Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Oven-ready, safety-first Assessing the Conservatives' 2019 manifesto 24 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Brexit is happening, but big tax cuts aren’t. That’s the short version of the already fairly short Conservative Manifesto. This manifesto does not tell us much about what the Conservatives would do after 31st January 2020, but it does confirm the country faces a big choice in this election on the size of the … Continued READ MORE
Political parties and elections Doubling down on a bigger state Assessing Labour’s 2019 manifesto 22 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Labour have doubled down on plans to increase the size of the state, and their ambitious spending pledges have been matched by ambitious revenue-raising plans. There is now a very big choice facing the country on the size of the state it wants, and how it should be funded. Their manifesto also builds on … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Jobs· Labour market· Job quality and security· Low pay· Pay Feel poor, work more Explaining the UK’s record employment 12 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner There is no bigger change to our economy over the past decade than the employment boom. We argue that this has been driven by the deep post-crisis income squeeze. This pushed up labour supply via more workers, and a pause in the long-term decline in working hours. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Tax· Political parties and elections The huge Brexit Party tax cut for rich remain areas 16 September 2019 by Adam Corlett and Torsten Bell In this paper we examine the policy of abolishing inheritance tax, the new top priority announced by the Brexit Party. We find that the proposal would amount to an expensive giveaway to a tiny number of very wealthy households, largely living in the richest parts of the country and concentrated in remain voting constituencies. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Rounding up Putting the 2019 Spending Round into context 4 September 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett In his September 2019 Spending Round the Chancellor rightly declared he was “turning the page” on austerity and “writing a new chapter in our public services”. But he has also ripped up his own fiscal rulebook, almost certainly breaking the fiscal ‘mandate’ in the near-term and casting significant doubt over his ability to keep debt falling as a share of GDP over the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Breaking the rules Analysing the credibility of the Chancellor’s commitment to keep to his fiscal rules 31 August 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell The Chancellor is shortly to deliver the first spending round (SR) of the post-austerity era. Although he is only setting departmental budgets for 2020-21, this event will mark a turning point in our political and economic debates as it brings to an end almost 10 years of austerity. The politics of this SR are relatively … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Is everybody concentrating? Recent trends in product and labour market concentration in the UK 26 July 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell This paper analyses trends in product market and labour market concentration in the UK, to see whether (as is the case in the US) larger firms are accounting for a larger share of economic activity today than in years gone by. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Scotland The £1 trillion pie: how wealth is shared across Scotland 22 June 2018 by Conor D’Arcy and Torsten Bell The wealth of Scottish households has grown rapidly in recent years and now exceeds £1 trillion for the first time. But from a living standards perspective, what matters is how that wealth – including property, pensions and savings – is shared. The report explores some of the key inequalities when it comes to wealth in … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2016 21 December 2016 by Laura Gardiner and Torsten Bell Two big 2016 events dominate our view of the labour market and likely developments in the coming years – the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April, and the result of the EU referendum in June. This final Earnings Outlook of the year – capturing data up to Q3 – provides an opportunity … Continued READ MORE
