Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy The art of expectations management A bleak outlook from the Bank of England as it scales back rate hike expectations 3 November 2022 by James Smith The Bank of England has raised rates by 75 basis points today – the eighth successive increase and the largest since 1989 – to 3 per cent, the highest since November 2008. Despite this historic rise, the big news was that the Bank signalled very clearly that market expectations for further rate rises had gone … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2022 10 October 2022 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith In this edition of the MPO we consider the nature of the inflation challenge facing the Bank of England and the impact of the ‘Mini Budget’ on it. Here it is important to remember that the colossal scale of the energy shock – which for household incomes could be three times the size of that … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Slower for longer The Bank of England tightens monetary policy again and warns that the outlook is bleak 4 August 2022 by Jack Leslie and James Smith The Bank of England today unveiled the biggest rise in interest rates since 1995 along with plans to bring down the stock of Quantitative Easing (QE) by £80 billion over the next year. But the real news in today’s announcements was the extent to which the central bank expects the cost of living crisis to … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Living standards· Macroeconomic policy In the dread of winter Prospects for inflation in the coming months ahead of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report 3 August 2022 by Jack Leslie In the face of the highest inflation rate for 40 years, many are predicting that the Bank of England will announce the largest interest rate rise in 27 years this week. This spotlight focuses on the challenges and uncertainties facing both the Bank of England and UK families from rising inflation this winter. Contrary to … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Macroeconomic policy As good as it gets? The forces driving economic stagnation and what they mean for the decade ahead 18 July 2022 by James Smith With inflation at levels not seen since the early 1980s, it is clear that the UK is in the midst of a huge hit to real incomes. But the seeds for the devastating impact of the cost of living crisis were sown by a slump in growth that is unprecedented in the post-war period and … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Cap off Understanding the April 2022 inflation release 18 May 2022 by Jack Leslie Inflation reached a 40-year high in April off the back of a sharp rise in energy bills and the highest food price inflation in a decade. These recent drivers of inflation mean that lower-income families are facing the most severe cost pressures, with their inflation rate already hitting double digits. Families are already responding to … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Crunch time Bank of England raises rates again and signals cost of living crisis is set to deliver a £1,200 hit to incomes 5 May 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith Today the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised rates at a fourth successive meeting – a first in the 25 years since it was granted independence – to 1 per cent, a level not seen since the financial crisis. The direct impact of this change in rates on households will be small in the … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q1 2022 4 March 2022 by James Smith 2022 is shaping up to be difficult year for policy makers at the Bank of England. While the fastest recovery from a recession since the war is clearly good news, its unbalanced nature at home and abroad has led to a surprising and precipitous rise in inflation. The rise in inflation reflects a mismatch between … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy What goes down must come up The Bank of England becomes the first major central bank to raise rates but impact will be small with fiscal policy key to Omicron response 16 December 2021 by Jack Leslie and James Smith The Bank of England performed a ‘bait and switch’ by not raising rates in November when many people expected they would, but then raising them today when many thought the rise of Omicron would mean that they would wait to see the impact of the new wave. Many commentators have focussed on the high current … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q3 2021 2 August 2021 by Jack Leslie and James Smith With the economic outlook improving, there has been much debate about when the Bank of England should start tightening policy. But the Bank also faces a key decision about how to tighten. This is important because a successful strategy for withdrawing support is key to delivering a strong recovery. So in this edition of our … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2021 20 June 2021 by James Smith Worries about rising inflation are spreading. In this edition of our regular Macro Policy Outlook we draw a comparison between the UK and the US. Our analysis points to a sharp rise in UK inflation in the coming months, possibly to over 4 per cent. If realised, this would be more than twice the rate … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2021 7 April 2021 by James Smith In this edition of our regular Macro Policy Outlook, we focus on the single biggest measure announced in the recent Budget to boost business investment, a long-running part of the UK’s macroeconomic weakness. The Government’s ‘super deduction’ policy is an innovative way to achieve this, allowing firms to write off an unprecedented 130 per cent … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy How to throw good money after good Budget 2021 and the challenge of delivering a rapid recovery from Covid-19 25 February 2021 by Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith While the strength of the economic recovery from Covid-19 will depend on the vaccine rollout and the Government’s ‘road map’ for easing social distancing restrictions, it will also depend on decisions taken at the Budget which are the economic counterpart to that reopening plan. This paper assesses the economic context to the Budget: how the … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q4 2020 28 December 2020 by James Smith and Torsten Bell and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Nye Cominetti This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. This edition of the Macro Policy Outlook looks ahead to prospects for 2021. The early months of next year will pick up where 2020 left off, … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Tax· Macroeconomic policy Unhealthy finances How to support the economy today and repair the public finances tomorrow 11 November 2020 by George Bangham and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report provides analysis of the dual challenges faced by the government: ensuring that there is sufficient fiscal support through the crisis and recovery, and setting fiscal policy on a sustainable long-term path. Some argue it is unsustainable to provide the massive government support during the crisis, while others see little constraint on government borrowing … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Macroeconomic policy The Bank of England’s options for supporting the economy Lessons from the US 4 November 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates Ahead of this week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, we discuss what recent changes to how US policy makers approach setting interest rates might tell us about what additional support the Bank of England could provide in the face of a second national lockdown. The most important change was the introduction of a ‘flexible average inflation … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q3 2020 21 September 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. While the OBR forecast that the unemployment rate will rise to match its 1980s peak of 11.9 per cent, the Bank of England is projecting a rise … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Act now, or pay later The OBR’s Fiscal Sustainability Report makes clear the implications of a crisis-driven rise in unemployment for the public finances 14 July 2020 by James Smith and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie The OBR’s latest Fiscal Sustainability Report confirms its view that the current crisis could lead to the largest economic contraction in 300 years precipitating a return of unemployment levels not since the 1980s. Given the huge uncertainty, the OBR has produced three scenarios with different assumption about a timetable for finding a vaccine or other … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Summer Economic Update July 2020 Resolution Foundation overnight analysis 9 July 2020 by Resolution Foundation Analysis This was not a Budget, but was still a big deal with £30bn of measures to support the economy. This is particularly significant when seen in combination with £160bn of pandemic-related support already announced, leaving borrowing this year on course to reach £350bn. Debt interest costs will continue to fall, although the crisis will leave … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2020 28 May 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates This is the second Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we bring together the insights from new research into the impact of coronavirus on the economy with the latest data on its effects, in order to draw out the lessons for policy makers. There are three key takeaways. … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Optimism in a time of coronavirus While undoubtedly gloomy, today’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Reports from the Bank of England envisage little lasting damage to the economy or financial system 7 May 2020 by Jack Leslie and James Smith Today the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee provided its first major assessment of the impact of coronavirus on the economy. The MPC envisage growth this year to be the weakest in over 300 years, with a fall of 25 per cent expected in the second quarter, and a fall of 14 per cent for … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Labour market· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Doing more of what it takes Next steps in the economic response to coronavirus 16 April 2020 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has responded to coronavirus by shutting down large parts of the UK economy, and socialising the costs of doing so through a package of fiscal support to firms and individuals unprecedented in size and scope. Given uncertainty about how long public health restrictions will need to be in place, economic policy makers need to be prepared to manage what could … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Helicopters on standby? With rates at all-time lows, the Bank of England needs a different playbook for this crisis 26 March 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates With a big recession on the way, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee would normally be unveiling measures to support the economy today, and this piece would be discussing what they’ve done. But we are not in normal times. Instead, the Bank of England does not have the option of cutting rates in the … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Safeguarding governments’ financial health during coronavirus What can policymakers learn from past viral outbreaks? 25 March 2020 by Richard Hughes In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, governments have taken unprecedented steps to protect the health of their citizens and support their economies. They now need to take extraordinary steps to safeguard their own financial health through what could be a protracted period of economic disruption necessary to contain and eradicate the virus. This paper … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Euston, we have a problem Is Britain ready for an infrastructure revolution? 4 March 2020 by Richard Hughes and Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti and Andrew Bailey The centrepiece of the new government’s first Budget is expected to be an ‘infrastructure revolution’ – spending at least an additional £100 billion over the next five years on public investment. This is significant because such spending has the potential to support economic growth, improve living standards and protect the environment. So this report considers … Continued READ MORE
