Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Stairway to headroom Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 27 November 2025 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor’s second tax-rising budget arrived under dark clouds, but forecasts came in better than feared. But even though she was saved from the worst predictions of past weeks, the Chancellor still faced a tough task to clear three big hurdles – fixing the public finances, easing the cost of living squeeze on families, and taxing smartly and fairly. This briefing note argues that she did clear these hurdles, albeit not flawlessly. She scraped over … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Black holes and consolidations Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025 4 November 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Elliott Christensen and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and James Smith This make-or-break Budget is set to include significant spending cuts and tax rises spurred by a significant deterioration in the public finances. So, in this briefing note we discuss how the outlook has changed since the Spring Statement and set out how the Chancellor should respond. READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Fiscal policy· Economic growth Trend setters What is the OBR’s forecast for trend productivity growth, and why it matters so much for the Budget 14 October 2025 by Greg Thwaites and Elliott Christensen The Budget in November is likely to reveal a significant deterioration in the outlook for the public finances, requiring the Government to raise taxes in response. A key reason for this is what the Office for Budget Responsibility will assume about how fast the economy can sustainably grow. It has been eight years since this … Continued READ MORE
