Wellbeing and mental health· Welfare The good, the bad and the messy Responding to the Pathways to Work Green Paper consultation 30 June 2025 by Louise Murphy This week marks an important moment for this Government’s welfare reform plans: as Parliament prepares to vote on major legislation to make cuts to PIP and UC-Health, the consultation on longer-term changes to the benefits system, set out in the Pathways to Work Green Paper, also closes. There are some good proposals included in the … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Welfare No workaround Assessing the impact of the Spring 2025 disability and incapacity benefit reforms on employment 20 May 2025 by Louise Murphy and Greg Thwaites In March, the Government released its Pathways to Work Green Paper, setting out a package of welfare reforms that amounted to a net reduction in spending of £4.8 billion in 2029-30. On the Government’s own figures, 3.2 million families will lose out, 250,000 people will fall into poverty, and 700,000 families will fall further below the poverty line. These benefit cuts were accompanied by a significant increase in employment support costing a cumulative £1.9 billion between 2026-27 and 2029-30 but with over half of that not coming until the final year. READ MORE
Universal Credit· Wellbeing and mental health A dangerous road? Examining the ‘Pathways to Work’ Green Paper 19 March 2025 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg and Louise Murphy Yesterday’s Green Paper marks a serious attempt by the Government to tackle two major concerns: the growing spend on disability benefits, and the large number of people who are not working through ill-health. [1] The proposals to tackle the former go much further than reforms suggested by the previous Government; between 800,000 and 1.2 million … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The headroom bind Spring Statement 2025 preview 17 March 2025 by James Smith and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Spring Statement, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of this key economic-policy event. We focus on the news since the Autumn Budget and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. READ MORE
Wellbeing and mental health· Welfare Delivering the undeliverable Five principles to guide policy makers through reforming incapacity and disability benefits 6 March 2025 by Louise Murphy The Government is set to announce a “radical” Green Paper on health-related benefit reform this Spring, and more immediate benefit cuts are expected ahead of the Spring Statement on 26 March. The backdrop is fast-rising spending on working-age health-related benefits: spending is set to rise by £32bn between 2019-20 and 2029-30, from 1.3% to 2.2% … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Public pivot How a growing state will shape the living standards outlook for 2025 7 January 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites 2025 will be a year with a bigger role for the state. Jeremy Hunt cut taxes in his last two Budgets and planned to pay for them with real-terms cuts to public spending in many areas. Rachel Reeves’s October Budget reversed these plans, pivoting to increasing spending on public services as a share of the … Continued READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Labour market A hard day’s night The labour market experience of low-to-middle income families 12 December 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report describes the labour market experiences of low-to-middle income families and how these have changed over the past quarter century. It explores those families’ employment, pay, experiences at work, and their feelings about changing jobs and progressing in work. READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Demographics· Living standards Unsung Britain The changing economic circumstances of the poorer half of Britain 13 November 2024 by Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try This report marks the launch of Unsung Britain, a one-year research programme designed to understand the economic circumstances of today’s low-to-middle income families and how these have changed in recent decades, with support from JPMorganChase. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2024 23 October 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. These … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Cutbacks ahead Considering the impact of proposed changes to disability benefits on living standards and the public finances 13 October 2024 by Mike Brewer and Louise Murphy The Chancellor has already come under pressure for making one welfare cut to help her address the challenging fiscal outlook in the run up to her first Budget – but there are more in store due to spending commitments inherited from the previous Government. Specifically, if the Government goes ahead with changes to the Work … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Skills Labour Market Outlook Q3 2024 The Growth and Skills Levy 28 September 2024 by Sofia Corcoran and Louise Murphy In its first few months in office, the new Labour Government has announced a host of new skills policies. [1] Arguably the most high-profile of these is the planned new “flexible” Growth and Skills Levy, replacing the previous Government’s Apprenticeship Levy. There are good reasons to consider changing the Levy: apprenticeships aren’t currently doing a … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Growing pressures Exploring trends in children’s disability benefits 17 August 2024 by Louise Murphy Over the last decade, the number of under-16s in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) in England and Wales has doubled, reaching 682,000 in 2023, equivalent to one-in-sixteen children. This growing caseload has been driven almost entirely by awards made to children whose main condition is either a learning difficulty, behavioural disorder or attention deficit … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Public spending· Welfare Under strain Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits 20 June 2024 by Lindsay Judge and Louise Murphy The benefits bill is frequently the subject of intense political debate. But since the pandemic, working-age health-related benefits have moved centre-stage in these discussions, as policy makers aim to understand what sits behind the historical rise in claims, and to contain future pressures too. In this briefing note – part of our Election 2024 work … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections The narrow path to NICs cuts Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Conservative Manifesto 12 June 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emma Beale and Molly Broome and Lindsay Judge and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Lalitha Try The launch of the Conservative manifesto is a big moment in this election campaign. The strategy here was clear: treble down on National Insurance (NI) rate cuts. The continued focus on NI is welcome, at least compared to the alternatives, and delivers significant cuts in tax for some, with the proposed 2p reduction delivering a … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health A U-shaped legacy Taking stock of trends in economic inactivity in 2024 23 March 2024 by Louise Murphy In an election year, jobs and benefits are often centre stage. Alongside the UK’s stagnant wage growth, there is one big issue that will face the next government: the rises in economic inactivity and health-related benefit claims. Real pay growth, unemployment and vacancies have all returned roughly to 2019 rates. But there is one aspect … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Labour market· Skills· Wellbeing and mental health We’ve only just begun Action to improve young people’s mental health, education and employment 26 February 2024 by Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy The transition to adulthood is a tumultuous time: leaving education, entering the labour market, living independent of family and managing one’s finances all come with their stresses and strains. But this crucial part of the life course can be especially challenging for young people with mental health problems who are more likely to struggle in … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Low pay· Living Wage Narrowing the youth gap Exploring the impact of changes to the minimum wage on the incidence of low pay among young people 20 December 2023 by Louise Murphy and Esiri Bukata In the Autumn Statement last month, the Chancellor announced big changes to the minimum wage. Alongside the announcement that the adult-rate minimum wage (the ‘National Living Wage’, or NLW) will increase by 10 per cent in April 2024, there were two important changes relating to the minimum wage rates that apply to young people. First, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Preparing the pitch Autumn Statement 2023 preview 6 November 2023 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2023 24 October 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage (LW) rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Learning to grow How to situate a skills strategy in an economic strategy 24 October 2023 by Rui Costa and Sandra McNally and Guglielmo Ventura and Louise Murphy and Anna Valero Investing in human capital is a crucial aspect of building an economy that is both more productive and fairer, and any growth strategy must incorporate an agenda for increasing human capital and workforce skills within that. So how should we approach the task of developing a skills strategy that complements a broader economic strategy? In … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare Rates of change The impact of a below-inflation uprating on working-age benefits 14 October 2023 by Lindsay Judge and Louise Murphy NB – this briefing has been updated following the publication of the ONS prices data for September 2023. The CPI inflation figure for September (6.7 per cent) is the basis on which key working-age benefits are normally uprated in the following April. But with the public finances under real pressure, and prices expected to … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Living standards· Incomes· Economic growth From safety net to springboard Designing an unemployment insurance scheme to protect living standards and boost economic dynamism 21 September 2023 by Mike Brewer and Louise Murphy Losing your job in Britain is a very risky business. Low levels of out-of-work benefits are rarely an adequate safety net for those who experience job loss, and workers in the UK who move out of work are at greater risk of experiencing a large income loss than those in most other OECD countries. Some … Continued READ MORE
