Housing· Savings & debt The repossessions timebomb: how to help homeowners at risk of default 6 August 2014 by Katie Blacklock Against the backdrop of the most prolonged recession in living memory, the relatively small increase in homes being repossessed has been a welcome surprise. Numbers did spike, but they never reached the levels of the early 1990s and have been coming down steadily over the last four years. This owes something to government support programmes, … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Macroeconomic policy Once interest rates start rising, how can indebted households be helped through the painful transition? 24 July 2014 by Gavin Kelly Whether it is this autumn, the New Year or shortly after next May’s election, everyone knows that interest rates are going to start rising sometime relatively soon. Yet despite the endless “guess the month” speculation about the precise timing of the first rise, little thought has actually been given to the bigger and longer-term question … Continued READ MORE
Incomes Living standards: what happens next? 15 July 2014 by Matthew Whittaker Going into next year’s election – the ‘living standards election’ – party political strategists are likely to fret about the length of voters’ memories. When asked whether the government has made them better off, will they compare their position with last year or with five years ago? The depth of the decline in incomes associated … Continued READ MORE
Work Why our policy-makers have little idea of what workers are really paid 10 July 2014 by Laura Gardiner We are frequently told that earnings are the black spot on the otherwise positive labour market story, but in truth they are also the blind spot. The reason is that none of our official earnings measures captures the growing ranks of the self-employed, who now make up one in seven workers. This seems incredibly lop-sided … Continued READ MORE
Work By omitting the earnings of one in seven workers from jobs data, our economic policymakers are operating in the dark 10 July 2014 by Gavin Kelly Whether you view the self-employed as the silent victims of our invidious jobs market or emblems of a new spirit of entrepreneurialism spreading through society, what is beyond doubt is that the ranks of those working for themselves are swelling by the day. The numbers have grown by a staggering 700,000 since the financial crisis. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty The poverty challenge remains – but its nature is changing 1 July 2014 by David Finch Today’s annual poverty update from the DWP is, on the face of it, fairly encouraging. Despite the poor state of the economy in 2012-13 – the period the latest figures relate to – child poverty edged down slightly, to 17 per cent from 18 per cent in 2011-12. Having fallen quite sharply at the start of the … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Will the return of economic growth mean rising wages for workers? 19 June 2014 by Gavin Kelly How effective will advanced economies be at translating economic growth into higher wages for those in the low to middle part of the distribution and is this link weakening over time, reinforcing a ‘trickle-up’ tendency in mature economies? A great deal depends on these questions, yet they all too rarely are directly addressed. The answers … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Growth Rethinking post-crash social policy – IPPR’s Condition of Britain 19 June 2014 by Gavin Kelly Another day, another think-tank report. That, no doubt, is how it must feel to news desks, political hacks and listeners of the Today programme alike. Many of those reports disappear without a trace. But of those that leave a mark some succeed in making an argument that chimes with the times even if it’s not … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt The Bank’s conundrum countdown – Tightening policy in the shadow of a debt overhang 17 June 2014 by Matthew Whittaker If Mary Poppins taught us anything, it’s that a British bank is run with precision. But against a backdrop of rapidly changing and sometimes conflicting economic data, the balancing act currently facing the Bank of England requires a level of calibration rarely before seen. Clearly monetary policy must be tightened over the coming months and … Continued READ MORE
Work Deconstructing the wages data 11 June 2014 by Laura Gardiner It might not hold quite the same broad appeal as the start of the World Cup, but today’s labour market statistics release from the ONS has been hotly anticipated nonetheless, given the centrality of this data to our understanding of the economic recovery and the timing of interest rate increases. The overwhelmingly positive news we’ve … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth We need to solve the mortgage problem before interest rates rise 23 May 2014 by Matthew Whittaker The question of when interest rates should begin to rise has been much-discussed in recent weeks, and after five years of sitting at the rock-bottom level of 0.5 per cent, a gradual increase is expected from next year onwards. This has implications for the UK’s 8.4 million mortgagors, one in ten of whom risk being … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Savings & debt· Wealth The end of a ‘golden era’ for mortgages 23 May 2014 by Matthew Whittaker It’s been a busy week in the world of monetary policy. On Sunday, Mark Carney said that rising house prices pose the biggest threat to economic recovery. On Tuesday, the official statistics told us what we already knew – that house prices in London are soaring, by 17 per cent year-on-year. Some homeowners are finding … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Savings & debt· Wealth The ‘mortgage prisoners’ with no escape route 22 May 2014 by Matthew Whittaker Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has made headlines after expressing concerns about the dangers of another “big debt overhang” building up as house prices continue to rise and approvals for large mortgages increase. He is right to be concerned, and his intervention is a further reminder of how we need to … Continued READ MORE
Work Seattle, Stuttgart, Switzerland – welcome to the new era of minimum wage radicalism 16 May 2014 by Gavin Kelly Lift your gaze from the humdrum debate on living standards in the UK and look overseas: something seems to be stirring on the politics of low pay. On Sunday, the Swiss vote on whether to introduce a wage floor of an almighty 22 francs (£14.90) per hour – by some way the highest in the … Continued READ MORE
Work Laura Gardiner interview on self-employment 15 May 2014 by Laura Gardiner The Resolution Foundation is an independent research and policy organisation with a goal to improve living standards for the 15 million people in Britain on low and middle incomes. To achieve this they conduct rigorous research, analysis and policy development to inform public debates and influence key decision makers in government, the private sector, and … Continued READ MORE
Work The UK’s surge in self-employment brings with it increased financial insecurity 8 May 2014 by Conor D’Arcy One in seven workers in the UK are now self-employed with more than 650,000 starting out on their own since the recession. While some have argued that many work for themselves more out of necessity than choice, a recent survey for the Resolution Foundation confirmed that the overwhelming majority of the UK’s 4.5 million self-employed … Continued READ MORE
Work The risks and rewards of being self-employed 7 May 2014 by Laura Gardiner Since the recession, the Yorkshire and Humber region has added 14,000 employees but an extra 22,000 self-employed people. It looks as if higher levels of self-employment are here to stay but our research suggests that while most of the self-employed prefer being their own boss, they often struggle with accessing basics such as housing and … Continued READ MORE
Work Looking past the headlines on zero-hours contracts 30 April 2014 by Laura Gardiner Today’s new figures from the ONS shed further light on recent lively debate on zero-hours contracts (ZHCs). Sort of. Back in 2012, around the time that the zero-hours debate began to capture the attention of politicians and commentators, it was reported that there were around a quarter of a million workers on a ZHC in … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Mobility Mobility and the squeezed middle 22 April 2014 by Craig Holmes A common criticism of the recent concern over rising inequality is that it looks at the distribution of earnings and wealth at one point in time. Individuals are mobile and tend, on balance, to find better paying jobs over the course of their lifetime, which might mean that looking at their wages at any one … Continued READ MORE
Work Turning the corner: understanding this week’s wage data 14 April 2014 by Matthew Whittaker After nearly six years in which wage growth has been consistently outstripped by inflation, expectation is building that this week will mark an official end to the pay squeeze. As the chart below shows, the gap between the Office for National Statistics’ Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation measures has been narrowing … Continued READ MORE
Incomes What’s really been happening to living standards? 7 April 2014 by Gavin Kelly Despite the fact that it’s been centre-stage for a number of years, there is still a lot of confusion about the squeeze on household incomes: who has really been hit and by how much? Given that this will be a central political issue between now and the election it’s worth pausing over. Currently there are … Continued READ MORE
Work Pay set is to go up, or down, or stay the same – it all depends on how you measure it 3 April 2014 by Gavin Kelly and Matthew Whittaker We can expect to hear an awful lot about the closing gap between pay and inflation over the next few months as, inevitably and thankfully, on some measure we close in on a “cross-over point” where wages overtake price rises. But this poses the question: which measure of inflation and, indeed, which measure of pay? … Continued READ MORE
Social security Will the welfare cap stand the test of time? 25 March 2014 by Gavin Kelly George Osborne’s welfare cap will be voted on tomorrow. It’s viewed by many as a moment of reckoning for Labour in which it will be caught in a deadly trap: support eye-wateringly tight and binding proposals that threaten the future of the welfare state or oppose them and stand exposed as the believers in big … Continued READ MORE
Work We should reform zero-hours contracts, not ban them 25 March 2014 by Vidhya Alakeson The latest estimate from the Office for National Statistics is that close to 600,000 workers or 2 per cent of the workforce are employed on a zero-hours contract. Health and social care, hospitality and administration account for over 50 per cent of these workers. Zero-hours contracts are intended to offer flexibility to employers and workers. … Continued READ MORE
Public finances Four tests for Osborne’s Budget 20 March 2014 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on The Spectator With the Coalition taking pre-Budget briefing to new levels you’d be excused for thinking there’s little we don’t know about tomorrow’s statement. But here are four questions we can’t yet answer, and that will be crucial to assessing whether this is a Budget for low-to-middle earners as the Chancellor claims: … Continued READ MORE
