Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances What Philip Hammond will say today: the deficit is dead, long live the debt 12 March 2018 by Torsten Bell Philip Hammond is going to give a very short speech at the Spring Statement today. There will be none of the tax and spending announcements we are used to when Chancellors rise to the Despatch Box. But short and largely announcement free as it will be, tomorrow’s speech will nonetheless represent something very significant for … Continued READ MORE
Work Are Sainsbury’s pay proposals a sign of things to come in low-paying sectors? 7 March 2018 by Conor D’Arcy Sainsbury’s has announced proposals to boost its base pay, from £8 per hour to £9.20. This, of course, is important news for the 130,000 people who work there, even if it won’t be welcomed by every one of them, as explored below. But the action Sainsbury’s has taken – and the ways it has outlined … Continued READ MORE
Work· Social security· Wealth· Generations Baby boomers are going to have to pay more tax on their wealth to fund health and social care 5 March 2018 by David Willetts In the past decade a new issue has entered British politics – fairness between the generations. It straddles the conventional political divide. The Prime Minister has spoken of “a growing divide between a more prosperous older generation and a struggling younger generation”. And the leader of the Labour Party has argued that future generations should … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Public finances Should the Office for Budget Responsibility also forecast inequality? 2 March 2018 by Adam Corlett The strengths and weaknesses of economic forecasting are under scrutiny, perhaps like never before. How might GDP perform under different Brexit policies compared to a world with no Brexit? Is unemployment now likely to rise or fall? What will public borrowing in 2022 be? Whatever your politics, such modelling and forecasting is indispensable – so … Continued READ MORE
Work The UK’s tight labour market and zero hours contracts 21 February 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson After five years of rapid increases, the number of people working on a zero hours contract has flat-lined in the UK over the past year. A tighter labour market may not yet be delivering increases in real pay, but it is slowly reshaping the type of work that we do for the better. It’s also … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations “Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone” – UK generational trends in an international context 19 February 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Fahmida Rahman Joni Mitchell’s lyrics may refer to her first trip to Hawaii, but they could just as easily apply to UK trends in generational living standards that the Resolution Foundation’s Intergenerational Commission has uncovered. That’s particularly so in light of new analysis comparing these trends internationally. While there are huge living standards differences between high-income countries, … Continued READ MORE
Work When it comes to pay ratios, it’s time to choose meaningful medians not meaningless means 14 February 2018 by Conor D’Arcy and Stephen Clarke Back in the dog days of last summer, the Government announced a package of reforms to corporate governance. Among those reforms was the welcome requirement for “listed companies… to publish pay ratios between chief executives and their average UK worker”. On the back of gender pay gap reporting and the commitment to transparency expressed in … Continued READ MORE
Wealth· Generations How to solve the UK’s growing wealth gaps 8 February 2018 by Torsten Bell This year, average wages are set to be flat. British households, meanwhile, are in the middle of a projected four-year income stagnation. And our productivity has barely risen since the 2008 financial crisis. Pay, incomes, productivity – that all are flatlining is the defining feature of our economics and our politics today. There’s a reason … Continued READ MORE
Work Deeds not words – what we needed from the government’s response to the Taylor Review today 7 February 2018 by Torsten Bell Yesterday, Britain celebrated the success of the ‘deeds not words’ campaign that won women the vote. Today, we have something of the opposite in the government’s response to last summer’s Taylor Review of Modern Working Practices. It’s not nothing, but those hoping for a bold new dawn in the rules that govern Britain’s labour market … Continued READ MORE
Social security· Tax· Generations To maintain our welfare state we need to rethink how we pay for it 5 February 2018 by Torsten Bell Social democracy gave 20th Century Britain the welfare state. But in the 21st Century it’s wandered off for a long post-crisis snooze, just at the time when big challenges to that welfare state are looming into view. It’s time it woke up because, for a new generation of social democrats, there is work to do. … Continued READ MORE
Wealth Seven key takeaways on the level, profile and distribution of Britain’s £12.8 trillion of wealth 1 February 2018 by Conor D’Arcy We get monthly updates on pay and authoritative data on household incomes every year. But we have to wait two years for a detailed breakdown of what’s happening to wealth across Britain. Here are seven key takeaways from the latest data published today and what it tells us about changes in the level, profile and … Continued READ MORE
Work The latest data on Apprenticeship starts offers cause for hope and concern 25 January 2018 by Kathleen Henehan This morning the Department for Education published figures outlining the number and type of apprenticeships that were commenced during the first quarter (August to October) of the 2017-18 academic year – the second quarter since the apprenticeship levy came into place last Spring. Inevitably, much of the focus today will be on numbers: how the … Continued READ MORE
Work Reading the runes on Britain’s labour market 24 January 2018 by Stephen Clarke The UK labour market has shifted into different gears over the last decade. The first – and most dramatic – move happened early in 2009 when real pay began to fall for the first time in decades. Early in 2012 the jobs market bottomed out and five years of nearly uninterrupted employment growth began. 2015 … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Incomes Hey big spender! 18 January 2018 by Stephen Clarke Todays’ annual Family Spending release contains the usual treasure trove of information on what UK households spent their money on last year. Households spent a lot. Average weekly spending rose (after adjusting for inflation) by 4 per cent from £533 to £554 between 2015-16 and 2016-17 – the sharpest increase for well over a decade … Continued READ MORE
Social security Five big calls on Universal Credit for the new Work and Pensions Secretary 11 January 2018 by David Finch A new year brings with it a new Work and Pensions Secretary, with Esther McVey the fourth incumbent since Iain Duncan Smith stepped down in January 2016. For a department in the midst of rolling-out Universal Credit (UC), a radical reform of social security, change at the top brings both opportunity and risk. UC delivery … Continued READ MORE
Housing Time for some housing honesty 2 January 2018 by Matthew Whittaker The return to work after Christmas is never easy. Unless you’re an estate agent: they love January. Following the pre-Christmas lull, families rush back into wanting to buy and sell their houses (helped in part by the traditional post-festivity spike in family breakdown). But for an increasing number of us, house hunting is becoming little … Continued READ MORE
Work 2018 risks being a standstill year on pay 27 December 2017 by Torsten Bell 2018 looks set to be a standstill year. On the biggest political issue of our time we will spend all 365 days of it leaving, but not out, of the EU. It also looks set to be a standstill year for our economy as most people experience it – on pay and employment we may … Continued READ MORE
Work Unwrapping the agency worker pay penalty 21 December 2017 by Lindsay Judge Christmas is coming – and many of the presents we’re all busy buying are being picked and packed in warehouses, delivered by drivers, or sold to us in shops by staff who are not directly employed, but who work through an agency instead. So how has this part of the workforce fared over the course … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Generations Auto-enrolment has had a great beginning. But will it have a happy ending? 18 December 2017 by David Finch We hear a lot about good policy plans gone wrong (Universal Credit springs to mind) for obvious reasons. But we ought to listen (and learn) from successes too. Auto-enrolment into workplace pension savings is the obvious candidate for this cheery policy tale, though the story has only just begun. Over nine million have signed up … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth ‘The rise of the robots’ and ‘productivity pessimism’ can’t both be right 14 December 2017 by Adam Corlett Talk of looming automation, AI and robots is pervasive in public policy chat – including in the government’s new industrial strategy. Almost as common are projections that the weak growth of the past decade is here to stay – including in the latest official economic outlook. Sometimes these assumptions are even mentioned in the same … Continued READ MORE
Work Icebreakers, overtime and the squeezed middle 12 December 2017 by Torsten Bell One of the wonders of life is that there are a lot of things to talk about. But one of its big let downs is that when people regularly spend time together they often spend it talking about the same old things; the weather, what mutual acquaintances have been up to, the rest. But every … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Savings & debt· Demographics What could the latest life expectancy projections mean for the State Pension Age? 5 December 2017 by David Finch At the end of last week, the ONS published the latest future projections showing its best estimate of how long we can expect to live. We don’t automatically associate our living standards with factors like health or how many years of life we may have. But just like income, life expectancy is an important indicator … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Britain’s skills record has hindered, not helped, our productivity drive. That needs to change 30 November 2017 by Kathleen Henehan Over the last week, we’ve heard a lot about the need to boost Britain’s productivity and how education and training can support that drive. First we had welcome new funding commitments in the Budget, then a strong skills focus in the Industrial Strategy White Paper and today we have a Skills Summit. Throughout, the Government … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The Chancellor has coped with a huge economic downgrade, but the outlook is grim for families across Britain 23 November 2017 by Torsten Bell For his first Autumn Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility has given Philip Hammond a truly catastrophic set of economic forecasts. After a decade of unrealised productivity forecasts, the OBR has now delivered the mother of all downgrades; all but halving its view of the UK’s capacity to grow. As a result it now expects … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Work· Public finances The Autumn Budget 2017 brings worse than hoped for news for the low paid 23 November 2017 by Conor D’Arcy or many people, the big news out of November’s Budget – a massive downgrade in the outlook for productivity growth – will sound a bit abstract. The productivity downgrade has made the Chancellor’s task of balancing the books harder. But its impact on pay – with average annual earnings lowered by £1,000 – mean it’s even … Continued READ MORE
