Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q4 2020 28 December 2020 by James Smith and Torsten Bell and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Nye Cominetti This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. This edition of the Macro Policy Outlook looks ahead to prospects for 2021. The early months of next year will pick up where 2020 left off, … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Here today, gone tomorrow Putting Spending Review 2020 into context 26 November 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Covid state Analysis of the economy and public finances ahead of the 2020 Spending Review 20 November 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Daniel Tomlinson and James Smith The Chancellor is set to unveil his Spending Review against a radically changed economic and fiscal backdrop to the one he faced in March. Although unemployment is set to peak lower and later than had been expected back in the Summer, the long-term economic scarring from this crisis is set to be significant. The OBR’s … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Tax· Macroeconomic policy Unhealthy finances How to support the economy today and repair the public finances tomorrow 11 November 2020 by George Bangham and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report provides analysis of the dual challenges faced by the government: ensuring that there is sufficient fiscal support through the crisis and recovery, and setting fiscal policy on a sustainable long-term path. Some argue it is unsustainable to provide the massive government support during the crisis, while others see little constraint on government borrowing … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Macroeconomic policy The Bank of England’s options for supporting the economy Lessons from the US 4 November 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates Ahead of this week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, we discuss what recent changes to how US policy makers approach setting interest rates might tell us about what additional support the Bank of England could provide in the face of a second national lockdown. The most important change was the introduction of a ‘flexible average inflation … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Economy and public finances The Winter (Economy Plan) is coming Chancellor ramps economic support back up, but avoidable design flaws will limit its success in stemming the Autumn rise in unemployment 25 September 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson Economic policy yesterday caught back up with the ramping back up of social distancing restrictions by the Prime Minister earlier in the week. The Chancellor rightly announced new measures rather than sticking to plans to phase out help for workers and firms. His most significant policy was the Job Support Scheme (JSS), an extended, … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q3 2020 21 September 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. While the OBR forecast that the unemployment rate will rise to match its 1980s peak of 11.9 per cent, the Bank of England is projecting a rise … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Act now, or pay later The OBR’s Fiscal Sustainability Report makes clear the implications of a crisis-driven rise in unemployment for the public finances 14 July 2020 by James Smith and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie The OBR’s latest Fiscal Sustainability Report confirms its view that the current crisis could lead to the largest economic contraction in 300 years precipitating a return of unemployment levels not since the 1980s. Given the huge uncertainty, the OBR has produced three scenarios with different assumption about a timetable for finding a vaccine or other … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Monetary policy Easing does it Economic policy beyond the lockdown 7 July 2020 by Laura Gardiner and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith Having weathered the first wave of the coronavirus economic storm, the task now facing the country is how to reopen, revive, and rebuild our economy while the virus remains with us. The Government needs to act as quickly, boldly, and creatively in the recovery phase of the outbreak as it did in the initial rescue … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2020 28 May 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates This is the second Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we bring together the insights from new research into the impact of coronavirus on the economy with the latest data on its effects, in order to draw out the lessons for policy makers. There are three key takeaways. … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Optimism in a time of coronavirus While undoubtedly gloomy, today’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Reports from the Bank of England envisage little lasting damage to the economy or financial system 7 May 2020 by Jack Leslie and James Smith Today the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee provided its first major assessment of the impact of coronavirus on the economy. The MPC envisage growth this year to be the weakest in over 300 years, with a fall of 25 per cent expected in the second quarter, and a fall of 14 per cent for … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Labour market· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Doing more of what it takes Next steps in the economic response to coronavirus 16 April 2020 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has responded to coronavirus by shutting down large parts of the UK economy, and socialising the costs of doing so through a package of fiscal support to firms and individuals unprecedented in size and scope. Given uncertainty about how long public health restrictions will need to be in place, economic policy makers need to be prepared to manage what could … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Helicopters on standby? With rates at all-time lows, the Bank of England needs a different playbook for this crisis 26 March 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates With a big recession on the way, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee would normally be unveiling measures to support the economy today, and this piece would be discussing what they’ve done. But we are not in normal times. Instead, the Bank of England does not have the option of cutting rates in the … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events A Budget action plan The economic response to the coronavirus 8 March 2020 by Tony Yates and Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Richard Hughes and James Smith Although secondary to addressing the health consequences, it is crucial that policy makers act swiftly to prevent the outbreak of coronavirus becoming an economic crisis, too. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2020 20 February 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is the first of a new series of Macro Policy Outlooks (MPOs) from the Resolution Foundation’s Macroeconomic Policy Unit, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition we explore the outlook ahead of the Budget due on 11 March. The economy has slowed significantly in recent quarters, with 2019 the second-weakest post-war … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economy and public finances· Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy The beginning of the end… …but not the end of the beginning Governor Carney’s valedictory speech discusses the future of the UK’s monetary policy remit – but this is just the start of an important debate 10 January 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates The beginning of the end… After several false starts, the appointment of his successor (Andrew Bailey) means Mark Carney finally has a leaving date (15 March). He can now concentrate on the serious business of organising his leaving parties securing his legacy from his longer-than-expected time as Bank of England Governor. That all started yesterday … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy· Political parties and elections Playing by their own rules? We analyse whether the policy platforms announced by the main parties are consistent with their own fiscal rules 28 November 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith Fiscal rules are crucial for the government’s stewardship of the public finances and framing its economic priorities. So it is welcome that the main parties have prioritised setting out the rules they would follow, with their announcements following to different degrees the approach recommended by earlier Resolution Foundation work. But fiscal rules are only useful … Continued READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Totally (net) worth it The next generation of UK fiscal rules 29 October 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith The UK needs new fiscal rules which put improving net worth at the centre, enable the government to borrow to invest, are robust to a wide range of scenarios, and allow fiscal policy to play a lead role in stabilising the economy. READ MORE
Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Dealing with ‘no deal’ The economic policy response to a ‘no deal’ Brexit 19 September 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report provides a framework for understanding what role macroeconomic policy can play in alleviating the economic impact of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. READ MORE
Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Recession ready? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework 9 September 2019 by James Smith and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Fahmida Rahman This report is the launch paper for the Resolution Foundation’s Macroeconomic Policy Unit. It provides the most comprehensive assessment of the UK’s macroeconomic policy framework since the financial crisis, focusing on the ability of the framework to provide effective support to the economy in the face of the next recession. This work is important, given … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Quantitative (displ)easing? Does QE work and how should it be used next time? 7 September 2019 by Jack Leslie and Fahmida Rahman and James Smith and Joe Gagnon After the financial crisis, central banks purchased massive amounts of long-term bonds to stimulate economies. These purchases have come to be known as quantitative easing (QE) and have been hugely controversial – barely a third (37 per cent) of UK Members of Parliament, when polled, support its use in future. In theory, QE stimulates the … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy A problem shared? What can we learn from past recessions about the impact of the next across the income distribution? 5 August 2019 by James Smith and Cara Pacitti While the received wisdom from the 1980s and 1990s recessions was that those at the bottom of the income distribution suffer most during severe downturns. But this was less obvious in the aftermath of the financial crisis. So this briefing note looks at what lessons we can learn from that episode about the distributional impact … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Failing to plan = planning to fail The risk of recessions and the importance of macroeconomic policy in limiting the damage they cause 14 July 2019 by James Smith There is a relatively high risk that the UK will experience a recession in the next few years, bringing with it significant and lasting damage. Macroeconomic policy will once again need to play its part in mitigating this damage. But the legacy of the financial crisis looks likely to limit its power, making it all the more important to open up the debate about what is possible. READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances Counting the cost: UK living standards since the 2016 referendum 11 February 2019 by James Smith Household incomes are around £1,500 year lower today than they were expected to be before the Brexit referendum – with the UK having experienced the sharpest income growth slowdown of any economy for which the OECD publish data. This note focuses on the UK’s recent economic performance, going beyond the usual focus on GDP to look at the impact on household living standards across the UK. READ MORE
