Food for thought

The role of food prices in the cost of living crisis

by

The cost of living crisis is often thought of as a cost of energy crisis. That is an understandable, but increasingly inadequate, view. In particular, it understates the growing role of food prices (up by 25 per cent over the past year and a half) in the squeeze on living standards that households – especially … Continued

Cutting the cuts

How the public sector can play its part in ending the UK’s low-investment rut

by

Britain is a low investment nation. Worse, it has now been one for decades. Total investment as a share of GDP has consistently been below the average of other rich countries for decades. This century, the UK has consistently (in all but two years) been in the bottom 10 per cent of countries in the … Continued

We’re going on a growth Hunt

Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context

by

This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment.

New Budget, same problems

Spring Budget preview

by

In our Spring Budget preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget on March 15th, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor in three key areas: cost-of-living support, public sector pay and boosting growth. We find that there is finally some good news for the Chancellor in the short … Continued

The only way is down

Assessing the impact of falls in wholesale energy prices on household and public finances

by

Huge rises in energy prices through much of 2022 sparked a cost of living crisis with recession-level hits to family (as inflation soared) and public finances (as the state partially protected us from bill rises). But there has finally been some good news with wholesale gas prices for 2023-24 down more than 70 per cent … Continued

Help today, squeeze tomorrow

Putting the 2022 Autumn Statement in context

by

This report presents Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the 2022 Autumn Statement. In the face of grim economic and fiscal forecasts, Jeremy Hunt announced energy support today but tougher times tomorrow, with stealth tax rises for the middle and top of the income distribution followed by spending cuts after the next election.

Monetary policy
·
Macroeconomic policy

The art of expectations management

A bleak outlook from the Bank of England as it scales back rate hike expectations

by

The Bank of England has raised rates by 75 basis points today – the eighth successive increase and the largest since 1989 – to 3 per cent, the highest since November 2008. Despite this historic rise, the big news was that the Bank signalled very clearly that market expectations for further rate rises had gone … Continued

Mind the (credibility) gap

Autumn Statement preview

by

In our Autumn-Statement preview slidepack, we present new analysis that explores the economic outlook ahead of the Autumn Statement on 17 November, and the critical decisions that the new Prime Minister and Chancellor must make. With the latest political turmoil triggered by attempts to completely rewrite economic policy, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are under … Continued

Cutting tax cuts

Jeremy Hunt rewrites Government’s economic policy

by

The new Chancellor has rewritten UK economic policy in order to reduce the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the Treasury to deliver spending cuts. He has now reversed 60 per cent of the tax cuts announced less than four weeks ago and committing to scale back support for energy … Continued

What next?

The impact of Trussonomics, tax cuts and market turmoil

by

The last few days have seen a radical reshaping of the Government’s economic policy and a radical reaction from financial markets. Out have gone both Treasury orthodoxy and the legacy of the Johnson premiership, and in are lower taxes, higher borrowing – and higher borrowing costs as spooked markets respond. Will this new strategy boost … Continued

Cover for mini budget analysis, Blowing the Budget

Blowing the budget

Assessing the implications of the September 2022 fiscal statement

by

The Chancellor decided to blow the budget in his first fiscal statement, bringing forward a £45 billion package of tax cuts, the biggest for 50 years. In this briefing note, we show that today’s Government is no longer fiscally conservative nor courting the Red Wall. Instead, debt is on course to rise in each and every year of the forecast period, and the focus has shifted to the South of England, where the beneficiaries of these tax cuts are more likely to be living.

A blank cheque

An analysis of the new cap on energy prices

by

Liz Truss’s first major act as Prime Minister was to set out a huge energy support package to reduce the scale of the living standards’ catastrophe this winter, with the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) as its highlight. The EPG will mean that annual energy prices for the typical household are capped at £2,500 for two … Continued

Slower for longer

The Bank of England tightens monetary policy again and warns that the outlook is bleak

by

The Bank of England today unveiled the biggest rise in interest rates since 1995 along with plans to bring down the stock of Quantitative Easing (QE) by £80 billion over the next year. But the real news in today’s announcements was the extent to which the central bank expects the cost of living crisis to … Continued

As good as it gets?

The forces driving economic stagnation and what they mean for the decade ahead

by

With inflation at levels not seen since the early 1980s, it is clear that the UK is in the midst of a huge hit to real incomes. But the seeds for the devastating impact of the cost of living crisis were sown by a slump in growth that is unprecedented in the post-war period and … Continued

Monetary policy
·
Fiscal policy
·
Macroeconomic policy

Crunch time

Bank of England raises rates again and signals cost of living crisis is set to deliver a £1,200 hit to incomes

by

Today the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised rates at a fourth successive meeting – a first in the 25 years since it was granted independence – to 1 per cent, a level not seen since the financial crisis. The direct impact of this change in rates on households will be small in the … Continued

Briefing note cover - living wage uk

Inflation Nation

Putting Spring Statement 2022 in context

by

This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2022 Spring Statement.  The Chancellor approached this with the highest inflation in 40 years and the worst income squeeze on record lying ahead of us.  Against that backdrop, and with plenty of fiscal ammunition (thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) … Continued

Catch 2022

Spring Statement 2022 preview

by

Ahead of the 2022 Spring Statement, we preview the economic and fiscal outlook and discuss the key decisions that the Chancellor will face. The Chancellor comes into the Spring Statement with good news since the Autumn. The strongest peacetime growth in a century means the economy is around half a per cent larger, and around … Continued

Monetary policy
·
Macroeconomic policy

Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q1 2022

by

2022 is shaping up to be difficult year for policy makers at the Bank of England. While the fastest recovery from a recession since the war is clearly good news, its unbalanced nature at home and abroad has led to a surprising and precipitous rise in inflation. The rise in inflation reflects a mismatch between … Continued

Under pressure

Managing fiscal pressures in the 2020s

by

The 2020s are set to be a decade in which the spending pressures from ageing intensify, healthcare costs continue to rise, and the state needs to invest more to drive a rapid transition to net zero. These trends will play out against the backdrop of a decade of significant economic change that will place further … Continued

The price is right?

The April 2022 energy price rise and the Government’s response

by

The Government has opted for universalism and minimising the hit to the public purse in its response to the energy price rise yesterday. The announced measures take the sting out of Ofgem’s £693 rise in the energy price cap in April with a broad-based package of support. All households will get a £200 discount on … Continued

Social Insecurity

Assessing trends in social security to prepare for the decade of change ahead

by

The UK is facing a decade of unprecedented economic change as we adjust to a post-Covid-19 economy, a new economic context outside the European Union (EU), and the decarbonisation of the economy.  And the social security system has a key role to play in the years ahead: it is part of the policy toolkit for … Continued

More trade from a land down under

The significance of trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand

by

Last week’s announcement of a trade agreement with Australia (along with a soon-to-be-finalised deal with New Zealand) is good news for the Government’s post-Brexit trade strategy. The deal with Australia represents the first substantively new deal, providing evidence of the opportunities the UK now has after leaving the EU. But both deals are small in … Continued

Monetary policy
·
Macroeconomic policy

What goes down must come up

The Bank of England becomes the first major central bank to raise rates but impact will be small with fiscal policy key to Omicron response

by

The Bank of England performed a ‘bait and switch’ by not raising rates in November when many people expected they would, but then raising them today when many thought the rise of Omicron would mean that they would wait to see the impact of the new wave. Many commentators have focussed on the high current … Continued

Loading
No more publications found