Brexit & trade· Economic growth Trump Tariff turmoil The impact of higher US tariffs and the risk of a global recession 14 April 2025 by James Smith and Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites President Trump’s tariff announcements have taken a wrecking ball to the global system of international trade, pushing US tariff rates back to early 20th century levels. Following the suspension of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, the UK’s exposure to automotive and possible “major” pharmaceutical tariffs, means we are set to be affected by more than many other countries, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Low pay· Living Wage Minimum wage, maximum pressure? The impact of 2025’s minimum wage and employer NICs increases 30 March 2025 by Nye Cominetti and Greg Thwaites Looking ahead to the future of the minimum wage, we make four recommendations to the Government and the Low Pay Commission (LPC). First, tax policy should go with the grain of minimum wage policy, not against it… READ MORE
Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Unsung Britain bears the brunt Putting the 2025 Spring Statement in context 27 March 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This briefing note analyses the choices the Government has made in the context of an awkward backdrop to the 2025 Spring Statement. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The headroom bind Spring Statement 2025 preview 17 March 2025 by James Smith and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Spring Statement, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of this key economic-policy event. We focus on the news since the Autumn Budget and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. READ MORE
Living standards Public pivot How a growing state will shape the living standards outlook for 2025 7 January 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites 2025 will be a year with a bigger role for the state. Jeremy Hunt cut taxes in his last two Budgets and planned to pay for them with real-terms cuts to public spending in many areas. Rachel Reeves’s October Budget reversed these plans, pivoting to increasing spending on public services as a share of the … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy The art of strategy How to make a success of the Government’s new Industrial Strategy 9 December 2024 by Greg Thwaites and David Willetts This report critiques the Government’s Invest 2035 industrial strategy Green Paper. It calls for investing in better data and workforce skills, using public procurement as an instrument, and leaning in to the trade-offs when allocating public investment across regions and industries. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth The growth mindset Sizing up the Government’s growth agenda 19 September 2024 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites This report evaluates the UK government’s growth agenda, focusing on policies in infrastructure, housing, and trade. It highlights potential productivity gains and suggests broader reforms to meet ambitious growth targets, aiming to position the UK as the fastest-growing G7 economy. READ MORE
General Election 2024· Brexit & trade· Economic growth Life in the slow lane Assessing the UK’s economic and trade performance since 2010 9 June 2024 by Emily Fry and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites This briefing note is the third output in a programme of outputs designed to put the upcoming UK general election in context, supported by the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at the performance of the UK economy and trade since 2010. The UK grew faster than other G7 economies in the first quarter of 2024 but, … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2024 13 May 2024 by Greg Thwaites Real wages – measured in terms of the goods that workers can buy with their regular wages – rose by around 2 per cent in the year to February 2024. This is much faster than the average in recent years – real wages did not grow at all in the preceding 16 years. The positive … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Election Budget Spring Budget 2024 preview 21 February 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Budget, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of what will be a key pre-election economic-policy event. We focus on the scope for cutting taxes, and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. We find that, despite near-term bad … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Preparing the pitch Autumn Statement 2023 preview 6 November 2023 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2023 5 October 2023 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In this edition of the MPO we focus on the scale and nature of the UK’s inflation challenge, looking at what we can learn from comparisons with other countries, and what that means for monetary policy. A key reason to worry about UK inflation is that it looks exceptional: it is the highest headline inflation … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Ready for change How and why to make the UK economy more dynamic 25 September 2023 by Richard Davies and Nadim Hamdan and Greg Thwaites Britain’s productivity shortfall is its foundational economic problem. Debate about this gap and how to fix it typically focus on raising productivity of existing firms, via two routes. First, innovation: investment, R&D and patenting as ways to inject new ideas into pre-existing firms. Second, diffusion: the cascading of those new technologies and improved management practices … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Tax Tax planning How to match higher taxes with better taxes 28 June 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Greg Thwaites The UK’s tax take is rising, and is likely to stay high, but the system is not improving. The UK needs a tax strategy to support its economic strategy, using the tax system to boost shared growth. This paper, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, describes what a good tax strategy would look like and … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Beyond Boosterism Realigning the policy ecosystem to unleash private investment for sustainable growth 22 June 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mimosa Distefano and Krishan Shah and Greg Thwaites and Anna Valero The UK is a low investment nation. Low business investment is a big driver of this. Low investment is one reason behind the UK’s weak productivity growth, which in turn is the main reason behind the stagnation in UK living standards. Policy makers understand this and have made attempts to fix it. This paper, part … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Low pay· Labour market Low Pay Britain 2023 Improving low-paid work through higher minimum standards 19 April 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy and Greg Thwaites and Rui Costa After a decade and a half of relative economic decline, Britain needs a new economic strategy. And good work must be at its heart – an explicit goal, not a hoped-for by-product of growth. This is a necessary precondition for a strategy that offers a credible promise of shared prosperity in the years ahead, strengthening … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances We’re going on a growth Hunt Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context 16 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances New Budget, same problems Spring Budget preview 6 March 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In our Spring Budget preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget on March 15th, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor in three key areas: cost-of-living support, public sector pay and boosting growth. We find that there is finally some good news for the Chancellor in the short … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health Post-pandemic participation Exploring labour force participation in the UK, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the decade ahead 21 February 2023 by Louise Murphy and Greg Thwaites Labour market inactivity has increased. Many of the newly inactive won’t come back. Boosting labour market participation means focusing on older workers, women with children, and those affected by rising ill-health and disability – groups where progress has been made and scope for more remains. READ MORE
Economy 2030· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Minding the (productivity and income) gaps Decomposing and understanding differences in productivity and income across countries 3 February 2023 by Krishan Shah and Greg Thwaites This week’s round of international economic forecasts (from the IMF, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England) has seen a renewed focus on the UK’s relative economic decline. But while gloomy forecasts about the coming years dominate headlines this expected weak economic growth comes on the back of 15 years of the UK … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Help today, squeeze tomorrow Putting the 2022 Autumn Statement in context 18 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report presents Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the 2022 Autumn Statement. In the face of grim economic and fiscal forecasts, Jeremy Hunt announced energy support today but tougher times tomorrow, with stealth tax rises for the middle and top of the income distribution followed by spending cuts after the next election. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Blowing the budget Assessing the implications of the September 2022 fiscal statement 24 September 2022 by Torsten Bell and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor decided to blow the budget in his first fiscal statement, bringing forward a £45 billion package of tax cuts, the biggest for 50 years. In this briefing note, we show that today’s Government is no longer fiscally conservative nor courting the Red Wall. Instead, debt is on course to rise in each and every year of the forecast period, and the focus has shifted to the South of England, where the beneficiaries of these tax cuts are more likely to be living. READ MORE
