Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Understatement of the year Putting the 2026 Spring Forecast in context 4 March 2026 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Cillian Sheehan and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Jamie Titus-Glover and Lalitha Try The Spring Forecast was billed as a non‑event, but the underlying story is stark: weak growth, rising risks, and only a fleeting improvement in living standards. Our analysis shows why makerspolicy makers can’t rely on good fiscal luck lasting. READ MORE
Net zero· Living standards· Prices & consumption Power cut What the Government’s energy bill discount means for households, and what comes next 21 February 2026 by Jonathan Marshall Next week, Ofgem is expected to announce that the Q2 2026 energy price cap will be nearly £120 below current levels. This reduction is overwhelmingly driven by the Government’s energy bill discount, which will deploy approximately £6.9 billion of public spending over the next three years to lower one of British families’ biggest expenses. The … Continued READ MORE
Net zero Green your eats A living standards-first approach to cutting emissions from agriculture and land use 3 February 2026 by Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall This report provides an assessment of the UK’s progress toward net zero in the land use and agriculture sector – the only major area where emissions have barely fallen over the past 15 years. It examines both sides of the challenge: cutting emissions from food production and reshaping how land is used. READ MORE
Net zero· Living standards Hot take What to make of the Government’s Warm Homes Plan 22 January 2026 by Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall January 2026 saw the eventual release of the Warm Homes Plan. However, the Plan will not benefit all households in need. This Spotlight reveals that a reliance on financial transactions (government-backed loans) risks favouring better-off families. And while regulation is being used to deliver significant change in the private- and socially-rented sectors, Ministers have shied away from stronger action that could accelerate wider progress, such as tougher rules that would enable the cost of key technologies like heat pumps to fall quicker. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Stairway to headroom Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 27 November 2025 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor’s second tax-rising budget arrived under dark clouds, but forecasts came in better than feared. But even though she was saved from the worst predictions of past weeks, the Chancellor still faced a tough task to clear three big hurdles – fixing the public finances, easing the cost of living squeeze on families, and taxing smartly and fairly. This briefing note argues that she did clear these hurdles, albeit not flawlessly. She scraped over … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Black holes and consolidations Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025 4 November 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Elliott Christensen and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and James Smith This make-or-break Budget is set to include significant spending cuts and tax rises spurred by a significant deterioration in the public finances. So, in this briefing note we discuss how the outlook has changed since the Spring Statement and set out how the Chancellor should respond. READ MORE
Net zero Splitting the bill How can Government help families with high energy bills? 16 October 2025 by Jonathan Marshall This note looks at the factors behind stubbornly high energy bills and how ministers could act to ease pressure on households. It considers how change can be enacted to work for vulnerable families and promote the net zero transition, while remaining fiscally sustainable. READ MORE
Net zero· Housing No country for cold homes Key considerations for the Warm Homes Plan 7 August 2025 by Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall The Government’s imminent Warm Homes Plan aims to overhaul England’s housing stock so homes are cheaper and cleaner to keep warm. This note sets out how it can best work to improve living standards for lower income households. READ MORE
Net zero· Time use Flex appeal How to reform electricity pricing for a cleaner and cheaper energy system 24 June 2025 by Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall Britain needs to transform its electricity system for net zero, shifting from fixed prices to time-and-location varying tariffs. This could save £18bn annually by 2040, but it requires careful design to protect vulnerable households while capturing efficiency gains. READ MORE
Net zero Turning up the heat Making the home heating transition work for low-income households 10 April 2025 by Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall Decarbonising home heating is one of the knottiest parts of the net zero transition, with big implications on families’ finances and behaviour. This report examines progress so far and discusses what policy needs to do so that families on lower incomes can benefit from changing how they keep warm at home. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Living standards· Welfare Unsung Britain bears the brunt Putting the 2025 Spring Statement in context 27 March 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This briefing note analyses the choices the Government has made in the context of an awkward backdrop to the 2025 Spring Statement. READ MORE
Paid in full The perils facing pre-payment energy customers this winter 24 December 2024 by Jonathan Marshall As we move into the depths of winter, energy costs remain close to the top of the political agenda. But one vulnerable group – the 4 million UK households who pay for energy via pre-payment meters (PPMs) – remains overlooked in the national debate. High prices and the concentration of energy use in the winter … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Net zero Getting the green light The path to a fair transition for the transport sector 17 October 2024 by Adam Corlett and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall Transport is now the largest component of the UK’s carbon footprint, and rapid decarbonisation will significantly change how people travel. This report examines squares up to the three main modes of travel – cars, public transport, and aviation – and assesses how emissions can be reduced while ensuring that both the costs and benefits of cheaper travel are shared fairly. READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Welfare Cold comfort Mitigating the Winter Fuel Payment cut 1 October 2024 by Alex Clegg and Jonathan Marshall The announcement that Winter Fuel Payments are to be restricted to recipients of Pension Credit or similar means-tested benefits has sparked controversy[1]. The Government and its defenders point to the lack of sense, in these straitened times, of making fuel payments to all pensioners when the majority do not need them. Opponents, however, highlight the … Continued READ MORE
Housing Building blocks Assessing the role of planning reform in meeting the Government’s housing targets 12 September 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti The Government has prioritised planning reform as its key policy lever to deliver an ambitious target of 1.5 million additional homes by the end of this Parliament. This note explores the extent to which the proposed reforms to the planning system will help reach this target, while also highlighting other constraints on housing supply that … Continued READ MORE
Net zero Blowing away the competition What to make of Britain’s 2024 renewable energy auction results 3 September 2024 by Jonathan Marshall The latest round of renewable energy auctions procured a record 9.6 gigawatts (GW) of low-carbon energy, of which the majority (5 GW) was offshore wind. This represents a much-needed acceleration towards the new Government’s ambitious decarbonisation targets and was essential given the failure of last year’s auction. This is good news: as well as quickly … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Productivity & industrial strategy Net zeroing in on investment Priorities for the new Government in delivering a fair transition 22 July 2024 by Jonathan Marshall Cutting carbon in the second half of the 2020s is all about investment, but high upfront costs and wider economic woes mean these could be insurmountable for many. This paper outlines priorities to ensure this transition is navigated as fairly as possible. READ MORE
Net zero Electric dreams How can we decarbonise electricity without disadvantaging poorer families? 22 April 2024 by Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall A low carbon electricity system will underpin the UK’s journey to net zero, making the electricity we use today greener but also fuelling our cars and keeping us warm at home in decades to come. But this overhaul of our energy system requires a significant step change in investment, with the costs of this spending … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Preparing the pitch Autumn Statement 2023 preview 6 November 2023 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued READ MORE
Gotta get through this Energy bills this winter 24 August 2023 by Jonathan Marshall and Emily Fry Britain’s energy bill crisis is not over: Ofgem’s imminent confirmation of the Q4 2023 price cap is expected to show that annualised typical energy bills will be above £1,900 from October, close to double those before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and only a little below the effective level of £2,100 from last winter that resulted … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Housing It’s getting hot in here How ever-warmer UK summer temperatures will have an outsized impact on low-income households and low-paid workers 15 August 2023 by Jonathan Marshall Although the UK’s summer of 2023 has been something of a washout so far, the country is getting hotter, with temperatures over 40oC – first experienced in the UK in 2022 – set to become the norm. Hotter weather will impact different people in different ways, so this Spotlight explores what it means for Brits … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Economy 2030 Where the rubber hits the road Reforming vehicle taxes 1 June 2023 by Jonathan Marshall and Adam Corlett This briefing note examines the future of motoring taxes, which need extensive reform given the necessary and welcome rise of electric vehicles. We detail a suite of policies that will protect revenues and lower income households, reduce congestion, and facilitate the transition to zero-carbon motoring. READ MORE
