Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances We’re going on a growth Hunt Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context 16 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment. READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption The Living Standards Outlook 2023 9 January 2023 by Mike Brewer and Emily Fry and Lalitha Try To deepen our understanding of where the cost of living crisis leaves Britain, our fifth Living Standards Outlook combines a new survey of 10,000 adults’ experience of the crisis with detailed modelling of household incomes and poverty this year and beyond. READ MORE
Universal Credit· Childcare· Welfare Inconsistent Incentives How the overlap between Universal Credit and the High Income Child Benefit Charge limits work incentives 28 December 2022 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Gavin Kelly It is well known that some groups in the UK face high effective tax rates, but the most punitive rates of personal tax arise in a situation that has been almost completely overlooked. Families with an earner on £50,000 to £60,000, whose Child Benefit is withdrawn and who are also eligible for Universal Credit (UC), … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Help today, squeeze tomorrow Putting the 2022 Autumn Statement in context 18 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report presents Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the 2022 Autumn Statement. In the face of grim economic and fiscal forecasts, Jeremy Hunt announced energy support today but tougher times tomorrow, with stealth tax rises for the middle and top of the income distribution followed by spending cuts after the next election. READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Prices & consumption A chilling crisis Policy options to deal with soaring energy prices 25 August 2022 by Mike Brewer and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall This briefing note, released just ahead of the announcement of the winter 2022 energy price cap level, looks at the implications of an unprecedented jump in energy costs on low-to-middle income households, stresses the need for urgent and novel policy thinking to lessen this blow, and outlines how this could take shape. READ MORE
Covid-19· Economy 2030· Cities and regions Right Where You Left Me? Analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on local economies in the UK 11 June 2022 by Mike Brewer and Jack Leslie and Lalitha Try Now that the Covid-19 pandemic is largely behind us, this report, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, considers what might be the long-term impacts of Covid-19 on spatial inequalities across the UK in key economic outcomes. In contrast to the initial fears that Covid could permanently damage our cities (by removing office workers, with the … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Welfare Back on target Analysis of the Government’s additional cost of living support 27 May 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall and Lalitha Try The Chancellor yesterday announced a big and well-targeted package of energy bill support. Of the £15 billion of new measures, almost double that announced earlier in the year, twice as much will go to households in the bottom half of the income distribution as the top half. This fills the gaping hole left by the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Inflation Nation Putting Spring Statement 2022 in context 24 March 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2022 Spring Statement. The Chancellor approached this with the highest inflation in 40 years and the worst income squeeze on record lying ahead of us. Against that backdrop, and with plenty of fiscal ammunition (thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Welfare Social Insecurity Assessing trends in social security to prepare for the decade of change ahead 19 January 2022 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Gavin Kelly and James Smith and Lalitha Try The UK is facing a decade of unprecedented economic change as we adjust to a post-Covid-19 economy, a new economic context outside the European Union (EU), and the decarbonisation of the economy. And the social security system has a key role to play in the years ahead: it is part of the policy toolkit for … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Begin again? Assessing the permanent implications of Covid-19 for the UK’s labour market 23 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy and Hannah Slaughter Covid-19 has had profound impacts on the way that we work. This report, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, considers recent labour market developments with an eye on the longer-term changes, and the resulting challenges for policy makers over the rest of this decade. READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Post-furlough blues What happened to furloughed workers after the end of the Job Retention Scheme? 14 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy Going into the autumn, most official forecasters expected unemployment to be little affected by the ending of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), which closed in September 2021. However, there were still 1.1 million workers on furlough as the scheme ended, skewed towards sectors like aviation that are still far from reaching pre-pandemic levels of … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Welfare Taper cut Analysis of the Autumn Budget changes to Universal Credit 6 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Lalitha Try This briefing note looks at the changes to Universal Credit (UC) – the main benefit for low-income families – made by the Chancellor in the Autumn 2021 Budget. The reduction in the taper rate from 63 to 55 percent, and increase in the work allowance by £500 a year, represent a significant, permanent increase in … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Boris Budget Resolution Foundation analysis of Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 28 October 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review. The Chancellor has unveiled a career-defining third Budget against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and risks. His aim: to draw a line under Covid-19, boost spending in the key priority areas yet also bear down on the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Nationally Insured? New taxes and new spending to address key Department for Health and Social Care priorities 8 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Lindsay Judge and Krishan Shah and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This note assesses the announcements made by the Government on the suspension of the Triple Lock, National Insurance rises, health and social care funding, and public spending totals for the rest of this Parliament made on 7 September 2021. READ MORE
Covid-19 Tackling Covid-19: A case for better financial support to self-isolate 14 May 2021 by Sarah Reed and William Palmer and Mike Brewer and Maja Gustafsson Self-isolation remains vital for curbing Covid-19 transmission, but rates of compliance are worryingly low. This report considers how the Government could further expand financial support for self-isolation so as not to risk undermining the vaccine rollout and exit from lockdown. READ MORE
Covid-19· Welfare In need of support? Lessons from the Covid-19 crisis for our social security system 29 April 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Krishan Shah This briefing note looks at the lessons we have learnt about the UK’s welfare system over the course of the Covid-19 crisis so far, and what those lessons might mean for its future direction. The £111 billion spent so far on supporting incomes during the pandemic should remind us of the importance of welfare systems. … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Public spending The 12-month stretch Where the Government has delivered – and where it has failed – during the Covid-19 crisis 18 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer This note explores the big picture of how policy makers have responded to the pandemic over the past 12 months, taking a step back to explore what they have done, and what that has done to health and economic outcomes. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spending fast, taxing slow Resolution Foundation analysis of Budget 2021 4 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2021 Budget. The context for this Budget was an intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic, creating a need for further policy measures to support families and firms in the months before the completion of the vaccine rollout. In response, the Chancellor announced significant … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Universal Credit· Welfare Half-measures The Chancellor’s options for Universal Credit in the Budget 19 February 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb The Government has still to decide on whether to continue the £20 per week uplift to Universal Credit (UC) and Working Tax Credit (WTC), due to expire in just 45 days. There are suggestions the Chancellor will opt for a halfway house of keeping the uplift for six months. Compared to the pencilled-in default of … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Household debt· Welfare The debts that divide us Flash findings from a survey of families claiming Universal Credit 7 February 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb The surge in claims for Universal Credit (UC) when the pandemic first hit means that UC caseloads are now about twice as high as they were pre-pandemic, with over half of all single parents now in receipt of UC. About 60 per cent of the current caseload have newly-claimed UC during 2020, and the fraction … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The Living Standards Outlook 2021 18 January 2021 by Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Daniel Tomlinson In the Living Standards Outlook, we assess how the hoped-for post-pandemic economic recovery might translate into a recovery for living standards. Focusing on working-age households, we provide projections for household disposable incomes across the income distribution through to 2024-25. READ MORE
Covid-19· Living standards Pandemic Pressures Why families on a low income are spending more during Covid-19 11 January 2021 by Mike Brewer and Ruth Patrick Household spending has fallen during the Covid-19 pandemic, but not for many of those on the lowest incomes. This note brings together data from representative surveys with vivid accounts from parents and carers participating in the ‘Covid Realities’ research programme to explore the reasons behind, and consequences of, the cost pressures that many have faced since the pandemic began. READ MORE
Covid-19 Time out Reforming Statutory Sick Pay to support the Covid-19 recovery phase 8 December 2020 by Mike Brewer and Maja Gustafsson In a pandemic, sick pay should play a crucial public health role, as well as providing income protection. But the UK’s Statutory Sick Pay is low by international standards, and misses out two million of our lowest-paid workers. Evidence suggests that this contributes to the low level of compliance with the legal obligation to self-isolate … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Jobs, jobs, jobs Evaluating the effects of the current economic crisis on the UK labour market 27 October 2020 by Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Kathleen Henehan and Charlie McCurdy and Rukmen Sehmi and Hannah Slaughter This report highlights which groups of workers have struggled the most as the coronavirus crisis has evolved, who is at risk as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme is replaced by the Job Support Scheme, and the prospects for the future. READ MORE
Covid-19· Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2020 7 October 2020 by Laura Gardiner and Maja Gustafsson and Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Fahmida Rahman This Intergenerational Audit for the UK – supported by the Nuffield Foundation – provides the first comprehensive assessment of the initial phase of the coronavirus crisis for different generations in Britain. READ MORE
