Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The trillion-pound question Spring Budget 2020 and the tension between higher spending, low taxes and fiscal credibility 24 February 2020 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Daniel Tomlinson This report focuses on the big choice that the Chancellor will have to make this year, across two Budgets and the Spending Review, over the balance between day-to-day (current) spending, taxation and additional borrowing. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2020 20 February 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is the first of a new series of Macro Policy Outlooks (MPOs) from the Resolution Foundation’s Macroeconomic Policy Unit, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition we explore the outlook ahead of the Budget due on 11 March. The economy has slowed significantly in recent quarters, with 2019 the second-weakest post-war … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Job quality and security· Pay Earnings Outlook Q3 2019 27 December 2019 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie Unlike our politics, 2019 was a year of strength and stability in the labour market – a year when employment reached and stayed at record highs and pay growth neared pre-recession levels. The most recent set of labour market data (for the three months to October) underlined this – the 16-64 employment rate ticked up … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Pensions & savings· Inequality & poverty· Wealth & assets· Political parties and elections Who owns all the pie? The size and distribution of Britain’s £14.6 trillion of wealth 5 December 2019 by George Bangham and Jack Leslie While incomes have stagnated over the past decade, our national wealth has continued to boom. Data released today put UK households collective wealth at £14.6 trillion. But that total is far from equally distributed: the richest 10 per cent of households own almost half of the nation’s wealth having benefitted most from the recent wealth … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy· Political parties and elections Playing by their own rules? We analyse whether the policy platforms announced by the main parties are consistent with their own fiscal rules 28 November 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith Fiscal rules are crucial for the government’s stewardship of the public finances and framing its economic priorities. So it is welcome that the main parties have prioritised setting out the rules they would follow, with their announcements following to different degrees the approach recommended by earlier Resolution Foundation work. But fiscal rules are only useful … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Jobs· Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Low pay· Pay The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q2 2019 7 November 2019 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie In our Earnings Outlook for 2019 Q2 we suggest that the UK’s 12 year long pay squeeze may be about to come to an end, just in time for the election. But for many groups, typical pay is still well below its previous peak, READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Totally (net) worth it The next generation of UK fiscal rules 29 October 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith The UK needs new fiscal rules which put improving net worth at the centre, enable the government to borrow to invest, are robust to a wide range of scenarios, and allow fiscal policy to play a lead role in stabilising the economy. READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Britannia waives the rules? Lessons from UK and international experience with fiscal rules 21 October 2019 by Richard Hughes and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie The UK’s current fiscal rules will expire in 2020-21 and all major political parties have committed to replacing them. This paper explores the lessons from UK and international experience that can help set the UK’s next generation of fiscal targets. READ MORE
Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Dealing with ‘no deal’ The economic policy response to a ‘no deal’ Brexit 19 September 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report provides a framework for understanding what role macroeconomic policy can play in alleviating the economic impact of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. READ MORE
Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Recession ready? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework 9 September 2019 by James Smith and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Fahmida Rahman This report is the launch paper for the Resolution Foundation’s Macroeconomic Policy Unit. It provides the most comprehensive assessment of the UK’s macroeconomic policy framework since the financial crisis, focusing on the ability of the framework to provide effective support to the economy in the face of the next recession. This work is important, given … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Quantitative (displ)easing? Does QE work and how should it be used next time? 7 September 2019 by Jack Leslie and Fahmida Rahman and James Smith and Joe Gagnon After the financial crisis, central banks purchased massive amounts of long-term bonds to stimulate economies. These purchases have come to be known as quantitative easing (QE) and have been hugely controversial – barely a third (37 per cent) of UK Members of Parliament, when polled, support its use in future. In theory, QE stimulates the … Continued READ MORE
Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Pay· Minimum wage Earnings Outlook Q1 2019 29 July 2019 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie In our Earnings Outlook for 2019 Q1, we explore two big changes in the labour market over the past two decades: the rise in self-employment and the introduction and uprating of the minimum wage. Is there a connection between these trends? View all Earnings Outlooks. READ MORE
