Incomes· Trade Britain has enjoyed a mini living standards boom – so why did we vote for change? 29 January 2017 by Torsten Bell The living standards story of last year was record employment, a higher minimum wage and the strongest income growth for a decade. Britain’s never had it so moderately okay. What’s more inequality was either flat or falling – poorer households did better than most. But the democracy story was a Brexit vote for big change … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Work Jobs, the rise of Trump and the dangers of fatalism 23 January 2017 by Torsten Bell Even for those not based in the US, it’s been hard to avoid a long weekend of an inauguration, marches, facts and alternative facts. But today Donald Trump settles into “his first business day” (for those counting there’s at least a little over 1,000 of those to come), and jobs are top of his agenda. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Work· Growth· Cities and regions Can a new generation of political leaders tackle Britain’s regional inequalities? 20 January 2017 by Stephen Clarke 2017 will see the UK begin its departure from the European Union. However, as the UK seeks to shed some politicians in Brussels, we will be getting some new ones at home. Greater Manchester, Liverpool, Tees, West Midlands, Bristol and Bath, and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough will all go to the polls to elect mayors and … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Incomes· Savings & debt Consumer borrowing is up. But will it last, and should we be concerned? 12 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing is increasing at its fastest rate in 11 years. As the chart below shows, outstanding debts (excluding mortgages and student loans) rose by 10.8 per cent in November 2016 – faster than any time since October 2005. This surge has inevitably prompted concerns that the UK is heading back down the path of … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty Inequality has reached a 30-year low. So should we still care? 10 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker The joke goes that in the pub quizzes of the future, the answer to every question that starts “in what year…” will be 2016. But it’s likely that few will correctly identify that 2016 was also the year in which household income inequality fell to its lowest post-Thatcher level. Yet, thanks to a combination of … Continued READ MORE
Work· Generations Is the gender pay gap on the brink of closure for young women today? 4 January 2017 by Laura Gardiner A common challenge to those – like us – who spend time voicing our concerns about the lot of today’s younger generation is a simple question: would you rather be born in 1960 or 1990? The argument runs that even millennials on modest incomes have smartphones that a boomer could only have dreamed of at … Continued READ MORE
Housing Resolving to fill the housing ‘aspiration gap’ 3 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker New Year look-aheads are always a risky endeavour, and the level of uncertainty facing the UK economy at the start of 2017 means that the danger of looking foolish is even more elevated this time around. But we can be sure of one thing at least: our obsession with housing will show no sign of … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations Happy 70th, baby-boomer – but it’s the young who need the gifts 1 January 2017 by David Willetts This is the year the world turns 30. The world has been very young for a long time. The middle person in the global population has been in their twenties since 1950, when reliable records began, but the figure is on a steady upward trend and this year the world’s median age will probably go … Continued READ MORE
Work A-typical year? 30 December 2016 by Laura Gardiner Atypical is an apt word for describing 2016. From the celebrity death rate to decisions at the ballot box in the UK and America that are fundamentally reshaping politics, there’s a definite sense of disruption. And so it was in the labour market. Granted, 2016 wasn’t the year when atypical working patterns broke into the … Continued READ MORE
Housing Only half of families own their own home – how do the other half live? 27 December 2016 by Lindsay Judge and Adam Corlett While the received wisdom is that home ownership has fallen to 64 per cent over the last decade, is that a fair reflection of the real world? Do around two in three of us really own our home? Conventional rates of home ownership may offer a misleading picture as they only tell us the proportion … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Housing· Generations Mind the representation gap 22 December 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson We’ve heard a lot about fairness between the generations recently. Housing is normally the issue at hand. After all, home ownership is becoming an ever more distant dream for a growing number of millennials. As a result, twenty somethings are now spending £44,000 more on rent during their 20s than the baby boomers did. And … Continued READ MORE
Incomes 2016 deserves a better press on living standards – we’ll miss it when it’s gone 21 December 2016 by Torsten Bell 2016 is getting a bad press. The reasons are many and varied, crossing from the tragic to the frivolous. Syria, Berlin, Zika, Prince/Bowie, Trump, and (for some) Brexit – all get included in the charge sheet. But on living standards at least we may well come to look back at 2016 with fond nostalgia – … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty Rich world problems are irrelevant across most of the country, but poverty matters throughout Britain 20 December 2016 by Stephen Clarke On Friday the ONS, publisher of official statistics, released some “NOT official” statistics on people’s incomes for every local authority in England and Wales. This is pretty exciting stuff but before I outline some of the key findings from the data, the ONS require I make clear that: These Research Outputs are NOT official statistics … Continued READ MORE
Work How did firms pay for the big pay rise in 2016? Through productivity and price rises, not job losses 20 December 2016 by Conor D’Arcy 2016 marked the introduction of a big, controversial new player on the political economy scene, whose influence is set to grow and grow over the next four years. No, this isn’t a blog about President-Elect Trump. For millions of low earners across the UK, another development has had an even bigger impact. The National Living … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Growth· Cities and regions Revving up the Midlands engine 15 December 2016 by Conor D’Arcy The Midlands Engine could use some oil. That’s the conclusion drawn from this morning’s statistics on regional growth. While 2015 did bring respectable growth to the West Midlands city region with Birmingham and in particular Solihull – the fastest growing local authority in the country – performing well, it also makes the scale of the … Continued READ MORE
Work Is agency work the forgotten face of the UK’s modern workforce? 6 December 2016 by Lindsay Judge We hear a lot these days about the ‘gig economy’ and zero-hours contracts. But agency work is just as prevalent and barely gets a mention. Is it the forgotten face of the UK’s modern workforce? To be fair, agency workers gained some prominence in the summer when Sports Direct agreed to address the various wrongs … Continued READ MORE
Housing Who is feeling the fullest force of the housing crisis? 30 November 2016 by Lindsay Judge We’ve written recently about how rising housing costs are acting as a headwind, holding back improvements in living standards for many households in the UK today. But who is feeling the fullest force of the housing crisis? Which types of households are most likely to be living in unaffordable housing today and how has this … Continued READ MORE
Work Prepare for a pay squeeze as big as in the 1810s 25 November 2016 by Conor D’Arcy The early 21st century doesn’t have too much in common – thankfully – with the war-torn early 19th century (Although a global superpower was headed by a man of dubious temperament). But Autumn Statement 2016 and the first official projections of the impact of Brexit on the UK’s economy added an unfortunate new connection. If … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Incomes· Public finances Theresa May needs to spread the jam more thickly 25 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Since taking office in July, Theresa May has made it clear that she wants to put the ‘just about managing’ – those working families struggling to get by – at the heart of her government’s agenda. Yet Wednesday’s Autumn Statement, which provided the first opportunity for setting out a package of support, proved less jam-packed … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The Autumn Statement debate has focused on the public finances – but the impact on family Budgets is just as stark 24 November 2016 by Torsten Bell Yesterday’s discussion of the Chancellor’s first (and last) Autumn Statement understandably focused on the very significant increase in borrowing that the first official take on the economic impact of the decision to leave the EU unveiled. In short the Office for Budget Responsibility thinks the Brexit vote is expensive – coming with a price tag … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Resolution Foundation reaction to Autumn Statement 2016 23 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker £59bn impact of Brexit and Chancellor’s decision to increase investment spending drive £122bn extra borrowing Philip Hammond chooses not to support just about managing families who face a double whammy of lower earnings and benefit cuts Slower growth and higher inflation will mean higher borrowing and a parliament of falling living standards for millions – … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Trade The big picture tomorrow will be about the consequences of Brexit, but don’t forget its causes 22 November 2016 by Torsten Bell Like bad pop music, there is a predictable rhythm to all Budgets and Autumn Statements. That’s partly about the theatre on the day – a photo outside Number 11, Chancellor’s statement in the Commons (including the rabbit out of a hat announcement) and the opposition’s response (usually involving shooting foxes and recently Communist book club … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Tax· Generations Inheritances and gifts: The generational challenge facing the Chancellor at this week’s Autumn Statement 21 November 2016 by Laura Gardiner When setting out the challenges facing younger generations – from the hit to pay they’ve suffered post-crisis to the diminishing opportunities to match the housing or pension wealth their parents have– we are often told that it will all be ok once they get their hands on their inheritances. The truth is of course more … Continued READ MORE
Work Four decades of discontent Trumps a strong 2015 for US jobs and pay in the race to the White House 9 November 2016 by Torsten Bell Election post-mortems are dangerous things. Nearly as dangerous as elections themselves for the mental well-being of those involved. The biggest danger follows election results that few predicted – where immediate post-mortems suddenly involve people seeing with total clarity why the unexpected was always on the cards. So let’s start with some humility about what we … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The Chancellor can use the tough economic backdrop to his Autumn Statement to make his mark on the direction of government 4 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker A new Chancellor’s first fiscal statement is always a big deal, but the relish with which they approach it inevitably depends on the circumstances underpinning their arrival. Those entering Number 11 off the back of election victory – with a fresh mandate in hand – have the opportunity to set a clear tone for the … Continued READ MORE
