Incomes· Trade Are we set for a Brexit-induced cost of living crisis? 28 June 2016 by Matthew Whittaker What impact will Brexit have on living standards? It is of course far too early to make any sensible assessment about the longer-term picture, particularly as this will depend on the details of the UK’s new relationship with Europe. But clearly the world has already changed. The business and consumer uncertainty generated by last week’s … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Housing Prioritising the housing headwind in the debate on living standards 28 June 2016 by Lindsay Judge Much has been made in recent days of the role that living standards may have played in the Brexit vote. But while we often hear about pay and jobs, the crucial question of housing has been largely absent from the discussion. A new Resolution Foundation report published today shows why housing costs need to be … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Trade The referendum, living standards and inequality 24 June 2016 by Torsten Bell Today’s result is what earthquakes in politics look like. It will have big long term impacts on the future living standards of the British people – impacts on employment, pay and prices that will matter much more to people than today’s falls in the value of Sterling or the stock market, bad though those are. … Continued READ MORE
Work· Scotland Scotland continues to be the odd man out in Britain’s post-crisis jobs recovery 15 June 2016 by Conor D’Arcy Scotland’s been something of the odd-man-out lately. Missing out on Euro 2016 was bad enough but today’s latest labour market figures confirm that Scotland’s jobs market continues to under-perform compared to the rest of the UK. The turnaround has been rapid. As recently as October 2015, the Scottish employment rate was 74.8 per cent – … Continued READ MORE
Housing High housing costs are a particular strain on Britain’s growing army of private renters 16 May 2016 by Lindsay Judge Much of the housing debate focuses on the struggle to get on the housing ladder. It’s easy to see why. Imagine you are a middle income family wanting to buy an average priced home. Twenty years ago, if you budgeted carefully and put aside five per cent of your income each year for a deposit … Continued READ MORE
Work Waging war on non-compliance 11 May 2016 by Laura Gardiner Big policy wins – those that shift the argument among politicos and have a real impact on people’s lives – are few and far between. Ask commentators to name the biggest success in recent decades and the National Minimum Wage (NMW) would be a top choice. So much so that last summer the Conservative chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Work As a nation we have spectacularly failed to provide clear career routes for non-graduates 11 May 2016 by David Willetts and Alan Milburn In the old days – when we were both young – the route from childhood into work was simple. A Levels followed by university for a small elite and an apprenticeship with a local employer for the rest. Today, the route through university to work is chosen by the majority of young women and 40 … Continued READ MORE
Generations We must live up to our obligation to generations coming after us 9 May 2016 by David Willetts Ask people about what really worries them about the future and one answer stands out above all – that our children and grandchildren will not have the same kind of opportunities in life that we have enjoyed. The wheels of modern capitalism may keep turning so there are new technologies and new medical treatments. But … Continued READ MORE
Social security Stick or Twist – decision time for Stephen Crabb on Universal Credit 4 May 2016 by David Finch The new Work and Pensions Secretary has been dealt a risky hand. Universal Credit (UC), the ambitious combining of six working age benefits into one, reaches a critical phase this month as the roll-out of a fully working system finally begins in areas including Newcastle and Bath. Universal Credit is a huge deal. By 2020 … Continued READ MORE
Social security Could housing be the living standards issue of this parliament? 26 April 2016 by Lindsay Judge Britain’s unprecedented pay squeeze – and the resulting impact on living standards – was one of the main talking points of the last parliament. But with real wages rising again and employment at a record high, has concern over living standards abated? Not if you factor in housing. Indeed, barely a day goes by without … Continued READ MORE
Work Has our jobs recovery reached a plateau? 20 April 2016 by Laura Gardiner Despite the noise, the news in today’s labour market data is not the slight increase in unemployment. This hasn’t stopped people linking the unemployment increase to Brexit fears, or suggesting that it’s actually a good thing. No, in fact the real story – which for obvious reasons the headline writers failed to get excited about … Continued READ MORE
Tax A history of taxing the rich – what might the future hold? 18 April 2016 by Torsten Bell Thanks to Panama and its papers, the rich and the tax they do (or don’t) pay is back at the top of the news agenda. Even before details of thousands of off-shore accounts/companies/investments emerged, the issue of what tax the rich should pay had recently returned to the centre of political debate for the first … Continued READ MORE
Social security The roll out of Universal Credit will lead to a postcode lottery of winners and losers 12 April 2016 by David Finch On welfare reform, something is moving in the undergrowth. It’s called Universal Credit. The new benefit will amount to £53 billion by 2020-21, with almost half of families with children entitled to it. Only the State Pension will be bigger. Implementing this mammoth policy is the key task facing the new Secretary of State for … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Social security· Tax The new financial year: No fireworks yet but is pain brewing for low-to-middle income households? 6 April 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Prior to the government’s tax credit U-turn in last year’s Autumn Statement, 6 April 2016 was set to be a red letter day – representing the point at which more than 3 million tax credit recipient families would face the reality of reductions in their annual awards of £1,300 on average. Having shelved the cuts … Continued READ MORE
Work Low paid Britain is set for a parliament of pay rises – let’s make them a success 27 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson Budgets are always full of surprises and last year’s Summer Budget contained one of the biggest ever: the announcement of a National Living Wage (NLW). The NLW is the new compulsory wage floor for workers aged 25 and over, it will be introduced at £7.20 an hour this April and is projected to reach £9 … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Housing· Political parties and elections One Nation or two? 21 March 2016 by Torsten Bell Iain Duncan Smith says the government’s claim to be a One Nation government is at risk and that it is “in danger of drifting in a direction that divides society rather than unites it”. Government spokespeople, including the Climate Change Secretary, Amber Rudd, have been clear they think he is wrong – indeed the Prime … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth Own a LISA? First impressions of the Lifetime ISA 18 March 2016 by Adam Corlett In the build-up to the Budget, the Chancellor backed away from significant changes to the pension tax system for now, despite the strong case for some reform. This was a relief for some and a disappointment for others. But given that he had aimed to save money, it’s a surprise that he’s nonetheless introduced a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Is the Chancellor planning a £32bn pre-election take-away? I wouldn’t bet on it 17 March 2016 by Torsten Bell If you’re the kind of person that finds money down the back of your sofa, the chances are you’re the kind of person that also loses it down there in the first place. That’s the lesson the Chancellor was taught by his Budget yesterday. At the centre of all the Commons rhetoric, stats and pun-strewn … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Budget response: the sofa can go from being a cashpoint to a pickpocket overnight 16 March 2016 by Torsten Bell TREASURY CHOOSES TO ACCEPT £38bn EXTRA BORROWING IN FACE OF ECONOMIC HEADWINDS OBR gives the Chancellor a £55bn fiscal black hole, double the £27bn windfall from the Autumn Statement The weaker outlook for productivity and pay has led the OBR to give George Osborne a £55bn fiscal hole, reversing twice over the £27bn fiscal windfall … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt Help to Save: an idea whose time has come (again) 14 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson ‘Support for savers’ was meant to be one of the key Budget themes. Until recently it seemed likely that the Chancellor would be announcing a radical shake-up of pension saving. But in the face of fierce of opposition from industry, the media and many backbench MPs, the Treasury has now ruled out any changes to … Continued READ MORE
Work Zero-hours contracts: casual contracts are becoming a permanent feature of the UK economy 9 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson There is much to celebrate about the UK’s labour market performance. The employment rate is at a record high of 74.1% and every region of the UK has seen employment growth over the last two years. After a long squeeze, wages are now growing faster than prices (thanks in large part to ultra-low inflation). The … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Savings & debt· Tax Nice try, but no cigar: the Chancellor and pension tax relief 5 March 2016 by Torsten Bell We’ve known for some time that George Osborne wants to make radical changes to how the UK’s tax system encourages people to save for their pension. Yet we’ve now learnt that his preferred change is not going to happen. Here’s why he was right to agitate for reform (even if not for the particular change he … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations Life is unfair for young people – but there are ways we can fix that 1 March 2016 by David Willetts After seven years, living standards have finally returned to levels last seen before the financial crisis hit in 2008. But the effects of the downturn and the gains from recovery have not been evenly shared. While the gap between rich and poor has fallen slightly, we’ve witnessed the deepening of a new divergence, between young … Continued READ MORE
Work The National Living Wage will bring Britain’s need for stronger productivity growth into sharp focus 24 February 2016 by Conor D’Arcy After months of debate, analysis and more than a little terminological confusion, the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) is now just five weeks away. While this substantial lifting of the wage floor for the over-24s will come as a welcome boost for the 4.5 million low paid workers set to benefit initially (rising … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Tax Scottish Labour has a tax policy – let the debate commence 5 February 2016 by Torsten Bell Scottish Labour has a tax policy – specifically a tax raising policy. That’s a big change, whether you support it or not. In the decade and a half since devolution it is the first time the party will go into a Scottish Parliamentary election with proposals to change income tax. The proposal is to raise … Continued READ MORE
