Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Welfare Half time The UK’s commitment to halve poverty by 2030 18 September 2023 by Adam Corlett On 18-19 September, representatives from around the world – including the Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden and the Foreign Secretary James Cleverly – will meet for a UN summit on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals are not just about development in poorer countries: the targets and the discussions around this summit have relevance … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Reassessing the Work Capability Assessment What might the proposed changes to the Work Capability Assessment mean for low-to-middle income families? 6 September 2023 by Louise Murphy Yesterday, the Government announced that it is consulting on changes to the Work Capability Assessment, the assessment used to determine how people with health conditions are treated within the benefits system. Coming shortly after the Health and Disability White Paper, this underlines that we are going to be talking a lot more about health- and … Continued READ MORE
Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year, 2023! Tax and benefit changes coming in 2023-24 1 April 2023 by Adam Corlett 2022-23 featured an array of tax and benefit changes, including the introduction then cancellation of a major tax rate rise, and three big cash payment schemes to help cover living costs. Tax and benefit policy in the financial year 2023-24 may prove to be less fickle, and in this spotlight we set out what is … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Childcare· Welfare Inconsistent Incentives How the overlap between Universal Credit and the High Income Child Benefit Charge limits work incentives 28 December 2022 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Gavin Kelly It is well known that some groups in the UK face high effective tax rates, but the most punitive rates of personal tax arise in a situation that has been almost completely overlooked. Families with an earner on £50,000 to £60,000, whose Child Benefit is withdrawn and who are also eligible for Universal Credit (UC), … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Sticking plasters An assessment of discretionary welfare support 28 October 2022 by Karl Handscomb This briefing note looks at discretionary welfare support in recent years, including crisis provision, Discretionary Housing Payments, and more recently the Household Support Fund. Our analysis shows that discretionary support is increasingly being used as a sticking plaster for broader benefits cuts. READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare The Long Squeeze Benefit uprating policy for April 2023 13 October 2022 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try To offset the impact of tax cuts on the public finances, the Government is considering how it might cut spending. One option that has been discussed is the possibility of raising some benefits in line with earnings rather than inflation next April. This paper explores what this might entail, the potential savings and impacts, and … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Welfare Back on target Analysis of the Government’s additional cost of living support 27 May 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall and Lalitha Try The Chancellor yesterday announced a big and well-targeted package of energy bill support. Of the £15 billion of new measures, almost double that announced earlier in the year, twice as much will go to households in the bottom half of the income distribution as the top half. This fills the gaping hole left by the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Welfare Social Insecurity Assessing trends in social security to prepare for the decade of change ahead 19 January 2022 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Gavin Kelly and James Smith and Lalitha Try The UK is facing a decade of unprecedented economic change as we adjust to a post-Covid-19 economy, a new economic context outside the European Union (EU), and the decarbonisation of the economy. And the social security system has a key role to play in the years ahead: it is part of the policy toolkit for … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Welfare Taper cut Analysis of the Autumn Budget changes to Universal Credit 6 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Lalitha Try This briefing note looks at the changes to Universal Credit (UC) – the main benefit for low-income families – made by the Chancellor in the Autumn 2021 Budget. The reduction in the taper rate from 63 to 55 percent, and increase in the work allowance by £500 a year, represent a significant, permanent increase in … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Incomes· Prices & consumption· Welfare The big squeeze Assessing the changes to family incomes over the next six months 26 September 2021 by Karl Handscomb This winter will see a major income squeeze – and it will be focused on low-to-middle income households. High inflation, especially higher energy bills, will strain many families’ finances. But these pressures will be compounded for over 4 million families when £20 a week is cut from Universal Credit in October 2021. Looking forward, April … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare· Intergenerational Centre Age-old or new-age? The changing incidence of social security benefits by age 27 August 2021 by Karl Handscomb and Lalitha Try At the start of the Covid-19 crisis, the number of families receiving income from the benefits system increased significantly, with 1.3 million more families receiving Universal Credit within three months – reversing a trend of a steady decline in families receiving benefits. In this briefing note, we examine the shift in the numbers of families … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Welfare In need of support? Lessons from the Covid-19 crisis for our social security system 29 April 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Krishan Shah This briefing note looks at the lessons we have learnt about the UK’s welfare system over the course of the Covid-19 crisis so far, and what those lessons might mean for its future direction. The £111 billion spent so far on supporting incomes during the pandemic should remind us of the importance of welfare systems. … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Covid-19· Welfare Half-measures The Chancellor’s options for Universal Credit in the Budget 19 February 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb The Government has still to decide on whether to continue the £20 per week uplift to Universal Credit (UC) and Working Tax Credit (WTC), due to expire in just 45 days. There are suggestions the Chancellor will opt for a halfway house of keeping the uplift for six months. Compared to the pencilled-in default of … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Household debt· Welfare The debts that divide us Flash findings from a survey of families claiming Universal Credit 7 February 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb The surge in claims for Universal Credit (UC) when the pandemic first hit means that UC caseloads are now about twice as high as they were pre-pandemic, with over half of all single parents now in receipt of UC. About 60 per cent of the current caseload have newly-claimed UC during 2020, and the fraction … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Welfare Safe harbour? Six key welfare policy decisions to navigate this winter 7 October 2020 by Karl Handscomb Despite the new Job Support Scheme, unemployment is set to rise substantially through the autumn and winter, as the Job Retention Scheme ends and the hospitality sector adjusts to new restrictions. This means many more individuals will soon be dependent on the social security system; and as the economy moves into the next phase of … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare Death by £1000 cuts? The history, economics and politics of cutting benefits for millions of households next April 2 October 2020 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb The first Conservative Conference of a new parliament begins. It comes on the back of a surprisingly emphatic election win, but with rumblings beginning about the Chancellor’s plan to take £1,000 away from millions of low-income households in just six months’ time. At that conference it is George Osborne, not Rishi Sunak, that gets up … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Welfare No work, no pay Supporting unemployed people through coronavirus 1 April 2020 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb This recession is a labour market recession, with the public health response to coronavirus swiftly shutting down employment-heavy sectors of the economy. Although the Government has rightly committed billions of pounds to support employers, encourage retention and bail out the self-employed, it is inevitable that unemployment will rise. For those who lose their job or … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Incomes· Welfare Next steps to support family incomes in the face of the coronavirus crisis 25 March 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Laura Gardiner and Karl Handscomb and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has set out an unprecedented package of support for family incomes, including paying 80 per cent of the wages of employees who currently have no work, via its Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Delivering that scheme should be the top priority, given its crucial role in preventing a very steep rise in unemployment and … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Living standards· Firms· Economy and public finances· Welfare Doing what it takes Protecting firms and families from the economic impact of coronavirus 19 March 2020 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Daniel Tomlinson The coronavirus health crisis is now a full-blown economic crisis, and one that may last for much more than a few months. Firms will go bust and unemployment will rise. The majority of this economic damage will be driven not by the direct impact of coronavirus itself, but by the necessary measures – such as social distancing – that we put in place to respond to it. READ MORE
Cities and regions· Welfare The long and winding road The introduction and impact of Universal Credit in Liverpool City Region and the UK 21 January 2020 by Laura Gardiner and David Finch Universal Credit (UC) – the fundamental re-design of Britain’s welfare system involving merging six benefits into one – is an enormous undertaking. This report reviews both the national UC picture and the experience in Liverpool City Region in particular. READ MORE
Social care· Fiscal policy· Welfare· Political parties and elections The shifting shape of social security Charting the changing size and shape of the British welfare system 26 November 2019 by Laura Gardiner Voters face a stark choice in the 2019 election about the social security system they want. This report examines how the provision of social security in Britain has changed; the big trends that current social security policy needs to take account of; and the policy offer from our three main political parties. READ MORE
Welfare· Intergenerational Centre A fraying net The role of a state safety net in supporting young people develop and transition to an independent, healthy future 22 October 2019 by Laura Gardiner and Fahmida Rahman This report reviews the state-provided financial safety net available to young adults, and how it has changed over time. It finds that young people have always relied more on benefits than working-age adults. But this gap has narrowed over recent decades, as governments have increasingly deprioritised welfare support for young people. READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty· Welfare The benefit freeze has ended, but erosion of the social security safety net continues Expected benefit uprating in April 2020 16 October 2019 by Adam Corlett Major working-age benefits will rise in cash terms in April 2020, for the first time in five years. But while the benefit freeze has now ended, its effect of significantly weakening the social security safety net has not. READ MORE
Welfare Back in Credit? Universal Credit after Budget 2018 12 November 2018 by David Finch and Laura Gardiner This briefing note focuses on the implications of recent changes to Universal Credit – in particular the £1,000 increase in work allowances announced in Budget 2018 – for the number of winners and losers from the switch to this new benefit system, for its generosity and for its impact on work incentives. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare How to spend it: Autumn 2018 Budget response 30 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2018 Autumn Budget, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
