Great expectations in hard times?

Previewing the big decisions for the Chancellor in the new Government’s first Budget

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In this briefing note, we put the big decisions faced by Chancellor in the new Government’s pivotal first Budget into context, discussing the new – and old – spending pressures faced, how the economic outlook has changed, and what all means for the public finances.  

Over-ruled?

Assessing the options for changing the fiscal rules

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Although the Chancellor said she would stick with the previous Government’s much-criticised rule of reducing public debt in the fifth year of the forecast, Rachel Reeves’s conference speech has sparked a debate about whether the fiscal rules should be changed to allow the Government to borrow more. Three options have been mooted for changing the … Continued

Building blocks

Assessing the role of planning reform in meeting the Government’s housing targets

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The Government has prioritised planning reform as its key policy lever to deliver an ambitious target of 1.5 million additional homes by the end of this Parliament. This note explores the extent to which the proposed reforms to the planning system will help reach this target, while also highlighting other constraints on housing supply that … Continued

General Election 2024
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Housing
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Political parties and elections

Home truths

Putting housing policy in context for the 2024 general election

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The housing offers from both main parties for the 2024 general election are similar in many respects, suggesting that the ‘penny has dropped’ when it comes to boosting housing supply, supporting would-be homeowners, and improving the energy efficiency of our country’s housing stock. As well as a broad consensus forming around some housing policy areas, … Continued

Debt dramas

Putting the public finances in context ahead of general election 2024

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The public finances have already emerged as a key issue in this election. So, in this briefing note, we step back and ask how we got to where we are today, discuss where the public finances might be heading, and consider what this means for whoever forms the next government.

Paying the price

How the inflation surge has reshaped the British economy

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The UK has experienced its highest inflation for more than 40 years, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But next week will bring the welcome news that inflation has returned close to the 2 per cent target for the first time since July 2021. In this briefing note we take a step back and look at … Continued

Through the roof

Recent trends in rental-price growth

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In the context of the significant rental-price growth the UK has experienced over the past two years, this briefing note looks at possible causes, and what we can expect looking ahead.

Back for more?

Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context

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In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term.

The Election Budget

Spring Budget 2024 preview

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In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Budget, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of what will be a key pre-election economic-policy event. We focus on the scope for cutting taxes, and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. We find that, despite near-term bad … Continued

A pre-election Statement

Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context

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In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term.

An intergenerational audit for the UK

2023

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Five years ago, our Intergenerational Commission set out the numerous threats to the UK’s promise of intergenerational progress. More recently, the spotlight has once again fallen on this issue, but this time in the US, where the latest data has started to suggest that living standards for the millennials are catching up with, and on … Continued

Preparing the pitch

Autumn Statement 2023 preview

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In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued

A tale of two cities (part 2)

A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Greater Manchester and beyond

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Few would disagree that the UK has a significant productivity problem, or fail to recognise that the poor performance of the nation’s largest cities outside the capital contribute to that situation. As the Economy 2030 Inquiry has made clear, the productivity of our largest cities lags the UK average, bucking the global trend for bigger … Continued

A tale of two cities (part 1)

A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Birmingham and beyond

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After the success of the Commonwealth games in 2022, Birmingham is now in the news for the wrong reasons. Financial difficulties facing the City Council culminated in a formal declaration on 5 September 2023 that Britain’s largest local authority was, in effect, bankrupt. But the understandable short-term focus on the council’s financial woes must not … Continued

Sharing the benefits

Can Britain secure broadly shared prosperity?

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The UK has been living through a period of relative decline that has proved toxic for those on low-to-middle incomes. Against that backdrop, this report examines whether there is still a plausible path to steadily rising shared prosperity and, if so, what does it look like. It does this as part of the Economy 2030 … Continued

We’re going on a growth Hunt

Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context

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This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment.

New Budget, same problems

Spring Budget preview

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In our Spring Budget preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget on March 15th, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor in three key areas: cost-of-living support, public sector pay and boosting growth. We find that there is finally some good news for the Chancellor in the short … Continued

Housing Outlook Q2 2021

The impact of Covid-19 on housing demand across the UK

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In Housing Outlook this quarter, we consider how Covid-19 has affected housing demand across the UK. In the absence of good rental data, we look below the surface of rising house prices, and consider the impact of home working and lockdowns, as well as Government policy, on housing preferences. Studies for the US suggest that … Continued

Spending fast, taxing slow

Resolution Foundation analysis of Budget 2021

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This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2021 Budget. The context for this Budget was an intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic, creating a need for further policy measures to support families and firms in the months before the completion of the vaccine rollout. In response, the Chancellor announced significant … Continued

How to throw good money after good

Budget 2021 and the challenge of delivering a rapid recovery from Covid-19

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While the strength of the economic recovery from Covid-19 will depend on the vaccine rollout and the Government’s ‘road map’ for easing social distancing restrictions, it will also depend on decisions taken at the Budget which are the economic counterpart to that reopening plan. This paper assesses the economic context to the Budget: how the … Continued

Housing Outlook Q1 2021

The Impact of Covid-19 on Housing Supply

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Welcome to Housing Outlook Q1 2021. In this Spotlight we consider the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the supply of new housing. While construction sites have generally been allowed to operate throughout the pandemic, output was still severely constrained in the first half of 2020. While there was some pick up at the back … Continued

Building a living pension

Closing the pension savings gap for low to-middle income families

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The Living Wage has been successful in providing a focus on the living standards of low-paid workers and increasing pay for many lower-paid employees. However, there has been much less of a focus on the future living standards of the same group. A ‘Living Pension’ could help us understand the savings required today to provide … Continued

Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q4 2020

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This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment.   This edition of the Macro Policy Outlook looks ahead to prospects for 2021. The early months of next year will pick up where 2020 left off, … Continued

Here today, gone tomorrow

Putting Spending Review 2020 into context

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This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued

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