Public finances· Political parties and elections How do the main parties’ fiscal policies compare? 25 May 2017 by Adam Corlett The parties’ manifestos cover a lot of ground. But what would their fiscal policies mean for the country? As we set out in an earlier report, boring-sounding rules about the deficit matter hugely for the country’s public debt trajectory, the parties’ delivery of services and tax and benefit policies, and for accommodating coming demographic challenges. … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work Migration and the past, present and future of the British labour market 25 May 2017 by Stephen Clarke Today we got another major clue into what’s been happening to migration since the referendum and, how it might evolve as we negotiate our exit from the EU. Looking first to the migration story of the recent past, in the year to December 2016 net migration was down by 84,000 to 248,000 compared to 2015. … Continued READ MORE
Housing Looking for house and home 25 May 2017 by Lindsay Judge You can normally get a good feel for changing political priorities by tracking how often the parties refer to particular issues over time. Search for ‘house’ and ‘home’ in the manifestos of the two main parties and, as Figure 1 shows, in 2001 neither term got much of a look-in. Today, even when we strip … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions When it comes to living standards, geography matters 24 May 2017 by Matthew Whittaker A slowdown in economic growth and the recent return of the pay squeeze has focused attention once again on the extent to which absolute living standard improvements have stalled across UK households since the financial crisis of 2008. But the distribution of gains and losses matters too – especially in the context of a vote … Continued READ MORE
Work· Social security· Political parties and elections The Prime Minister changes direction on social care. But will the cap fit? 24 May 2017 by Laura Gardiner Big election announcements on social care have a habit of coming back to bite you. As we pointed out in our reaction to the Conservative manifesto last week, proposals floated at the end of the last Labour government’s term for an estate tax were proclaimed a ‘death tax’ by the opposition. That tag has hamstrung … Continued READ MORE
Work· Political parties and elections Election 2017: What jobs do UK workers actually do? 23 May 2017 by Laura Gardiner Politicians of all parties spend election campaigns fighting for the votes of what they call “ordinary” or “hardworking” people. And with record numbers of people in work in the UK, there are more of us that fit into that category than ever before. But what exactly do the UK’s workers do and what might be … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Political parties and elections Home ownership for young families has halved in West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester and Outer London since the 1990s 19 May 2017 by Lindsay Judge The phrase ‘housing crisis’ is rarely off politicians’ lips these days as they increasingly recognise that the cost of a home – to buy and to rent – plays a key role in determining living standards. And quite right too as new Resolution Foundation analysis shows that the crisis is both acute and widely felt. … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Tax· Generations· Political parties and elections Death taxes, the Conservative manifesto, and the changing politics of intergenerational fairness 18 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Today we got sight of the Conservative Party’s Theresa May’s manifesto. Just two short years since the last Tory manifesto was presented to the British public, this 2017 offering is a very different beast. The personality shift is all too obvious as Mayism well and truly buries the Cameron/Osborne era of combining rhetorical focus on … Continued READ MORE
Incomes For low income families, the next four years could be worse than the recession 16 May 2017 by Adam Corlett Will households be better off in 2020 than in 2016? And who will fare best? Economic predictions are always uncertain, particularly as we embark on the long process of negotiating just what Brexit really means. But the official Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts for pay, prices and employment are as comprehensive as it gets, and … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Political parties and elections Labour’s manifesto: let’s focus on the big choices not the small change 16 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Labour’s manifesto is a big deal, in the simple sense that it has a lot of stuff in it. Nationalising this, nationalising that. Scrapping tuition fees. Borrowing billions for investment. Higher taxes, from corporation tax to financial transactions and on those earning over £80,000. More spending on health, social care, schools, and childcare. Oh, and … Continued READ MORE
Work· Political parties and elections A history lesson: from pay packets to election results 15 May 2017 by Torsten Bell This is a very odd election. Conservatives talking about building, rather than selling, council homes. Tony Blair and Jeremy Corbyn sharing a campaign slogan. Stepping back from the campaign itself, even the existence of the election is an odd bit of political economy for one big reason: a British Prime Minister has chosen to go … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Political parties and elections Walking the walk on backing low and middle income households 12 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Manifestos matter. Not so much because they change the results of elections (they don’t). They matter both because they do determine much of what parties do when they actually win, and because they tell you a lot about where a party stands at a given point in time – what they see the big challenges facing … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Growth Whose recovery is this? 11 May 2017 by Stephen Clarke Much has been written about the success of the UK economy recently. Last year the country was (almost) the fastest growing economy in the G7 and confounded expectations that the vote to leave the European Union would cause an economic slowdown if not outright recession. And yet, in many parts of the country this tale … Continued READ MORE
Work The evidence is mounting that Zero Hours Contracts have reached their peak 11 May 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson What happens when unemployment is at a close to 40 year low, as it is in the UK today? Economic textbooks tells you that pay pressures mount. But that is not happening – instead a pay squeeze has returned in 2017. Instead, it looks as if more competition for jobs might just be pushing up … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Public finances Put your crocs away, but get your calculators out – we still need to talk about the deficit 11 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Fashions come and fashions go, in politics as on the catwalk. One minute an issue looks like it’s the only thing that matters, and the next no-politician wants to mention it. As this general election rolls on the thing that is becoming ever clearer is that the fiscal deficit is the British political equivalent of … Continued READ MORE
Tax· Political parties and elections Let’s talk about tax 6 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Something unusual is happening in this general election campaign. Everyone is talking about raising taxes. Last Sunday Theresa May told Britain she wouldn’t be repeating David Cameron’s mistake of ruling out ever raising any of National Insurance, income tax or VAT. Before that Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, had hinted that people earning over £70-£80,000 … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Generations Older people on lower incomes are being ignored 4 May 2017 by Torsten Bell To triple lock or not to triple lock (the state pension). Who has a secret tax bombshell ready for hard working families? It’s not just the rows that are being repeated in what feels something like an election on autopilot, it’s also the groups of voters that the parties are focusing on: pensioners and the … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth· Cities and regions No more robot wars in London 2 May 2017 by Torsten Bell “The robots are coming to take our jobs”, the Evening Standard told Londoners in December 2016. In case that didn’t depress their readers enough, the article went on to spell out the coming doom: “The sheer pace of change in computational power and grinding efficiencies of automation will alter or eliminate many of our jobs, … Continued READ MORE
Cities and regions· Political parties and elections Bored of Brexit? Don’t switch off from the election just yet 21 April 2017 by Torsten Bell The Prime Minister called an election, and told the country it was an election about delivering Brexit. Financial markets and most commentators agreed, focusing their responses on what a surprise vote on 8th June might mean for the shape Brexit takes. But before everyone, leavers and remainers combined, who can’t think of anything worse than … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Work· Cities and regions We can work it out? The jobs challenge facing the Liverpool City Region’s mayor 20 April 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Although June’s election will dominate the headlines over the next month and a half, voters in some of England’s biggest cities will go to the polls in two weeks to elect Metro Mayors. Like all the city regions voting on a Mayor, the Liverpool City Region (LCR) – comprised of the local authorities of Halton, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Work· Cities and regions Tees-ing out the issues 18 April 2017 by Stephen Clarke On 4 May voters in the Tees Valley will go to the polls to elect the region’s first ‘Metro Mayor’. He or she will wield new, if limited, powers affecting the whole region. But more important, in many ways, than the specific hard power of decisions the new mayor can directly control is the opportunity … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty Uneven reports on inequality 15 April 2017 by Torsten Bell Jeremy says it is racing away. Theresa says it is falling. They can’t both be right, and in fact they’re both wrong. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have an inequality problem British inequality is like bad music: It’s all about the 1980s The gap between the rich and poor hasn’t moved that much in the … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Social security· Mobility A wider range of subjects? 13 April 2017 by David Finch Today Justine Greening is giving a speech about education and specifically the attainment of children from low and middle income families. The reaction to the speech will focus on the rights (not many) and wrongs (many) of grammar schools, but that should not wholly drown out some very welcome data work released by the Department … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Social security· Tax The government’s £1bn tax and benefit giveaway will leave poorer households worse off 2 April 2017 by David Finch The arrival of April heralds a new financial year, but one that doesn’t bring with it the usual inflation-linked increases in tax thresholds and benefit rates. The former are set to rise faster than inflation – providing a tax cut for those earning more than £11,100 – while the latter continue to be frozen in … Continued READ MORE
Work It’s no April Fools’ Day for those on the National Living Wage 1 April 2017 by Conor D’Arcy In a year in which fake news has been a recurring theme, every day has felt a bit like April Fools’ Day. When it comes to the National Living Wage (NLW) however, while there might be some trickery over its name – when is a living wage not a living wage? – there’s no confusion … Continued READ MORE
