Work Low paid Britain is set for a parliament of pay rises – let’s make them a success 27 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson Budgets are always full of surprises and last year’s Summer Budget contained one of the biggest ever: the announcement of a National Living Wage (NLW). The NLW is the new compulsory wage floor for workers aged 25 and over, it will be introduced at £7.20 an hour this April and is projected to reach £9 … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Housing· Political parties and elections One Nation or two? 21 March 2016 by Torsten Bell Iain Duncan Smith says the government’s claim to be a One Nation government is at risk and that it is “in danger of drifting in a direction that divides society rather than unites it”. Government spokespeople, including the Climate Change Secretary, Amber Rudd, have been clear they think he is wrong – indeed the Prime … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth Own a LISA? First impressions of the Lifetime ISA 18 March 2016 by Adam Corlett In the build-up to the Budget, the Chancellor backed away from significant changes to the pension tax system for now, despite the strong case for some reform. This was a relief for some and a disappointment for others. But given that he had aimed to save money, it’s a surprise that he’s nonetheless introduced a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Is the Chancellor planning a £32bn pre-election take-away? I wouldn’t bet on it 17 March 2016 by Torsten Bell If you’re the kind of person that finds money down the back of your sofa, the chances are you’re the kind of person that also loses it down there in the first place. That’s the lesson the Chancellor was taught by his Budget yesterday. At the centre of all the Commons rhetoric, stats and pun-strewn … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Budget response: the sofa can go from being a cashpoint to a pickpocket overnight 16 March 2016 by Torsten Bell TREASURY CHOOSES TO ACCEPT £38bn EXTRA BORROWING IN FACE OF ECONOMIC HEADWINDS OBR gives the Chancellor a £55bn fiscal black hole, double the £27bn windfall from the Autumn Statement The weaker outlook for productivity and pay has led the OBR to give George Osborne a £55bn fiscal hole, reversing twice over the £27bn fiscal windfall … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt Help to Save: an idea whose time has come (again) 14 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson ‘Support for savers’ was meant to be one of the key Budget themes. Until recently it seemed likely that the Chancellor would be announcing a radical shake-up of pension saving. But in the face of fierce of opposition from industry, the media and many backbench MPs, the Treasury has now ruled out any changes to … Continued READ MORE
Work Zero-hours contracts: casual contracts are becoming a permanent feature of the UK economy 9 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson There is much to celebrate about the UK’s labour market performance. The employment rate is at a record high of 74.1% and every region of the UK has seen employment growth over the last two years. After a long squeeze, wages are now growing faster than prices (thanks in large part to ultra-low inflation). The … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Savings & debt· Tax Nice try, but no cigar: the Chancellor and pension tax relief 5 March 2016 by Torsten Bell We’ve known for some time that George Osborne wants to make radical changes to how the UK’s tax system encourages people to save for their pension. Yet we’ve now learnt that his preferred change is not going to happen. Here’s why he was right to agitate for reform (even if not for the particular change he … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations Life is unfair for young people – but there are ways we can fix that 1 March 2016 by David Willetts After seven years, living standards have finally returned to levels last seen before the financial crisis hit in 2008. But the effects of the downturn and the gains from recovery have not been evenly shared. While the gap between rich and poor has fallen slightly, we’ve witnessed the deepening of a new divergence, between young … Continued READ MORE
Work The National Living Wage will bring Britain’s need for stronger productivity growth into sharp focus 24 February 2016 by Conor D’Arcy After months of debate, analysis and more than a little terminological confusion, the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) is now just five weeks away. While this substantial lifting of the wage floor for the over-24s will come as a welcome boost for the 4.5 million low paid workers set to benefit initially (rising … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Tax Scottish Labour has a tax policy – let the debate commence 5 February 2016 by Torsten Bell Scottish Labour has a tax policy – specifically a tax raising policy. That’s a big change, whether you support it or not. In the decade and a half since devolution it is the first time the party will go into a Scottish Parliamentary election with proposals to change income tax. The proposal is to raise … Continued READ MORE
Health and disability· Incomes· Work One billion hours: what’s happening to the working week? 3 February 2016 by Laura Gardiner Towards the end of 2015 the jobs market passed an important-sounding milestone – we now work more than one billion hours each week. This has been wholly driven by strong employment growth because at the individual level average weekly hours have actually fallen slightly over the past year, reversing the upward trend of the previous … Continued READ MORE
Work· Social security The shifting shape of worklessness creates new challenges 1 February 2016 by David Finch At the heart of the Welfare Reform and Work Bill – now experiencing a somewhat bumpier than expected ride through the House of Lords – sits a commitment to further reduce worklessness and at the same time move closer to full employment. Substantial progress is already being made on both – the proportion of children … Continued READ MORE
Growth· Macroeconomic policy Preparing for the next crisis – it’s best to ask questions now so we can shoot later 28 January 2016 by Torsten Bell In the decade leading up to the financial crisis not one speech by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown mentioned quantitative easing. Between boom, bust, and prudence, unconventional monetary policy did not get a look in. The then Governor of the Bank of England managed one mention, albeit in the context of Japan … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Scotland The living standards challenge facing the next Scottish government 20 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy The living standards challenge facing the next Scottish government This morning’s labour market statistics marked a milestone for Scotland: its employment rate has overtaken its pre-recession level, rising to 74.9 per cent. This is a welcome landmark in the recovery. But coming as it does, 15 months after England closed its ‘jobs gap’, also highlights … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Work Completing the jobs recovery is the key to keeping Scotland ahead on pay 20 January 2016 by Torsten Bell Right across Britain the last decade has been tough for family budgets. But for everyone apart from the very richest Scotland has been a relatively good place to be. At least when it comes to pay. In 2004 typical hourly pay in Scotland was 7.7 per cent lower than in England. This was the longstanding … Continued READ MORE
Work The path to full employment requires a greater focus on inactivity 12 January 2016 by Laura Gardiner If you ask most people where jobs growth comes from they will probably point to reductions in unemployment, that is, people looking for and available to work. Somewhat surprisingly, however, during normal times most new entrants come from ‘economic inactivity’, a group that reports being unavailable for or not actively seeking work for a variety … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The billions that the spending review forgot 10 January 2016 by Adam Corlett New Year’s Eve is an exciting day. For, each year, it is the day that the government – without any fanfare – publishes new stats on the cost of tax expenditures. Presumably it is only coincidentally a time of year when scrutiny and column inches are likely to be limited. This is a shame, because … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Cities and regions Five charts that London’s mayoral candidates need to see on living standards 7 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy It’s now less than four months to go till London’s mayoral elections. Given how important living standards issues like pay, jobs and housing are to Londoners, coming up with effective policies to tackle these challenges could make the difference in what’s set to be a tight race. Here are five charts that should be front … Continued READ MORE
Work New year, new challenges for Britain’s cities when it comes to low pay 4 January 2016 by Torsten Bell In three months’ time a decent chunk of working Britain will get a pay rise when the National Living Wage is introduced at the start of April. This higher minimum wage for the over-24s is a good thing given our far too high levels of low pay. It is also one of the biggest changes … Continued READ MORE
Work· Scotland New year, new wage: implementing the National Living Wage in Scotland 4 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy The first week back at work after the new year is no one’s favourite, with the brighter, better spring weather still a long way off. But this year, thousands of low-paid workers across Scotland have even more cause to be impatient for the end of winter. From April, thanks to the National Living Wage (NLW) … Continued READ MORE
Incomes Building on Britain’s living standards recovery next year will require decisive action by policy makers 31 December 2015 by Torsten Bell British policy makers might well have had a contented Christmas break. At least by recent standards. In 2015 employment reached record highs while real earnings growth returned after a six-year absence. Crucially those on the lowest earnings saw the biggest rises at over three per cent. But policy makers from the Treasury to the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Tax Tax expenditures deserve far more scrutiny 30 December 2015 by Adam Corlett Last month, the UK government presented its Spending Review, setting out departmental budgets for the next four years. There were protections for some departments and large cuts (though smaller than expected) for others. Coming after years of previous cuts, many departmental budgets by 2019 will be only half what they were in 2009. Opinions will … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth Why defusing the debt bomb means dealing with distributions 26 December 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Following the near-collapse of the global financial system back in 2008, it appeared only a matter of time before the UK’s household debt time bomb went boom. In aggregate, households owed just shy of 1.6 times their total income, up from a ratio of just over 1 at the start of the century. That there … Continued READ MORE
Housing Dealing with the housing aspiration gap 19 December 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Britain’s reputation as a nation of home-owners is under threat. While it’s true that just under two-thirds (65 per cent) of us own our own place, the home-ownership rate has fallen from 73 per cent since 2007. This downward trend has occurred despite the proportion owning their home outright continuing to rise gently in recent … Continued READ MORE
