer than their counterparts in many advanced economies. READ MORE
Incomes· Public services Public pivot How a growing state will shape the living standards outlook for 2025 7 January 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites 2025 will be a year with a bigger role for the state. Jeremy Hunt cut taxes in his last two Budgets and planned to pay for them with real-terms cuts to public spending in many areas. READ MORE
Incomes· Growth Aiming high? Assessing the Government’s new targets for its growth mission 5 December 2024 by Adam Corlett and Simon Pittaway and James Smith In government, priorities matter. And today the Government underscored its key priorities, announcing six ‘milestones’ for its six missions. When it comes to its mission for growth, there has been a welcome shift in focus towards living standards. READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Wealth Inequality control Why wealth inequality has not increased while asset prices have soared and what that means for the future 28 November 2024 by Simon Pittaway The turbulent 2020s have had profound implications for household wealth in Britain: lockdowns pushed saving to unprecedented highs, asset prices surged and then tanked, and high inflation eroded the real value of wealth. This recent turbulence came on the back of decades of rising wealth. But, unlike elsewhere, relative wealth inequality in Britain did not soar during the era of rapidly rising wealth. This report discusses what lies behind this puzzling stability, which is key to understanding the reality of wealth inequality in Britain today and how it might evolve in future. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Wealth Wealth check What the new Government needs to know about household wealth as it navigates the challenges ahead 28 July 2024 by Simon Pittaway British household wealth has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent years. In Q1 2024, it was estimated to be worth more than six times GDP (630 per cent), more than 50 per cent higher than the last time Labour came into power (410 per cent in 1997). The key driver of this huge rise … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Social security· Tax· Political parties and elections Growing for gold? Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Labour Manifesto 14 June 2024 by Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Emily Fry and Tara Goatley and Charlie McCurdy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try In launching its manifesto, the Labour Party put the emphasis on efforts to boost growth. But more eye-catching were promises of some of the biggest changes to the labour market in a generation, with the aim of improving the quality of work. Proposals here included new employment rights, tougher labour-market enforcement, and an innovative approach … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Social security· Tax· Political parties and elections The narrow path to NICs cuts Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Conservative Manifesto 12 June 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emma Beale and Molly Broome and Lindsay Judge and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Lalitha Try The launch of the Conservative manifesto is a big moment in this election campaign. The strategy here was clear: treble down on National Insurance (NI) rate cuts. The continued focus on NI is welcome, at least compared to the alternatives, and delivers significant cuts in tax for some, with the proposed 2p reduction delivering a … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Growth· Trade Life in the slow lane Assessing the UK’s economic and trade performance since 2010 9 June 2024 by Emily Fry and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites This briefing note is the third output in a programme of outputs designed to put the upcoming UK general election in context, supported by the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at the performance of the UK economy and trade since 2010. The UK grew faster than other G7 economies in the first quarter of 2024 but, … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Incomes Paying the price How the inflation surge has reshaped the British economy 17 May 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Ian Mulheirn and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and James Smith The UK has experienced its highest inflation for more than 40 years, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But next week will bring the welcome news that inflation has returned close to the 2 per cent target for the first time since July 2021. In this briefing note we take a step back and look at … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth In too deep? The impact of the cost of living crisis on household debt 29 February 2024 by Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway Hard economic times and rising interest rates have brought a renewed focus on household debt in recent years, with concerns that more and more families could find themselves overwhelmed by the burden of debt. So this briefing note takes a closer look at the use of consumer debt (such as credit cards, personal loans and … Continued READ MORE
