Macroeconomic policy The Bank has acted, but the real drama is yet to come 4 August 2016 by Matthew Whittaker While the time since the UK voted to leave the EU can still be measured in weeks rather than months, evidence is starting to come in on the extent to which that decision is impacting on the economy. It will be a while longer before we get hard data on output, but the picture painted … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Cities and regions Home ownership struggle reaches Coronation Street 2 August 2016 by Stephen Clarke Handwringing about the housing crisis has become a national pastime. Not surprising perhaps, with home ownership becoming an increasingly unrealistic dream for many younger families. This was once a London-centric issue, but there is growing evidence to suggest the crisis is spreading across the rest of the country – with Manchester and other big northern … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Bank will bring out its sledgehammer this week – but it needs to explain which nut it’s trying to crack 2 August 2016 by Torsten Bell On Thursday the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is going to act for the first time since July 2012. Expect general excitement as one part of the British state gets round to doing something big in the wake of the Brexit vote. But this excitement should be matched by realism about what the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Trade Five charts that tell the story so far of the post-referendum economy 20 July 2016 by Matthew Whittaker and David Finch Perhaps the only certainty in relation to the UK at the moment is that things look very uncertain. Longer-term, much will depend on just what Brexit ends up meaning. Shorter-term, most economists expect some form of demand-led slowdown – with general business and consumer uncertainty pulling back on investment and spending and sharp falls in … Continued READ MORE
Work “Ordinary, working people” and the rise of self-employment 20 July 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson Theresa May undoubtedly has a lot to focus on, but she was clear last week that her government will be “completely, absolutely, unequivocally – at the service of ordinary, working people”. Which raises the question: who are these people? We had a helpful reminder from the ONS last week that a typical working person is … Continued READ MORE
Housing Could a Brexit-induced house price fall benefit those who are struggling with housing costs? 19 July 2016 by Lindsay Judge In a world full of gloomy post-referendum prognostics is there anything for low to middle income households to be cheerful about? In recent research we have shown that rising housing costs have dragged down living standards over the last two decades. Could a Brexit-induced drop in house prices be the silver lining for these hard-pressed … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Macroeconomic policy Responsibility for avoiding a post-Brexit downturn rests as much with our politicians as our economists 18 July 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Despite boasting an impressive track record for inaction in recent years, the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave rates on hold last week still surprised many. Expectations had built following Mark Carney’s statement on 30 June that post-Brexit “deterioration” in the economic outlook meant that “some monetary policy easing [would] be required over the Summer”. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations Renewing the intergenerational contract could be as important to future generations as a successful EU exit 18 July 2016 by David Willetts We have become very sensitive to inequities of class or race or gender. But we have been ignoring a growing new problem – unfairness between the generations. When I wrote The Pinch six years ago it was the first book looking at Britain from the point of view of the different generations. Since then it … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Trade Why did we vote to leave? What an analysis of place can tell us about Brexit 15 July 2016 by Stephen Clarke So much has happened since the UK voted to leave the EU that it is hard to believe that the result was announced just three weeks ago. Already the pop analysis of what influenced the referendum outcome is becoming received wisdom, with politicians and others competing to see who can best deal with the sources … Continued READ MORE
Work No jobs-killer as employers take a ‘suck it and see’ approach to the National Living Wage 11 July 2016 by Conor D’Arcy With all the economic and political tumult of the past couple of weeks, the launch of the National Living Wage (NLW) already feels a long time ago. But it’s only been three months since the government’s flagship labour market policy came into force. As with Brexit, we’ll need to wait before judging the full impact … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations· Political parties and elections Repairing the painful fractures between generations will be a crucial task for the new Prime Minister 3 July 2016 by David Willetts and Torsten Bell There’s a lot to do, and no-one around to do it. That’s the conclusion from Britain’s first week as a country on a course for Brexit. Most debate, and financial market turmoil, is focused on the huge task of redefining Britain’s role in the world. Whether we like it or not, and whether our leaders … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Trade Are we set for a Brexit-induced cost of living crisis? 28 June 2016 by Matthew Whittaker What impact will Brexit have on living standards? It is of course far too early to make any sensible assessment about the longer-term picture, particularly as this will depend on the details of the UK’s new relationship with Europe. But clearly the world has already changed. The business and consumer uncertainty generated by last week’s … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Housing Prioritising the housing headwind in the debate on living standards 28 June 2016 by Lindsay Judge Much has been made in recent days of the role that living standards may have played in the Brexit vote. But while we often hear about pay and jobs, the crucial question of housing has been largely absent from the discussion. A new Resolution Foundation report published today shows why housing costs need to be … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Trade The referendum, living standards and inequality 24 June 2016 by Torsten Bell Today’s result is what earthquakes in politics look like. It will have big long term impacts on the future living standards of the British people – impacts on employment, pay and prices that will matter much more to people than today’s falls in the value of Sterling or the stock market, bad though those are. … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Work Scotland continues to be the odd man out in Britain’s post-crisis jobs recovery 15 June 2016 by Conor D’Arcy Scotland’s been something of the odd-man-out lately. Missing out on Euro 2016 was bad enough but today’s latest labour market figures confirm that Scotland’s jobs market continues to under-perform compared to the rest of the UK. The turnaround has been rapid. As recently as October 2015, the Scottish employment rate was 74.8 per cent – … Continued READ MORE
Housing High housing costs are a particular strain on Britain’s growing army of private renters 16 May 2016 by Lindsay Judge Much of the housing debate focuses on the struggle to get on the housing ladder. It’s easy to see why. Imagine you are a middle income family wanting to buy an average priced home. Twenty years ago, if you budgeted carefully and put aside five per cent of your income each year for a deposit … Continued READ MORE
Work Waging war on non-compliance 11 May 2016 by Laura Gardiner Big policy wins – those that shift the argument among politicos and have a real impact on people’s lives – are few and far between. Ask commentators to name the biggest success in recent decades and the National Minimum Wage (NMW) would be a top choice. So much so that last summer the Conservative chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Work As a nation we have spectacularly failed to provide clear career routes for non-graduates 11 May 2016 by David Willetts and Alan Milburn In the old days – when we were both young – the route from childhood into work was simple. A Levels followed by university for a small elite and an apprenticeship with a local employer for the rest. Today, the route through university to work is chosen by the majority of young women and 40 … Continued READ MORE
Generations We must live up to our obligation to generations coming after us 9 May 2016 by David Willetts Ask people about what really worries them about the future and one answer stands out above all – that our children and grandchildren will not have the same kind of opportunities in life that we have enjoyed. The wheels of modern capitalism may keep turning so there are new technologies and new medical treatments. But … Continued READ MORE
Social security Stick or Twist – decision time for Stephen Crabb on Universal Credit 4 May 2016 by David Finch The new Work and Pensions Secretary has been dealt a risky hand. Universal Credit (UC), the ambitious combining of six working age benefits into one, reaches a critical phase this month as the roll-out of a fully working system finally begins in areas including Newcastle and Bath. Universal Credit is a huge deal. By 2020 … Continued READ MORE
Social security Could housing be the living standards issue of this parliament? 26 April 2016 by Lindsay Judge Britain’s unprecedented pay squeeze – and the resulting impact on living standards – was one of the main talking points of the last parliament. But with real wages rising again and employment at a record high, has concern over living standards abated? Not if you factor in housing. Indeed, barely a day goes by without … Continued READ MORE
Work Has our jobs recovery reached a plateau? 20 April 2016 by Laura Gardiner Despite the noise, the news in today’s labour market data is not the slight increase in unemployment. This hasn’t stopped people linking the unemployment increase to Brexit fears, or suggesting that it’s actually a good thing. No, in fact the real story – which for obvious reasons the headline writers failed to get excited about … Continued READ MORE
Tax A history of taxing the rich – what might the future hold? 18 April 2016 by Torsten Bell Thanks to Panama and its papers, the rich and the tax they do (or don’t) pay is back at the top of the news agenda. Even before details of thousands of off-shore accounts/companies/investments emerged, the issue of what tax the rich should pay had recently returned to the centre of political debate for the first … Continued READ MORE
Social security The roll out of Universal Credit will lead to a postcode lottery of winners and losers 12 April 2016 by David Finch On welfare reform, something is moving in the undergrowth. It’s called Universal Credit. The new benefit will amount to £53 billion by 2020-21, with almost half of families with children entitled to it. Only the State Pension will be bigger. Implementing this mammoth policy is the key task facing the new Secretary of State for … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Social security· Tax The new financial year: No fireworks yet but is pain brewing for low-to-middle income households? 6 April 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Prior to the government’s tax credit U-turn in last year’s Autumn Statement, 6 April 2016 was set to be a red letter day – representing the point at which more than 3 million tax credit recipient families would face the reality of reductions in their annual awards of £1,300 on average. Having shelved the cuts … Continued READ MORE
