Five challenges· Tax Revenue and reform What tax changes could – and should – we see in Autumn Budget 2024? 10 September 2024 by Adam Corlett Ahead of Autumn Budget 2024, this report explores some of the tax policy choices that may face the new Chancellor, and sets out what reforms could best raise revenue while also improving the design of the tax system. There are many good reasons to expect a range of tax policy changes at this Budget. It … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes The Living Standards Outlook 2024 29 August 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett This is our sixth annual Living Standards Outlook. It provides an assessment of incomes, poverty and inequality as things stand in 2024-25, and projections up to 2029-30 using economic forecasts and policy assumptions inherited by the new Government. It also explores how three scenarios, based on an optimistic outcome for earnings growth and two illustrative … Continued READ MORE
Measuring up? Exploring data discrepancies in the Labour Force Survey 13 August 2024 by Adam Corlett and Hannah Slaughter Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, significant issues have emerged with the UK’s official labour market data. The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) main data source on the labour market, the Labour Force Survey (LFS), estimates that there are over a million fewer workers than the trends seen in other data sources suggest. And … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Living standards Hard times Assessing household incomes since 2010 28 June 2024 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try This briefing note is part of the Resolution Foundation’s ‘Need to Know Election 2024’ series and examines how income growth, poverty and inequality have changed over the last Parliament and since 2010. At the General Election, living standards growth should be on the agenda for any party wishing to form the next government. This is … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax Hiding in plain sight The Government’s record on taxes and the challenges ahead 8 June 2024 by Adam Corlett In this briefing note – part of a programme of outputs supported by the Nuffield Foundation to put the upcoming UK general election in context – we consider some of the key tax questions for the 2024 general election and beyond. Has the government raised people’s taxes or lowered them? How different are the parties’ … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year Six big changes to pay, tax and benefit policy – and how they affect households across Britain 28 March 2024 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Alex Clegg The beginning of April brings a new tax year, and a flurry of tax, benefit and pay policy changes coming into effect. Benefit levels are finally returning to their pre-pandemic levels after a difficult few years. Threshold freezes will continue to pull more people into paying tax, but the tax they pay on every extra … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Housing Housing Outlook Q1 2024 25 March 2024 by Lindsay Judge and Adam Corlett Welcome to our first Housing Outlook in what looks set to be an election year, and one where housing could well be a prominent issue. This quarter, we consider whether the UK’s housing woes are shared by other developed economies, or if the issues of housing affordability and quality we highlight so frequently are distinctly … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Election Budget Spring Budget 2024 preview 21 February 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Budget, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of what will be a key pre-election economic-policy event. We focus on the scope for cutting taxes, and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. We find that, despite near-term bad … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Incomes· Labour market· Wealth & assets· Housing· Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2023 13 November 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti Five years ago, our Intergenerational Commission set out the numerous threats to the UK’s promise of intergenerational progress. More recently, the spotlight has once again fallen on this issue, but this time in the US, where the latest data has started to suggest that living standards for the millennials are catching up with, and on … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Preparing the pitch Autumn Statement 2023 preview 6 November 2023 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 A tale of two cities (part 2) A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Greater Manchester and beyond 19 September 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Henry G. Overman and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Lalitha Try Few would disagree that the UK has a significant productivity problem, or fail to recognise that the poor performance of the nation’s largest cities outside the capital contribute to that situation. As the Economy 2030 Inquiry has made clear, the productivity of our largest cities lags the UK average, bucking the global trend for bigger … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Welfare Half time The UK’s commitment to halve poverty by 2030 18 September 2023 by Adam Corlett On 18-19 September, representatives from around the world – including the Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden and the Foreign Secretary James Cleverly – will meet for a UN summit on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals are not just about development in poorer countries: the targets and the discussions around this summit have relevance … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 A tale of two cities (part 1) A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Birmingham and beyond 14 September 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Henry G. Overman and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Lalitha Try After the success of the Commonwealth games in 2022, Birmingham is now in the news for the wrong reasons. Financial difficulties facing the City Council culminated in a formal declaration on 5 September 2023 that Britain’s largest local authority was, in effect, bankrupt. But the understandable short-term focus on the council’s financial woes must not … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The Living Standards Outlook – Summer 2023 Update 6 September 2023 by Adam Corlett Household incomes are always a crucial perspective on how living standards are changing, particularly during economic crises. And in democracies, changing living standards also matter for politics, particularly ahead of elections. As Ronald Reagan famously put it in 1980, the answer to “are you better off today than you were four years ago?” is often … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Tax Tax planning How to match higher taxes with better taxes 28 June 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Greg Thwaites The UK’s tax take is rising, and is likely to stay high, but the system is not improving. The UK needs a tax strategy to support its economic strategy, using the tax system to boost shared growth. This paper, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, describes what a good tax strategy would look like and … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Economy 2030 Where the rubber hits the road Reforming vehicle taxes 1 June 2023 by Jonathan Marshall and Adam Corlett This briefing note examines the future of motoring taxes, which need extensive reform given the necessary and welcome rise of electric vehicles. We detail a suite of policies that will protect revenues and lower income households, reduce congestion, and facilitate the transition to zero-carbon motoring. READ MORE
Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year, 2023! Tax and benefit changes coming in 2023-24 1 April 2023 by Adam Corlett 2022-23 featured an array of tax and benefit changes, including the introduction then cancellation of a major tax rate rise, and three big cash payment schemes to help cover living costs. Tax and benefit policy in the financial year 2023-24 may prove to be less fickle, and in this spotlight we set out what is … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances We’re going on a growth Hunt Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context 16 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances New Budget, same problems Spring Budget preview 6 March 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In our Spring Budget preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget on March 15th, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor in three key areas: cost-of-living support, public sector pay and boosting growth. We find that there is finally some good news for the Chancellor in the short … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets ISA ISA Baby Assessing the Government’s policies to encourage household saving 16 January 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie The cost of living crisis highlights the long-standing issue of there being too many UK families with too little in savings. This is not a reflection of policy neglect: there have been many schemes over recent decades to encourage families to save more, covering both measures which cut taxes on savings returns and those which … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Help today, squeeze tomorrow Putting the 2022 Autumn Statement in context 18 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report presents Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the 2022 Autumn Statement. In the face of grim economic and fiscal forecasts, Jeremy Hunt announced energy support today but tougher times tomorrow, with stealth tax rises for the middle and top of the income distribution followed by spending cuts after the next election. READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2022 14 November 2022 by Molly Broome and Sophie Hale and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Louise Murphy and Lalitha Try Our fourth Intergenerational Audit – part of the ESRC-funded Connecting Generations partnership – provides an analysis of economic living standards across generations in Britain. In so doing, it analyses the latest data across four domains: Household incomes and costs; Jobs, skills and pay; Wealth and assets; and Housing costs and security. In each of these domains, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Mind the (credibility) gap Autumn Statement preview 1 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Lalitha Try In our Autumn-Statement preview slidepack, we present new analysis that explores the economic outlook ahead of the Autumn Statement on 17 November, and the critical decisions that the new Prime Minister and Chancellor must make. With the latest political turmoil triggered by attempts to completely rewrite economic policy, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are under … Continued READ MORE
