Summer Economic Update July 2020

Resolution Foundation overnight analysis

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This was not a Budget, but was still a big deal with £30bn of measures to support the economy. This is particularly significant when seen in combination with £160bn of pandemic-related support already announced, leaving borrowing this year on course to reach £350bn. Debt interest costs will continue to fall, although the crisis will leave … Continued

Lockdown living

Housing quality across the generations

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For three months, the majority of the population has ‘stayed home to save lives’, bringing the quality of our housing stock and neighbourhoods into sharp relief. In this briefing note, we explore how long-term housing trends have resulted in significant gaps between generations when it comes to living conditions. As we face the prospect of further local or national lockdowns going into the winter months, we argue the inequalities we uncover demand attention from policy makers more than ever before.

The Full Monty

Facing up to the challenge of the coronavirus labour market crisis

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The coronavirus crisis has had a severe impact on the country’s health, but also its economy and the labour market with it. With activity across parts of the economy heavily restricted, the Job Retention Scheme saved millions of jobs, firms and incomes. But as the country moves from lockdown into a new, reopening phase of … Continued

Locked in?

The triple lock on the State Pension in light of the coronavirus crisis

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It is well known that the triple lock on the State Pension – which states that it rises each year by the highest of earnings growth, inflation and 2.5 per cent – makes its value dependent not just on the general pace of growth in prices and wages, but also on their volatility. The next … Continued

Rainy days

An audit of household wealth and the initial effects of the coronavirus crisis on saving and spending in Great Britain

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Families in Great Britain are faced with the most severe economic contraction in more than 100 years. Much of the immediate focus among policy makers has been on the size and distribution of falls in families’ incomes but household wealth, both savings and debt, will play a hugely important role in shaping how far families’ … Continued

Local differences

Responding to the local economic impact of coronavirus

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Britain’s jobs crisis has hit every part of the country hard. At a headline regional level, job loss and furloughing has been fairly evenly spread. But increases in unemployment-related benefit claims have been larger in areas that started out with higher claimant rates, with this especially true when we focus at a more local level. … Continued

Return to spender

Findings on family incomes and spending from the Resolution Foundation’s coronavirus survey

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Based on the Resolution Foundation’s new coronavirus survey of 6,000 working-age adults, this briefing note explores family spending during the crisis, with a focus on how outcomes have differed across the working-age income distribution.

A new settlement for the low paid

Beyond the minimum wage to dignity and respect

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This crisis is shared, but its burden is not. From health risks to job losses, it is the UK’s 4.2 million low-paid workers on whom this pandemic has imposed the greatest cost, and of whom the efforts to combat it have required the greatest sacrifice. Lower earners are three times as likely to have lost … Continued

Coping with housing costs during the coronavirus crisis

Flash findings from the Resolution Foundation’s coronavirus survey

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Many (including us) have speculated about how families may be managing their housing costs during the coronavirus crisis. In this spotlight we move from conjecture to firm evidence, presenting findings from our new survey of UK working-age adults on levels of housing stress, and how families in different housing tenures are coping. We find that … Continued

Public finances under pressure

Lessons for policy makers from April’s public finance figures

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April’s Public Sector Finances data capture the first full month of the coronavirus lockdown and provide a sobering reminder of the fiscal costs of the pandemic. Public sector net borrowing was £62.1 billion last month, the highest level ever recorded and nearly three time higher than the last record of £22 billion in April 2012. … Continued

Young workers in the coronavirus crisis

Findings from the Resolution Foundation’s coronavirus survey

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The coronavirus crisis is expected to hit workers hard, with evidence from previous crises indicating that the young are likely to be affected to a greater degree than most. In this spotlight we move from speculation to evidence, presenting new findings on how different age groups – and in particular the young – have been … Continued

The effects of the coronavirus crisis on workers

Flash findings from the Resolution Foundation’s coronavirus survey

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The coronavirus crisis has hit workers hard: the numbers of those furloughed and those newly claiming Universal Credit illustrates the scale. To date, however, we have had very limited information about which types of people have been most affected. In this spotlight, we begin to fill this gap with flash findings from the Resolution Foundation’s … Continued

Getting Britain working (safely) again

The next phase of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme

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The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) has been a major public policy success. The unprecedented step of paying 80 per cent of the wages for 6.3 million jobs has made it possible to ask people to stay at home to save lives. This paper explores how the JRS should evolve as restrictions on activity are … Continued

Optimism in a time of coronavirus

While undoubtedly gloomy, today’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Reports from the Bank of England envisage little lasting damage to the economy or financial system

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Today the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee provided its first major assessment of the impact of coronavirus on the economy. The MPC envisage growth this year to be the weakest in over 300 years, with a fall of 25 per cent expected in the second quarter, and a fall of 14 per cent for … Continued

Class of 2020

Education leavers in the current crisis

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The economic fallout from the coronavirus has taken the UK into uncharted territory, with fears that an additional 640,000 18-24-year-olds could find themselves unemployed this year alone. This briefing note focuses specifically on the prospects facing young people leaving full-time education today, highlighting the size and length of employment and pay scarring that they could … Continued

Risky business

Economic impacts of the coronavirus crisis on different groups of workers

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The coronavirus crisis has affected everyone. Everyone’s health is at risk and to combat the disease, working lives have been altered across the country. But some are affected more than others: the relationship between the kind of job people have and their exposure to big economic or health risks in this crisis is by no … Continued

Launching an economic lifeboat

The impact of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme

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Summary Today marks the opening of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), a scheme entirely without precedent in the UK.    Its primary objective is to share the economic pain of this crisis by keeping unemployment much lower than it otherwise would have been. Indeed, although we estimate that non-working could increase by as much … Continued

What happens after the clapping finishes?

The pay, terms and conditions we choose for our care workers

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The nation has rightly come together in the current crisis to express support for our care workers. But how do we normally treat the social care workforce? Due to both long-standing and nearer-term decisions and trends, frontline care workers are: underpaid, with around half earning less than the real Living Wage; particularly vulnerable to being … Continued

Doing more of what it takes

Next steps in the economic response to coronavirus

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The Government has responded to coronavirus by shutting down large parts of the UK economy, and socialising the costs of doing so through a package of fiscal support to firms and individuals unprecedented in size and scope. Given uncertainty about how long public health restrictions will need to be in place, economic policy makers need to be prepared to manage what could … Continued

Crystal balls vs rear-view mirrors

The UK labour market after coronavirus

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Summary Sudden and significant hits to the UK labour market in recent weeks have shown that this will be a jobs recession. The focus has rightly been on how to respond to the huge numbers of people losing work, but policy makers and pundits are also beginning to ask what this crisis could mean for … Continued

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