Where the rubber hits the road Reforming vehicle taxes 1 June 2023 by Jonathan Marshall and Adam Corlett This briefing note examines the future of motoring taxes, which need extensive reform given the necessary and welcome rise of electric vehicles. We detail a suite of policies that will protect revenues and lower income households, reduce congestion, and facilitate the transition to zero-carbon motoring. READ MORE
Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year, 2023! Tax and benefit changes coming in 2023-24 1 April 2023 by Adam Corlett 2022-23 featured an array of tax and benefit changes, including the introduction then cancellation of a major tax rate rise, and three big cash payment schemes to help cover living costs. Tax and benefit policy in the financial year 2023-24 may prove to be less fickle, and in this spotlight we set out what is … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances We’re going on a growth Hunt Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context 16 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances New Budget, same problems Spring Budget preview 6 March 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In our Spring Budget preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget on March 15th, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor in three key areas: cost-of-living support, public sector pay and boosting growth. We find that there is finally some good news for the Chancellor in the short … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets ISA ISA Baby Assessing the Government’s policies to encourage household saving 16 January 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie The cost of living crisis highlights the long-standing issue of there being too many UK families with too little in savings. This is not a reflection of policy neglect: there have been many schemes over recent decades to encourage families to save more, covering both measures which cut taxes on savings returns and those which … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Help today, squeeze tomorrow Putting the 2022 Autumn Statement in context 18 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report presents Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the 2022 Autumn Statement. In the face of grim economic and fiscal forecasts, Jeremy Hunt announced energy support today but tougher times tomorrow, with stealth tax rises for the middle and top of the income distribution followed by spending cuts after the next election. READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2022 14 November 2022 by Molly Broome and Sophie Hale and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Louise Murphy and Lalitha Try Our fourth Intergenerational Audit – part of the ESRC-funded Connecting Generations partnership – provides an analysis of economic living standards across generations in Britain. In so doing, it analyses the latest data across four domains: Household incomes and costs; Jobs, skills and pay; Wealth and assets; and Housing costs and security. In each of these domains, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Mind the (credibility) gap Autumn Statement preview 1 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Lalitha Try In our Autumn-Statement preview slidepack, we present new analysis that explores the economic outlook ahead of the Autumn Statement on 17 November, and the critical decisions that the new Prime Minister and Chancellor must make. With the latest political turmoil triggered by attempts to completely rewrite economic policy, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are under … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Cutting tax cuts Jeremy Hunt rewrites Government’s economic policy 17 October 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith The new Chancellor has rewritten UK economic policy in order to reduce the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the Treasury to deliver spending cuts. He has now reversed 60 per cent of the tax cuts announced less than four weeks ago and committing to scale back support for energy … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare The Long Squeeze Benefit uprating policy for April 2023 13 October 2022 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try To offset the impact of tax cuts on the public finances, the Government is considering how it might cut spending. One option that has been discussed is the possibility of raising some benefits in line with earnings rather than inflation next April. This paper explores what this might entail, the potential savings and impacts, and … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Blowing the budget Assessing the implications of the September 2022 fiscal statement 24 September 2022 by Torsten Bell and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor decided to blow the budget in his first fiscal statement, bringing forward a £45 billion package of tax cuts, the biggest for 50 years. In this briefing note, we show that today’s Government is no longer fiscally conservative nor courting the Red Wall. Instead, debt is on course to rise in each and every year of the forecast period, and the focus has shifted to the South of England, where the beneficiaries of these tax cuts are more likely to be living. READ MORE
Living standards· Public spending· Economy and public finances A blank cheque An analysis of the new cap on energy prices 13 September 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith Liz Truss’s first major act as Prime Minister was to set out a huge energy support package to reduce the scale of the living standards’ catastrophe this winter, with the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) as its highlight. The EPG will mean that annual energy prices for the typical household are capped at £2,500 for two … Continued READ MORE
Living standards In at the deep end The living standards crisis facing the new Prime Minister 1 September 2022 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try This paper sets out projections for household living standards through to 2026-27. With the UK facing the largest two-year real income fall in at least a century, these forecasts make it clear that a big policy response will be needed from the new government. READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economy and public finances· Tax· Macroeconomic policy· Political parties and elections Talking tax What’s been said and what’s gone unsaid in the Conservative leadership election? 26 July 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett Elections are rarely entirely about a single issue, but there are exceptions. Brexit in the 2019 general election stands out, and today tax cuts totally dominate the 2022 Conservative leadership election. Judging by last night’s TV debate, the contest is staying that way, with little discussion of the huge questions facing the country, from the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty The Living Standards Audit 2022 4 July 2022 by Adam Corlett and Felicia Odamtten and Lalitha Try This report, the 14th in an annual series, takes a long view of what has happened to household incomes in Britain over recent decades, what has driven periods of growth and stagnation, and the lessons that need to be learned if Britain is to return to stronger income growth in the decade ahead. The report … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Crunch time Bank of England raises rates again and signals cost of living crisis is set to deliver a £1,200 hit to incomes 5 May 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith Today the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised rates at a fourth successive meeting – a first in the 25 years since it was granted independence – to 1 per cent, a level not seen since the financial crisis. The direct impact of this change in rates on households will be small in the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax Happy new tax year? National Insurance and Income Tax changes in 2022 3 April 2022 by Adam Corlett The start of the new tax year brings with it one of Rishi Sunak’s major tax reforms: the rise in National Insurance, announced last September and linked to additional support for the NHS and social care. This spotlight explores what this rate rise – together with freezes in the Income Tax personal allowance, the newly-announced … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty Stressed out April brings an acute squeeze on UK living standards as higher energy bills lead to widespread fuel stress 1 April 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall April 2022 will see the UK’s cost of living crisis intensify as energy prices jump by more than half overnight, pushing 5 million English households into fuel stress, even accounting for support measures recently announced by the Chancellor. This is not the end, though. Against a backdrop of the highest inflation rate in 40 years … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Inflation Nation Putting Spring Statement 2022 in context 24 March 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2022 Spring Statement. The Chancellor approached this with the highest inflation in 40 years and the worst income squeeze on record lying ahead of us. Against that backdrop, and with plenty of fiscal ammunition (thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax Softening the blow Looking ahead to Spring Statement 2022 21 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Torsten Bell Faced with the highest inflation in at least three decades, the upcoming Spring Statement is bound to provide more support for households. But the precise set of choices – which could include support via Fuel Duty, benefits or National Insurance – will play an important role in determining the force of the cost of living … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Catch 2022 Spring Statement 2022 preview 14 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Felicia Odamtten and James Smith Ahead of the 2022 Spring Statement, we preview the economic and fiscal outlook and discuss the key decisions that the Chancellor will face. The Chancellor comes into the Spring Statement with good news since the Autumn. The strongest peacetime growth in a century means the economy is around half a per cent larger, and around … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The Living Standards Outlook 2022 8 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try Our fourth Living Standards Outlook explores the prospects for household incomes over both the near-term, as rising inflation causes a cost of living crisis, and the longer-term, based on the latest economic forecasts. READ MORE
Economy 2030 Shrinking footprints The impacts of the net zero transition on households and consumption 1 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall The 2020s are set to bring a step change in climate policy, with efforts to decarbonise the UK economy beginning to impact on household consumption to a greater extent than before. Different households will be exposed to these changes in different ways, but they will come in two flavours: upfront investment now to deliver savings … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty· Economy and public finances The price is right? The April 2022 energy price rise and the Government’s response 4 February 2022 by Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith The Government has opted for universalism and minimising the hit to the public purse in its response to the energy price rise yesterday. The announced measures take the sting out of Ofgem’s £693 rise in the energy price cap in April with a broad-based package of support. All households will get a £200 discount on … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption Higher and higher Averting a looming energy bill crisis 17 January 2022 by Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall The higher energy price cap due to be introduced on April 1 will see energy costs jump by more than 50 per cent overnight. As a result, the share of English households experiencing ‘fuel stress’ (i.e. spending more than 10 per cent of their household budget on energy) will triple from 9 per cent to … Continued READ MORE
