Coronavirus Lockdown lessons What 2020 has to teach us about the difficult weeks ahead 5 January 2021 by Torsten Bell and Lindsay Judge 2021 begins with England and Scotland heading into new lockdowns, and tough ones at that. Lasting until at least late February, England’s new restrictions are more comparable to those of spring 2020 than the more relaxed autumn affairs. In this short note we focus on the experience of that first lockdown, and what it can … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q4 2020 28 December 2020 by James Smith and Torsten Bell and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Nye Cominetti This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. This edition of the Macro Policy Outlook looks ahead to prospects for 2021. The early months of next year will pick up where 2020 left off, … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Here today, gone tomorrow Putting Spending Review 2020 into context 26 November 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economic growth Wake me up when November ends The economic outlook amid Lockdown II 3 November 2020 by Torsten Bell We’ve got less than 48 hours until a second national lockdown in England begins, and who knows how long until it comes to an end. Pubs, hotels, and hairdressers’ doors will close again across England – as they have been in Wales since 23 October – with the significant tightening of restrictions representing the final … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare Death by £1000 cuts? The history, economics and politics of cutting benefits for millions of households next April 2 October 2020 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb The first Conservative Conference of a new parliament begins. It comes on the back of a surprisingly emphatic election win, but with rumblings beginning about the Chancellor’s plan to take £1,000 away from millions of low-income households in just six months’ time. At that conference it is George Osborne, not Rishi Sunak, that gets up … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Economy and public finances The Winter (Economy Plan) is coming Chancellor ramps economic support back up, but avoidable design flaws will limit its success in stemming the Autumn rise in unemployment 25 September 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson Economic policy yesterday caught back up with the ramping back up of social distancing restrictions by the Prime Minister earlier in the week. The Chancellor rightly announced new measures rather than sticking to plans to phase out help for workers and firms. His most significant policy was the Job Support Scheme (JSS), an extended, … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Intergenerational Centre Locked in? The triple lock on the State Pension in light of the coronavirus crisis 26 June 2020 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner It is well known that the triple lock on the State Pension – which states that it rises each year by the highest of earnings growth, inflation and 2.5 per cent – makes its value dependent not just on the general pace of growth in prices and wages, but also on their volatility. The next … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Low pay A new settlement for the low paid Beyond the minimum wage to dignity and respect 3 June 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter This crisis is shared, but its burden is not. From health risks to job losses, it is the UK’s 4.2 million low-paid workers on whom this pandemic has imposed the greatest cost, and of whom the efforts to combat it have required the greatest sacrifice. Lower earners are three times as likely to have lost … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Economy and public finances Public finances under pressure Lessons for policy makers from April’s public finance figures 22 May 2020 by Torsten Bell and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti April’s Public Sector Finances data capture the first full month of the coronavirus lockdown and provide a sobering reminder of the fiscal costs of the pandemic. Public sector net borrowing was £62.1 billion last month, the highest level ever recorded and nearly three time higher than the last record of £22 billion in April 2012. … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs Getting Britain working (safely) again The next phase of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 12 May 2020 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Daniel Tomlinson The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) has been a major public policy success. The unprecedented step of paying 80 per cent of the wages for 6.3 million jobs has made it possible to ask people to stay at home to save lives. This paper explores how the JRS should evolve as restrictions on activity are … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market· Job quality and security· Low pay· Pay· Skills· Migration Crystal balls vs rear-view mirrors The UK labour market after coronavirus 7 April 2020 by Hannah Slaughter and Torsten Bell Summary Sudden and significant hits to the UK labour market in recent weeks have shown that this will be a jobs recession. The focus has rightly been on how to respond to the huge numbers of people losing work, but policy makers and pundits are also beginning to ask what this crisis could mean for … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Incomes· Welfare Next steps to support family incomes in the face of the coronavirus crisis 25 March 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Laura Gardiner and Karl Handscomb and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has set out an unprecedented package of support for family incomes, including paying 80 per cent of the wages of employees who currently have no work, via its Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Delivering that scheme should be the top priority, given its crucial role in preventing a very steep rise in unemployment and … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events A Budget action plan The economic response to the coronavirus 8 March 2020 by Tony Yates and Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Richard Hughes and James Smith Although secondary to addressing the health consequences, it is crucial that policy makers act swiftly to prevent the outbreak of coronavirus becoming an economic crisis, too. READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Oven-ready, safety-first Assessing the Conservatives' 2019 manifesto 24 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Brexit is happening, but big tax cuts aren’t. That’s the short version of the already fairly short Conservative Manifesto. This manifesto does not tell us much about what the Conservatives would do after 31st January 2020, but it does confirm the country faces a big choice in this election on the size of the … Continued READ MORE
Political parties and elections Doubling down on a bigger state Assessing Labour’s 2019 manifesto 22 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Labour have doubled down on plans to increase the size of the state, and their ambitious spending pledges have been matched by ambitious revenue-raising plans. There is now a very big choice facing the country on the size of the state it wants, and how it should be funded. Their manifesto also builds on … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Jobs· Labour market· Job quality and security· Low pay· Pay Feel poor, work more Explaining the UK’s record employment 12 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner There is no bigger change to our economy over the past decade than the employment boom. We argue that this has been driven by the deep post-crisis income squeeze. This pushed up labour supply via more workers, and a pause in the long-term decline in working hours. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Tax· Political parties and elections The huge Brexit Party tax cut for rich remain areas 16 September 2019 by Adam Corlett and Torsten Bell In this paper we examine the policy of abolishing inheritance tax, the new top priority announced by the Brexit Party. We find that the proposal would amount to an expensive giveaway to a tiny number of very wealthy households, largely living in the richest parts of the country and concentrated in remain voting constituencies. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Rounding up Putting the 2019 Spending Round into context 4 September 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett In his September 2019 Spending Round the Chancellor rightly declared he was “turning the page” on austerity and “writing a new chapter in our public services”. But he has also ripped up his own fiscal rulebook, almost certainly breaking the fiscal ‘mandate’ in the near-term and casting significant doubt over his ability to keep debt falling as a share of GDP over the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Breaking the rules Analysing the credibility of the Chancellor’s commitment to keep to his fiscal rules 31 August 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell The Chancellor is shortly to deliver the first spending round (SR) of the post-austerity era. Although he is only setting departmental budgets for 2020-21, this event will mark a turning point in our political and economic debates as it brings to an end almost 10 years of austerity. The politics of this SR are relatively … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Is everybody concentrating? Recent trends in product and labour market concentration in the UK 26 July 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell This paper analyses trends in product market and labour market concentration in the UK, to see whether (as is the case in the US) larger firms are accounting for a larger share of economic activity today than in years gone by. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Scotland The £1 trillion pie: how wealth is shared across Scotland 22 June 2018 by Conor D’Arcy and Torsten Bell The wealth of Scottish households has grown rapidly in recent years and now exceeds £1 trillion for the first time. But from a living standards perspective, what matters is how that wealth – including property, pensions and savings – is shared. The report explores some of the key inequalities when it comes to wealth in … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2016 21 December 2016 by Laura Gardiner and Torsten Bell Two big 2016 events dominate our view of the labour market and likely developments in the coming years – the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April, and the result of the EU referendum in June. This final Earnings Outlook of the year – capturing data up to Q3 – provides an opportunity … Continued READ MORE
