Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Stairway to headroom Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 27 November 2025 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor’s second tax-rising budget arrived under dark clouds, but forecasts came in better than feared. But even though she was saved from the worst predictions of past weeks, the Chancellor still faced a tough task to clear three big hurdles – fixing the public finances, easing the cost of living squeeze on families, and taxing smartly and fairly. This briefing note argues that she did clear these hurdles, albeit not flawlessly. She scraped over … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Black holes and consolidations Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025 4 November 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Elliott Christensen and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and James Smith This make-or-break Budget is set to include significant spending cuts and tax rises spurred by a significant deterioration in the public finances. So, in this briefing note we discuss how the outlook has changed since the Spring Statement and set out how the Chancellor should respond. READ MORE
Pensions & savings Revisiting the State Pension age Resolution Foundation submission to the 2025 State Pension age review 1 November 2025 by Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and David Willetts The previous Government proposed that the State Pension age should rise such that people spend “up to one-third” of adult life in receipt of the State Pension. Subsequent consideration of setting the State Pension age has been heavily influenced by this focus on life expectancy. However, there are many other factors to be considered in setting the State Pension age. It is very welcome that the terms of reference for the review include a range of other factors. One key consideration in this, as with all major policy decisions, is budgetary constraints. READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2025 22 October 2025 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. These … Continued READ MORE
Health and disability False starts What the UK’s growing NEETs problem really looks like, and how to fix it 21 October 2025 by Julia Diniz and Louise Murphy Nearly one million young people are now NEET (not in education, employment or training). Tackling this crisis requires stronger enforcement of participation requirements for 16-17-year-olds and an expanded Youth Guarantee offering all 18-24-year-olds real pathways into work or study. READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market Opening doors How to incentivise employers to create more opportunities for disabled workers 24 July 2025 by Ben Baumberg Geiger and Louise Murphy Improving employment outcomes for disabled people is essential not just for raising living standards, but also for supporting economic growth. To increase the employment of disabled people, the report proposes a new employer-focused strategy built on four principles: reimbursement, reporting, reintegration and recruitment. READ MORE
Health and disability· Welfare The good, the bad and the messy Responding to the Pathways to Work Green Paper consultation 30 June 2025 by Louise Murphy This week marks an important moment for this Government’s welfare reform plans: as Parliament prepares to vote on major legislation to make cuts to PIP and UC-Health, the consultation on longer-term changes to the benefits system, set out in the Pathways to Work Green Paper, also closes. There are some good proposals included in the … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Welfare No workaround Assessing the impact of the Spring 2025 disability and incapacity benefit reforms on employment 20 May 2025 by Louise Murphy and Greg Thwaites In March, the Government released its Pathways to Work Green Paper, setting out a package of welfare reforms that amounted to a net reduction in spending of £4.8 billion in 2029-30. On the Government’s own figures, 3.2 million families will lose out, 250,000 people will fall into poverty, and 700,000 families will fall further below the poverty line. These benefit cuts were accompanied by a significant increase in employment support costing a cumulative £1.9 billion between 2026-27 and 2029-30 but with over half of that not coming until the final year. READ MORE
Universal Credit· Health and disability A dangerous road? Examining the ‘Pathways to Work’ Green Paper 19 March 2025 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg and Louise Murphy Yesterday’s Green Paper marks a serious attempt by the Government to tackle two major concerns: the growing spend on disability benefits, and the large number of people who are not working through ill-health. [1] The proposals to tackle the former go much further than reforms suggested by the previous Government; between 800,000 and 1.2 million … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The headroom bind Spring Statement 2025 preview 17 March 2025 by James Smith and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Spring Statement, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of this key economic-policy event. We focus on the news since the Autumn Budget and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. READ MORE
Health and disability· Welfare Delivering the undeliverable Five principles to guide policy makers through reforming incapacity and disability benefits 6 March 2025 by Louise Murphy The Government is set to announce a “radical” Green Paper on health-related benefit reform this Spring, and more immediate benefit cuts are expected ahead of the Spring Statement on 26 March. The backdrop is fast-rising spending on working-age health-related benefits: spending is set to rise by £32bn between 2019-20 and 2029-30, from 1.3% to 2.2% … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Public pivot How a growing state will shape the living standards outlook for 2025 7 January 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites 2025 will be a year with a bigger role for the state. Jeremy Hunt cut taxes in his last two Budgets and planned to pay for them with real-terms cuts to public spending in many areas. Rachel Reeves’s October Budget reversed these plans, pivoting to increasing spending on public services as a share of the … Continued READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Labour market A hard day’s night The labour market experience of low-to-middle income families 12 December 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report describes the labour market experiences of low-to-middle income families and how these have changed over the past quarter century. It explores those families’ employment, pay, experiences at work, and their feelings about changing jobs and progressing in work. READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Living standards· Demographics Unsung Britain The changing economic circumstances of the poorer half of Britain 13 November 2024 by Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try This report marks the launch of Unsung Britain, a one-year research programme designed to understand the economic circumstances of today’s low-to-middle income families and how these have changed in recent decades, with support from JPMorganChase. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2024 23 October 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. These … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Cutbacks ahead Considering the impact of proposed changes to disability benefits on living standards and the public finances 13 October 2024 by Mike Brewer and Louise Murphy The Chancellor has already come under pressure for making one welfare cut to help her address the challenging fiscal outlook in the run up to her first Budget – but there are more in store due to spending commitments inherited from the previous Government. Specifically, if the Government goes ahead with changes to the Work … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Skills Labour Market Outlook Q3 2024 The Growth and Skills Levy 28 September 2024 by Sofia Corcoran and Louise Murphy In its first few months in office, the new Labour Government has announced a host of new skills policies. READ MORE
Welfare Growing pressures Exploring trends in children’s disability benefits 17 August 2024 by Louise Murphy Over the last decade, the number of under-16s in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) in England and Wales has doubled, reaching 682,000 in 2023, equivalent to one-in-sixteen children. This growing caseload has been driven almost entirely by awards made to children whose main condition is either a learning difficulty, behavioural disorder or attention deficit … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Public spending· Welfare Under strain Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits 20 June 2024 by Lindsay Judge and Louise Murphy The benefits bill is frequently the subject of intense political debate. But since the pandemic, working-age health-related benefits have moved centre-stage in these discussions, as policy makers aim to understand what sits behind the historical rise in claims, and to contain future pressures too. In this briefing note – part of our Election 2024 work … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections The narrow path to NICs cuts Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Conservative Manifesto 12 June 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emma Beale and Molly Broome and Lindsay Judge and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Lalitha Try The launch of the Conservative manifesto is a big moment in this election campaign. The strategy here was clear: treble down on National Insurance (NI) rate cuts. The continued focus on NI is welcome, at least compared to the alternatives, and delivers significant cuts in tax for some, with the proposed 2p reduction delivering a … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Health and disability A U-shaped legacy Taking stock of trends in economic inactivity in 2024 23 March 2024 by Louise Murphy In an election year, jobs and benefits are often centre stage. Alongside the UK’s stagnant wage growth, there is one big issue that will face the next government: the rises in economic inactivity and health-related benefit claims. Real pay growth, unemployment and vacancies have all returned roughly to 2019 rates. But there is one aspect … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Labour market· Skills· Health and disability We’ve only just begun Action to improve young people’s mental health, education and employment 26 February 2024 by Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy The transition to adulthood is a tumultuous time: leaving education, entering the labour market, living independent of family and managing one’s finances all come with their stresses and strains. But this crucial part of the life course can be especially challenging for young people with mental health problems who are more likely to struggle in … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Low pay· Living Wage Narrowing the youth gap Exploring the impact of changes to the minimum wage on the incidence of low pay among young people 20 December 2023 by Louise Murphy and Esiri Bukata In the Autumn Statement last month, the Chancellor announced big changes to the minimum wage. Alongside the announcement that the adult-rate minimum wage (the ‘National Living Wage’, or NLW) will increase by 10 per cent in April 2024, there were two important changes relating to the minimum wage rates that apply to young people. First, … Continued READ MORE
