Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q4 2021 Wages and the cost of living in 2022 29 December 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Hannah Slaughter The final three months of 2021 have been a mixed bag for the pandemic and the labour market. At the end of September, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) came to an end after 18 months – and the feared rise in unemployment does not seem to have come to pass. But the emergence of … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Labour market The new wave The economic policy response to Omicron 15 December 2021 by Torsten Bell and Jack Leslie A new wave of this pandemic is underway, even if we can’t see much sign of it yet in the UK-wide data. The Prime Minister rightly tells us to expect “a tidal wave of Omicron coming” and in London it’s already arrived. This is not the Christmas present any of us wanted. In terms of … Continued READ MORE
The Boris Budget Resolution Foundation analysis of Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 28 October 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review. The Chancellor has unveiled a career-defining third Budget against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and risks. His aim: to draw a line under Covid-19, boost spending in the key priority areas yet also bear down on the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Nationally Insured? New taxes and new spending to address key Department for Health and Social Care priorities 8 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Lindsay Judge and Krishan Shah and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This note assesses the announcements made by the Government on the suspension of the Triple Lock, National Insurance rises, health and social care funding, and public spending totals for the rest of this Parliament made on 7 September 2021. READ MORE
Social care· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Universal Credit· Economy and public finances To govern is to choose The choices facing the Chancellor this autumn 6 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor has not had a quiet introduction to national policy making: overseeing 17 major fiscal announcements in as many months. This summer provided the first lull, driven by the success of vaccines and the understandable focus on Afghanistan. But the quiet phase is coming to an end. Alongside dealing with whatever new paths the … Continued READ MORE
Social care· Tax A caring tax rise? The impacts of a potential increase in National Insurance 21 July 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett The Government intends to increase social care spending and is considering its options, having delayed a decision until the Autumn. They are 100 per cent right to do so. One option under consideration is raising National Insurance to make that possible. They are 100 per cent wrong to do so – because the far superior … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Labour market Understanding the labour market: pandemic not pandemonium The labour market is normalising, not overheating 28 June 2021 by Torsten Bell and Kathleen Henehan and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites The mild euphoria phase of the economic commentary cycle has arrived somewhat earlier than after previous downturns. This is a big change from the excessive pessimism of late 2020. According to some, we have “eye popping growth” to look forward to as “Brexit Britain Booms”. For the labour market, this turn to optimism has seen … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Public spending The 12-month stretch Where the Government has delivered – and where it has failed – during the Covid-19 crisis 18 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer This note explores the big picture of how policy makers have responded to the pandemic over the past 12 months, taking a step back to explore what they have done, and what that has done to health and economic outcomes. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spending fast, taxing slow Resolution Foundation analysis of Budget 2021 4 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2021 Budget. The context for this Budget was an intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic, creating a need for further policy measures to support families and firms in the months before the completion of the vaccine rollout. In response, the Chancellor announced significant … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus Lockdown lessons What 2020 has to teach us about the difficult weeks ahead 5 January 2021 by Torsten Bell and Lindsay Judge 2021 begins with England and Scotland heading into new lockdowns, and tough ones at that. Lasting until at least late February, England’s new restrictions are more comparable to those of spring 2020 than the more relaxed autumn affairs. In this short note we focus on the experience of that first lockdown, and what it can … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q4 2020 28 December 2020 by James Smith and Torsten Bell and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Nye Cominetti This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. This edition of the Macro Policy Outlook looks ahead to prospects for 2021. The early months of next year will pick up where 2020 left off, … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Here today, gone tomorrow Putting Spending Review 2020 into context 26 November 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economic growth Wake me up when November ends The economic outlook amid Lockdown II 3 November 2020 by Torsten Bell We’ve got less than 48 hours until a second national lockdown in England begins, and who knows how long until it comes to an end. Pubs, hotels, and hairdressers’ doors will close again across England – as they have been in Wales since 23 October – with the significant tightening of restrictions representing the final … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare Death by £1000 cuts? The history, economics and politics of cutting benefits for millions of households next April 2 October 2020 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb The first Conservative Conference of a new parliament begins. It comes on the back of a surprisingly emphatic election win, but with rumblings beginning about the Chancellor’s plan to take £1,000 away from millions of low-income households in just six months’ time. At that conference it is George Osborne, not Rishi Sunak, that gets up … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Economy and public finances The Winter (Economy Plan) is coming Chancellor ramps economic support back up, but avoidable design flaws will limit its success in stemming the Autumn rise in unemployment 25 September 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson Economic policy yesterday caught back up with the ramping back up of social distancing restrictions by the Prime Minister earlier in the week. The Chancellor rightly announced new measures rather than sticking to plans to phase out help for workers and firms. His most significant policy was the Job Support Scheme (JSS), an extended, … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Intergenerational Centre Locked in? The triple lock on the State Pension in light of the coronavirus crisis 26 June 2020 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner It is well known that the triple lock on the State Pension – which states that it rises each year by the highest of earnings growth, inflation and 2.5 per cent – makes its value dependent not just on the general pace of growth in prices and wages, but also on their volatility. The next … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Low pay A new settlement for the low paid Beyond the minimum wage to dignity and respect 3 June 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter This crisis is shared, but its burden is not. From health risks to job losses, it is the UK’s 4.2 million low-paid workers on whom this pandemic has imposed the greatest cost, and of whom the efforts to combat it have required the greatest sacrifice. Lower earners are three times as likely to have lost … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economy and public finances Public finances under pressure Lessons for policy makers from April’s public finance figures 22 May 2020 by Torsten Bell and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti April’s Public Sector Finances data capture the first full month of the coronavirus lockdown and provide a sobering reminder of the fiscal costs of the pandemic. Public sector net borrowing was £62.1 billion last month, the highest level ever recorded and nearly three time higher than the last record of £22 billion in April 2012. … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs Getting Britain working (safely) again The next phase of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 12 May 2020 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Daniel Tomlinson The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) has been a major public policy success. The unprecedented step of paying 80 per cent of the wages for 6.3 million jobs has made it possible to ask people to stay at home to save lives. This paper explores how the JRS should evolve as restrictions on activity are … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market· Job quality and security· Low pay· Pay· Skills· Migration Crystal balls vs rear-view mirrors The UK labour market after coronavirus 7 April 2020 by Hannah Slaughter and Torsten Bell Summary Sudden and significant hits to the UK labour market in recent weeks have shown that this will be a jobs recession. The focus has rightly been on how to respond to the huge numbers of people losing work, but policy makers and pundits are also beginning to ask what this crisis could mean for … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Incomes· Welfare Next steps to support family incomes in the face of the coronavirus crisis 25 March 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Laura Gardiner and Karl Handscomb and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has set out an unprecedented package of support for family incomes, including paying 80 per cent of the wages of employees who currently have no work, via its Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Delivering that scheme should be the top priority, given its crucial role in preventing a very steep rise in unemployment and … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events A Budget action plan The economic response to the coronavirus 8 March 2020 by Tony Yates and Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Richard Hughes and James Smith Although secondary to addressing the health consequences, it is crucial that policy makers act swiftly to prevent the outbreak of coronavirus becoming an economic crisis, too. READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Oven-ready, safety-first Assessing the Conservatives' 2019 manifesto 24 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Brexit is happening, but big tax cuts aren’t. That’s the short version of the already fairly short Conservative Manifesto. This manifesto does not tell us much about what the Conservatives would do after 31st January 2020, but it does confirm the country faces a big choice in this election on the size of the … Continued READ MORE
Political parties and elections Doubling down on a bigger state Assessing Labour’s 2019 manifesto 22 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Labour have doubled down on plans to increase the size of the state, and their ambitious spending pledges have been matched by ambitious revenue-raising plans. There is now a very big choice facing the country on the size of the state it wants, and how it should be funded. Their manifesto also builds on … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Jobs· Labour market· Job quality and security· Low pay· Pay Feel poor, work more Explaining the UK’s record employment 12 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner There is no bigger change to our economy over the past decade than the employment boom. We argue that this has been driven by the deep post-crisis income squeeze. This pushed up labour supply via more workers, and a pause in the long-term decline in working hours. READ MORE
