Pensions· Social security What a ratchet! Why it’s time to stop being polite about the triple lock 10 June 2026 by Ruth Curtice and Alex Clegg The State Pension triple lock has delivered real gains for pensioners since its introduction in 2012. But the case for boosting pensioner incomes over and above others has now run out, while the case for the triple lock as a way to deliver such a boost was always poor. Pensioners have seen three times as … Continued READ MORE
Wales· Scotland· Social security· Cities and regions The state of the nations Social security in a devolved UK 21 May 2026 by Mark Simpson and Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg and Rod Hick and Tom Lee and Sioned Pearce and Ruth Patrick This report is part of the research programme of ‘Safety Nets: Social security for families in a devolved UK’. We are the first comprehensive, four-country study of the devolution and localisation of social security in the United Kingdom. The project team spans eight universities, Child Poverty Action Group and the Resolution Foundation. Devolution and localisation … Continued READ MORE
Public services· Public finances· Growth· Tax See it. Say it. Sort it. How to reset Britain’s economic policy 14 May 2026 by Matthew Cavanagh and Alex Clegg and Ruth Curtice and James Smith This briefing note sets out how the Government should reset its economic strategy against a bleak backdrop of weak growth, falling living standards, and high borrowing costs. It provides clear direction – a ruthless prioritisation of growth and focus on living standards – while calling for honesty about the scale of Britain’s problems and setting out a bold agenda for change. READ MORE
Health and disability· Work Lost in transition An examination of why the UK NEET rate is high and rising 28 April 2026 by Lindsay Judge and Alex Clegg and Julia Diniz and Nye Cominetti and Imogen Stone This report investigates why the UK’s NEET rate has been rising since 2019, and why it has long been higher than in many other countries. READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption Power struggle Assessing the options for supporting families with the rise in the cost of energy 18 March 2026 by Alex Clegg and Ruth Curtice and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith and Lalitha Try Conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices from around $70 to $100 per barrel, with wholesale gas prices also rising by over 60 per cent. The duration and severity of the ongoing war are uncertain, but the longer it continues the more likely it is that both petrol prices and energy bills rise, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Understatement of the year Putting the 2026 Spring Forecast in context 4 March 2026 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Cillian Sheehan and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Jamie Titus-Glover and Lalitha Try The Spring Forecast was billed as a non‑event, but the underlying story is stark: weak growth, rising risks, and only a fleeting improvement in living standards. Our analysis shows why makerspolicy makers can’t rely on good fiscal luck lasting. READ MORE
Incomes Living Standards Outlook 2026 10 February 2026 by Alex Clegg and Louise Murphy and James Smith We present a living standards outlook for non-pensioner families, highlighting strong income growth over 2026-27, driven by benefit changes, but a weak longer-term outlook. It argues that a coherent strategy for improving living standards must include action on productivity, social security and the cost of living. READ MORE
Social security Listen and learn Improving the way that Universal Credit works 29 January 2026 by Alex Clegg and Lindsay Judge and Ruth Patrick and Millie Light April 2026 will mark a true milestone for the UK benefits system: the end of the thirteen-year rollout of Universal Credit (UC) that has brought together all means-tested working-age benefits. From this point, an estimated 8.5 million working-age adults and 6.5 million children will be living in households in receipt of UC, equivalent to a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Stairway to headroom Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 27 November 2025 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor’s second tax-rising budget arrived under dark clouds, but forecasts came in better than feared. But even though she was saved from the worst predictions of past weeks, the Chancellor still faced a tough task to clear three big hurdles – fixing the public finances, easing the cost of living squeeze on families, and taxing smartly and fairly. This briefing note argues that she did clear these hurdles, albeit not flawlessly. She scraped over … Continued READ MORE
Public services· Social security· Cities and regions The localisation era Assessing the post-2013 rise of localised social security 20 November 2025 by Alex Clegg This report is part of the project Safety Nets: social security for families in a devolved UK, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. It examines the growth of localised social security in the UK from 2013, focusing on how responsibilities for discretionary support and Council Tax Reduction (CTR) have shifted from the UK government to local … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Black holes and consolidations Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025 4 November 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Elliott Christensen and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and James Smith This make-or-break Budget is set to include significant spending cuts and tax rises spurred by a significant deterioration in the public finances. So, in this briefing note we discuss how the outlook has changed since the Spring Statement and set out how the Chancellor should respond. READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Social security No half measures Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget 30 October 2025 by Alex Clegg and Lindsay Judge The Government’s long-awaited Child Poverty Strategy is due next month, close to, or contemporaneous with, the Autumn Budget. There have been some welcome announcements already: the over-indexation of the Universal Credit (UC) standard allowance for the next four years, for example, and the extension of free school meals to all children in families on UC … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances A healthy State? Putting the 2025 Spending Review into context 12 June 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Charlie McCurdy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Greg Thwaites Yesterday saw the Chancellor reveal the results of the first ‘zero-based’ review since 2008, the first stand-alone Spending Review since 2019, and the first three-year plan since 2021. It was the Government’s chance to say what its priorities are after painful announcements on higher taxes and borrowing, and then welfare cuts, at the Autumn Budget … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Public services· Social security Renew and improve Setting up the Household Support Fund for the future 22 May 2025 by Alex Clegg and Ruth Patrick and Jed Meers and Mike Brewer and Uisce Jordan and Millie Light and Rhiannon Simms and Hayley Bennett and Beth Watts-Cobbe and Joe Pardoe This briefing note, part of the Safety Nets project, assesses how the Household Support Fund could be improved in a longer-term settlement, through analysis of administrative data and interviews with local authorities and recipients of the scheme. READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Social security Limited ambition? An assessment of the rumoured options for easing the two-child limit 12 May 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett Abolishing the two-child limit would be the most cost-effective way to reduce child poverty; if it is not scrapped, we project that 4.8 million children (34 per cent) will be in poverty by 2029-30, including half of all children in large families. READ MORE
Social security· Savings & debt Saving penalties Reforming the capital rules in Universal Credit 24 April 2025 by Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Ed Pybus Means-tested benefits in Britain are built on the principle that individuals with significant financial resources should use those before turning to the state for help. That’s why wealth – as well as income – is assessed when determining eligibility and entitlement levels for means-tested support. But while income means-testing has been widely studied and debated, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Budgets & fiscal events· Social security Unsung Britain bears the brunt Putting the 2025 Spring Statement in context 27 March 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This briefing note analyses the choices the Government has made in the context of an awkward backdrop to the 2025 Spring Statement. READ MORE
Health and disability· Incomes· Social security A dangerous road? Examining the ‘Pathways to Work’ Green Paper 19 March 2025 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg and Louise Murphy Yesterday’s Green Paper marks a serious attempt by the Government to tackle two major concerns: the growing spend on disability benefits, and the large number of people who are not working through ill-health. [1] The proposals to tackle the former go much further than reforms suggested by the previous Government; between 800,000 and 1.2 million … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty Turning the tide What it will take to reduce child poverty in the UK 26 February 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett Ahead of the Government’s Child Poverty Strategy, which promises to bring about “an enduring reduction in child poverty”, this report looks at what might be needed to achieve this welcome goal in the face of significant headwinds. READ MORE
Incomes· Public services Public pivot How a growing state will shape the living standards outlook for 2025 7 January 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites 2025 will be a year with a bigger role for the state. Jeremy Hunt cut taxes in his last two Budgets and planned to pay for them with real-terms cuts to public spending in many areas. READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty Working poverty out The role of employment and progression in a child poverty strategy 6 January 2025 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg The Government is committed to releasing a child poverty strategy later this year. As part of this, Ministers will want to consider how best parental employment can help boost family incomes. But the mid-2020s present a different landscape for child poverty and parental employment from when the last Labour Government crafted its child poverty strategy. … Continued READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Housing· Social security Housing Outlook Q4 2024 7 December 2024 by Alex Clegg and Lindsay Judge Welcome to our final Housing Outlook of 2024. This quarter, we turn our attention to those families with children whose housing costs push them below the poverty line. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Social security Cold comfort Mitigating the Winter Fuel Payment cut 1 October 2024 by Alex Clegg and Jonathan Marshall The announcement that Winter Fuel Payments are to be restricted to recipients of Pension Credit or similar means-tested benefits has sparked controversy. The Government and its defenders point to the lack of sense, in these straitened times, of making fuel payments to all pensioners when the majority do not need them. READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty The Living Standards Outlook 2024 29 August 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett This is our sixth annual Living Standards Outlook. It provides an assessment of incomes, poverty and inequality as things stand in 2024-25, and projections up to 2029-30 using economic forecasts and policy assumptions inherited by the new Government. READ MORE
