Health and disability· Incomes· Work One billion hours: what’s happening to the working week? 3 February 2016 by Laura Gardiner Towards the end of 2015 the jobs market passed an important-sounding milestone – we now work more than one billion hours each week. This has been wholly driven by strong employment growth because at the individual level average weekly hours have actually fallen slightly over the past year, reversing the upward trend of the previous … Continued READ MORE
Work· Social security The shifting shape of worklessness creates new challenges 1 February 2016 by David Finch At the heart of the Welfare Reform and Work Bill – now experiencing a somewhat bumpier than expected ride through the House of Lords – sits a commitment to further reduce worklessness and at the same time move closer to full employment. Substantial progress is already being made on both – the proportion of children … Continued READ MORE
Growth· Macroeconomic policy Preparing for the next crisis – it’s best to ask questions now so we can shoot later 28 January 2016 by Torsten Bell In the decade leading up to the financial crisis not one speech by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown mentioned quantitative easing. Between boom, bust, and prudence, unconventional monetary policy did not get a look in. The then Governor of the Bank of England managed one mention, albeit in the context of Japan … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Scotland The living standards challenge facing the next Scottish government 20 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy The living standards challenge facing the next Scottish government This morning’s labour market statistics marked a milestone for Scotland: its employment rate has overtaken its pre-recession level, rising to 74.9 per cent. This is a welcome landmark in the recovery. But coming as it does, 15 months after England closed its ‘jobs gap’, also highlights … Continued READ MORE
Work· Scotland Completing the jobs recovery is the key to keeping Scotland ahead on pay 20 January 2016 by Torsten Bell Right across Britain the last decade has been tough for family budgets. But for everyone apart from the very richest Scotland has been a relatively good place to be. At least when it comes to pay. In 2004 typical hourly pay in Scotland was 7.7 per cent lower than in England. This was the longstanding … Continued READ MORE
Work The path to full employment requires a greater focus on inactivity 12 January 2016 by Laura Gardiner If you ask most people where jobs growth comes from they will probably point to reductions in unemployment, that is, people looking for and available to work. Somewhat surprisingly, however, during normal times most new entrants come from ‘economic inactivity’, a group that reports being unavailable for or not actively seeking work for a variety … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The billions that the spending review forgot 10 January 2016 by Adam Corlett New Year’s Eve is an exciting day. For, each year, it is the day that the government – without any fanfare – publishes new stats on the cost of tax expenditures. Presumably it is only coincidentally a time of year when scrutiny and column inches are likely to be limited. This is a shame, because … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Cities and regions Five charts that London’s mayoral candidates need to see on living standards 7 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy It’s now less than four months to go till London’s mayoral elections. Given how important living standards issues like pay, jobs and housing are to Londoners, coming up with effective policies to tackle these challenges could make the difference in what’s set to be a tight race. Here are five charts that should be front … Continued READ MORE
Work New year, new challenges for Britain’s cities when it comes to low pay 4 January 2016 by Torsten Bell In three months’ time a decent chunk of working Britain will get a pay rise when the National Living Wage is introduced at the start of April. This higher minimum wage for the over-24s is a good thing given our far too high levels of low pay. It is also one of the biggest changes … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Work New year, new wage: implementing the National Living Wage in Scotland 4 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy The first week back at work after the new year is no one’s favourite, with the brighter, better spring weather still a long way off. But this year, thousands of low-paid workers across Scotland have even more cause to be impatient for the end of winter. From April, thanks to the National Living Wage (NLW) … Continued READ MORE
Incomes Building on Britain’s living standards recovery next year will require decisive action by policy makers 31 December 2015 by Torsten Bell British policy makers might well have had a contented Christmas break. At least by recent standards. In 2015 employment reached record highs while real earnings growth returned after a six-year absence. Crucially those on the lowest earnings saw the biggest rises at over three per cent. But policy makers from the Treasury to the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Tax Tax expenditures deserve far more scrutiny 30 December 2015 by Adam Corlett Last month, the UK government presented its Spending Review, setting out departmental budgets for the next four years. There were protections for some departments and large cuts (though smaller than expected) for others. Coming after years of previous cuts, many departmental budgets by 2019 will be only half what they were in 2009. Opinions will … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth Why defusing the debt bomb means dealing with distributions 26 December 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Following the near-collapse of the global financial system back in 2008, it appeared only a matter of time before the UK’s household debt time bomb went boom. In aggregate, households owed just shy of 1.6 times their total income, up from a ratio of just over 1 at the start of the century. That there … Continued READ MORE
Housing Dealing with the housing aspiration gap 19 December 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Britain’s reputation as a nation of home-owners is under threat. While it’s true that just under two-thirds (65 per cent) of us own our own place, the home-ownership rate has fallen from 73 per cent since 2007. This downward trend has occurred despite the proportion owning their home outright continuing to rise gently in recent … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Tax “An opportunity that must not be missed” – council tax reform in Scotland and beyond 14 December 2015 by Adam Corlett Scotland’s Commission on Local Tax Reform has today released its report – recommending the abolition and replacement of the current council tax system. Few would argue that council tax in its current form is particularly sensible or fair, so what happens next ahead of Scotland’s May elections should be of interest far beyond Holyrood. The … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Incomes Five charts that show who spends what in the UK 8 December 2015 by Matthew Whittaker The issue of living standards has – rightly – risen up the agenda in recent years, following the unprecedented six year-pay squeeze and severe hit to household incomes in the years after the financial crisis of 2008. Yet too little attention is given to the other side of the living standards equation: the cost of … Continued READ MORE
Work Clearing up the confusion around the National Living Wage 7 December 2015 by Adam Corlett The National Living Wage, the blockbuster announcement of the Summer Budget, is a hugely welcome move on low pay. But we’re now four months away from its introduction and, as a new government poll reveals, many businesses are not prepared for it. The awareness raising campaign launched today is a good start towards addressing that … Continued READ MORE
Social security Universal Credit’s future depends on whether it’s the economics or the politics that comes first for the Treasury 4 December 2015 by Torsten Bell Incentives matter. That was one of the central assumptions behind the creation of Universal Credit. As well as creating a simpler benefits system (a good thing in and of itself), the purpose of the new benefit is to drive up employment by providing a clearer financial incentive to enter and progress in work. But incentives … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations Our country favours the old over the young – and the problem has been getting worse 26 November 2015 by David Willetts Our country favours the old over the young and the problem has been getting worse. George Osborne took some welcome steps yesterday to reverse that trend. The apprenticeship levy, the extension of student loans, and enabling sixth form colleges to escape their unfair VAT burden by converting to academies are important moves in the right … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Generations Skewed Britain is no country for young men 25 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Against all expectations, George Osborne managed to deliver something of a giveaway with his combined Autumn Statement and Spending Review. That might seem hard to believe given that day-to-day UK government spending is set to be reduced by more than £10bn over the next four years. For many departments that means cumulative budget cuts since … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Growth Robots will enrich not replace us 21 November 2015 by David Willetts The robots are coming to take our jobs. So says Martin Ford in The Rise of the Robots, the FT/McKinsey business book of the year. Andy Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England, last week warned that 15m jobs in Britain were at risk from automation. Is artificial intelligence about to take over? I am not so sure. Innovation is always … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The Spending Review’s big choice: will there be five ‘big losers’ or a toning down of the cuts? 20 November 2015 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett The core of next week’s Spending Review is now becoming clear. If the Treasury delivers the pre-announced scale of cuts we will see five ‘big losers’ in Whitehall including, surprisingly for some, Education. The Chancellor is now five days away from announcing his second multi-year spending review. Since 1998 these departmental budget setting exercises have … Continued READ MORE
Work Five things we’ve learned from today’s earnings figures (and one thing we haven’t) 18 November 2015 by Laura Gardiner After a longer and deeper pay squeeze than even the most pessimistic of economists would have predicted, 2015 marks the year when pay growth finally returned. Today’s publication of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) – our least timely but most comprehensive source on employee pay – gives us the opportunity to lift … Continued READ MORE
Work Lifting the wage floor increases the urgency for securing productivity gains 18 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker The welcome introduction of a significantly higher wage floor from April 2016 is set to boost the pay of around 6 million workers. But it will pose adaptation challenges for employers, particularly in lower paying sectors such as retail and hospitality. A simple thought exercise implies that maintaining a broad adherence to the international relationship … Continued READ MORE
Work· Labour Market Outlook How is the UK’s pay recovery being shared? 16 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker After 12 straight months of real-terms growth, the question on pay has shifted from ‘when will it return?’ to ‘how strong and sustainable is it’? Until now, we’ve been unable to dig any deeper to consider the additional question of ‘who’s gaining?’ but we’ll get some early clues from official data out this Wednesday. Could … Continued READ MORE
