The beginning of the end

by

The furlough scheme is less than 90 days from closing down, with 1 July 2021 marking the beginning of its wind-down now that employers are contributing 10 per cent of furloughed employees’ wages. This short note looks at which sectors, people and places are currently more likely to be using the scheme and what this … Continued

In need of support?

Lessons from the Covid-19 crisis for our social security system

by

This briefing note looks at the lessons we have learnt about the UK’s welfare system over the course of the Covid-19 crisis so far, and what those lessons might mean for its future direction. The £111 billion spent so far on supporting incomes during the pandemic should remind us of the importance of welfare systems. … Continued

A U-shaped crisis

The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on older workers

by

It is well established that the Covid-19 crisis has generated substantially large employment affects for young people in the UK. However, older workers have also been severely affected, more so than middle-career workers, even if not as badly as the young.  This briefing note examines the impact of the crisis on older workers, assesses the … Continued

After shocks

Financial resilience before and during the Covid-19 crisis

by

This report provides some of the first evidence on how the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on households has differed across countries. It studies the living standards-related factors that contribute to financial resilience (or the lack of it) both before and during Covid-19 in the UK, France and Germany. Overall, we find that pre-crisis vulnerabilities … Continued

Uneven steps

Changes in youth unemployment and study since the onset of Covid-19

by

In order to reduce the spread of Covid-19, and thereby save lives, large sectors of the UK economy were temporarily shut down during parts of 2020 and 2021. Although unemployment rose by less than anticipated during this period, with the unemployment rate among people aged 16 and older rising by just over one percentage point … Continued

Migration during the pandemic

Have 1.3 million migrants really left the country?

by

 According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the number of people living in the UK but born overseas fell by approximately 1 million between the first and third quarters of 2020, while the number of UK-born UK residents in this same category band rose by 1.3 million over the same period. Some have cast doubt … Continued

The 12-month stretch

Where the Government has delivered – and where it has failed – during the Covid-19 crisis

by

This note explores the big picture of how policy makers have responded to the pandemic over the past 12 months, taking a step back to explore what they have done, and what that has done to health and economic outcomes.

How to throw good money after good

Budget 2021 and the challenge of delivering a rapid recovery from Covid-19

by

While the strength of the economic recovery from Covid-19 will depend on the vaccine rollout and the Government’s ‘road map’ for easing social distancing restrictions, it will also depend on decisions taken at the Budget which are the economic counterpart to that reopening plan. This paper assesses the economic context to the Budget: how the … Continued

Half-measures

The Chancellor’s options for Universal Credit in the Budget

by

The Government has still to decide on whether to continue the £20 per week uplift to Universal Credit (UC) and Working Tax Credit (WTC), due to expire in just 45 days. There are suggestions the Chancellor will opt for a halfway house of keeping the uplift for six months. Compared to the pencilled-in default of … Continued

Long Covid in the labour market

The impact on the labour market of Covid-19 a year into the crisis, and how to secure a strong recovery

by

This is the third time we have written a report taking stock of the impact of the virus on the labour market. Nine months on from our first report in June last year, some things are similar. The health effects of the second wave may be starting to recede, and thoughts are again turning to … Continued

Getting ahead on falling behind

Tackling the UK’s building arrears crisis

by

This briefing note examines how families have managed their housing costs over the Covid-19 period. Although the Government has done much to support families over the past year (not least via the furlough scheme and the £20 per week uplift to UC), it is clear that financial strain has grown as the pandemic has worn … Continued

On firm ground?

The impact of Covid-19 on firms and what policy makers should do in response

by

The coronavirus crisis has had huge repercussions across the economy, and the corporate sector is no exception. This paper analyses how the crisis has affected firms’ finances, puts that in context compared to previous recessions, and assesses the ability of firms to contribute to the post-crisis recovery. This is important because firms’ investment and hiring … Continued

Pandemic Pressures

Why families on a low income are spending more during Covid-19

by

Household spending has fallen during the Covid-19 pandemic, but not for many of those on the lowest incomes. This note brings together data from representative surveys with vivid accounts from parents and carers participating in the ‘Covid Realities’ research programme to explore the reasons behind, and consequences of, the cost pressures that many have faced since the pandemic began.

Lockdown lessons

What 2020 has to teach us about the difficult weeks ahead

by

2021 begins with England and Scotland heading into new lockdowns, and tough ones at that. Lasting until at least late February, England’s new restrictions are more comparable to those of spring 2020 than the more relaxed autumn affairs. In this short note we focus on the experience of that first lockdown, and what it can … Continued

Home and away

The UK labour market in a post-Brexit world

by

This briefing note considers a number of ways in which the labour market could be affected as the UK moves to a tighter, post-Brexit immigration regime in January 2021. Under the new rules, legal avenues for low-skilled migrant workers to enter the UK will be more restrictively drawn, with implications for firms, resident foreign-born workers … Continued

Time out

Reforming Statutory Sick Pay to support the Covid-19 recovery phase

by

In a pandemic, sick pay should play a crucial public health role, as well as providing income protection. But the UK’s Statutory Sick Pay is low by international standards, and misses out two million of our lowest-paid workers. Evidence suggests that this contributes to the low level of compliance with the legal obligation to self-isolate … Continued

Here today, gone tomorrow

Putting Spending Review 2020 into context

by

This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued

The Covid state

Analysis of the economy and public finances ahead of the 2020 Spending Review

by

The Chancellor is set to unveil his Spending Review against a radically changed economic and fiscal backdrop to the one he faced in March. Although unemployment is set to peak lower and later than had been expected back in the Summer, the long-term economic scarring from this crisis is set to be significant. The OBR’s … Continued

Caught in a (Covid) trap

Incomes, savings and spending through the coronavirus crisis

by

In this briefing note we examine how the family finances of working-age adults have been affected since Covid-19 gripped the nation this spring. Drawing on new data from a representative survey of 6,000-plus working-age adults fielded in mid-September, we take a close look at how incomes, spending and saving changed during both the lockdown (April … Continued

Unhealthy finances

How to support the economy today and repair the public finances tomorrow

by

This report provides analysis of the dual challenges faced by the government: ensuring that there is sufficient fiscal support through the crisis and recovery, and setting fiscal policy on a sustainable long-term path. Some argue it is unsustainable to provide the massive government support during the crisis, while others see little constraint on government borrowing … Continued

The Bank of England’s options for supporting the economy

Lessons from the US

by

Ahead of this week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, we discuss what recent changes to how US policy makers approach setting interest rates might tell us about what additional support the Bank of England could provide in the face of a second national lockdown. The most important change was the introduction of a ‘flexible average inflation … Continued

Wake me up when November ends

The economic outlook amid Lockdown II

by

We’ve got less than 48 hours until a second national lockdown in England begins, and who knows how long until it comes to an end. Pubs, hotels, and hairdressers’ doors will close again across England – as they have been in Wales since 23 October – with the significant tightening of restrictions representing the final … Continued

Failed safe?

Enforcing workplace health and safety in the age of Covid-19

by

This briefing note is part of a three-year programme of research exploring labour market enforcement generously funded by Unbound Philanthropy. Using a new survey of 6,000-plus UK working-age adults fielded in September this year, and administrative data from the enforcement agencies themselves, we explore how workers, employers and the regulators have responded to the threat … Continued

Loading
No more publications found