Living standards The Living Standards Outlook 2021 18 January 2021 by Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Daniel Tomlinson In the Living Standards Outlook, we assess how the hoped-for post-pandemic economic recovery might translate into a recovery for living standards. Focusing on working-age households, we provide projections for household disposable incomes across the income distribution through to 2024-25. READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Here today, gone tomorrow Putting Spending Review 2020 into context 26 November 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Covid state Analysis of the economy and public finances ahead of the 2020 Spending Review 20 November 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Daniel Tomlinson and James Smith The Chancellor is set to unveil his Spending Review against a radically changed economic and fiscal backdrop to the one he faced in March. Although unemployment is set to peak lower and later than had been expected back in the Summer, the long-term economic scarring from this crisis is set to be significant. The OBR’s … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus Sorting it out The Chancellor moves to fix the Job Support Scheme 22 October 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor has sharply, and rightly, changed course to make Job Support Scheme (JSS) a functioning short-time work scheme, addressing its central flaw. Slashing the share of wages for hours not worked that employers must pay from 33 to just 5 per cent will make a big different to the cost of using the scheme. … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Incomes Back to the furlough U-turn to retain furlough scheme in closed sectors paves way for fresh lockdowns 9 October 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and Daniel Tomlinson The short-lived attempt to set economic policy as if we were leaving the pandemic behind us is over, with the Government announcing that it will pay two-thirds of wages of employees in firms forced to close because of national or local restrictions. This will provide much needed support, saving many jobs in the hospitality and … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Economy and public finances The Winter (Economy Plan) is coming Chancellor ramps economic support back up, but avoidable design flaws will limit its success in stemming the Autumn rise in unemployment 25 September 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson Economic policy yesterday caught back up with the ramping back up of social distancing restrictions by the Prime Minister earlier in the week. The Chancellor rightly announced new measures rather than sticking to plans to phase out help for workers and firms. His most significant policy was the Job Support Scheme (JSS), an extended, … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market Final furlough? Six months on from the start of the Job Retention Scheme 18 September 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson At its peak in early May the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) was supporting 8.9 million jobs. As the economy has opened up in recent months take-up of the scheme has been falling, to 4.8 million by 31 July. Of these, 3.5 million (over 10 per cent of private sector employees) were still furloughed in … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market The Government is not paying nine million people’s wages The number of people currently furloughed is less than half this amount 1 August 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson From today, employers will start contributing towards the wage costs of furloughed employees. This significant first step in the phasing-out of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) carries real risks of increased redundancies – particularly for those in the hardest-hit sectors – and so attention should also focus on the important question of just how … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Living standards The Living Standards Audit 2020 21 July 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Mike Brewer This report provides an estimate of living standards in lockdown Britain, placing them in the context of a poor decade for incomes. It looks at how different groups have fared before and during lockdown, and explores upcoming risks for household incomes. READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs Getting Britain working (safely) again The next phase of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 12 May 2020 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Daniel Tomlinson The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) has been a major public policy success. The unprecedented step of paying 80 per cent of the wages for 6.3 million jobs has made it possible to ask people to stay at home to save lives. This paper explores how the JRS should evolve as restrictions on activity are … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market Launching an economic lifeboat The impact of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 20 April 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson Summary Today marks the opening of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), a scheme entirely without precedent in the UK. Its primary objective is to share the economic pain of this crisis by keeping unemployment much lower than it otherwise would have been. Indeed, although we estimate that non-working could increase by as much … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Labour market· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Doing more of what it takes Next steps in the economic response to coronavirus 16 April 2020 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has responded to coronavirus by shutting down large parts of the UK economy, and socialising the costs of doing so through a package of fiscal support to firms and individuals unprecedented in size and scope. Given uncertainty about how long public health restrictions will need to be in place, economic policy makers need to be prepared to manage what could … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Incomes· Welfare Next steps to support family incomes in the face of the coronavirus crisis 25 March 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Laura Gardiner and Karl Handscomb and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has set out an unprecedented package of support for family incomes, including paying 80 per cent of the wages of employees who currently have no work, via its Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Delivering that scheme should be the top priority, given its crucial role in preventing a very steep rise in unemployment and … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The trillion-pound question Spring Budget 2020 and the tension between higher spending, low taxes and fiscal credibility 24 February 2020 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Daniel Tomlinson This report focuses on the big choice that the Chancellor will have to make this year, across two Budgets and the Spending Review, over the balance between day-to-day (current) spending, taxation and additional borrowing. READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q1 2020 30 January 2020 by Cara Pacitti and Daniel Tomlinson As we enter a new decade in which both the politics and economics of housing look set to be centre stage, this quarterly publication will be tracking all the key trends as the 2020s unfold. We will be keeping an eye on the housing market, and the way that housing intersects with both living standards and policy developments. This quarter, we begin with a look at house prices and ask whether the ‘levelling up’ we observe across the country since 2016 is at an end, or if the process still has further to run. READ MORE
Jobs· Labour market· Job quality and security· Pay More than we bargain for Learning from new debates on how institutions can improve worker pay and security in Anglo-Saxon economies 15 November 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson The UK’s tight labour market is delivering improvements for many, but big challenges remain that current policies and debates aren’t yet rising to meet. The UK can learn from emerging discussions and policy innovations in other Anglo-Saxon economies. READ MORE
Housing Inequality street Housing and the 2019 general election 9 November 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson Political parties’ housing policies need to tackle the reasons for the public’s heightened concern about housing: low home ownership rates, high housing costs and the burden of high costs falling particularly on those with lower incomes. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Rounding up Putting the 2019 Spending Round into context 4 September 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett In his September 2019 Spending Round the Chancellor rightly declared he was “turning the page” on austerity and “writing a new chapter in our public services”. But he has also ripped up his own fiscal rulebook, almost certainly breaking the fiscal ‘mandate’ in the near-term and casting significant doubt over his ability to keep debt falling as a share of GDP over the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Breaking the rules Analysing the credibility of the Chancellor’s commitment to keep to his fiscal rules 31 August 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell The Chancellor is shortly to deliver the first spending round (SR) of the post-austerity era. Although he is only setting departmental budgets for 2020-21, this event will mark a turning point in our political and economic debates as it brings to an end almost 10 years of austerity. The politics of this SR are relatively … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2019 20 June 2019 by Laura Gardiner and George Bangham and Stephen Clarke and Fahmida Rahman and Lindsay Judge and Daniel Tomlinson Our Intergenerational audit for the UK takes stock of generational living standards differences in Britain according to the latest data. It does this by considering living standards within four domains: jobs, skills and pay; housing costs and security; taxes, benefits and household income; and wealth and assets. READ MORE
Firms· Labour market· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Sorry, we’re closed: Understanding the impact of retail’s decline on people and places 27 February 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Laura Gardiner Headlines about shop closures might give the impression that retail’s decline is a recent phenomenon, but retail’s share of employment has been falling for 15 years. This report digs behind this long-run trend, driven by changes in what we spend and how we spend it, and focuses in on what really matters when it comes to economic change: people and places. READ MORE
Labour market· Job quality and security· Universal Credit· Pay Irregular Payments: Assessing the breadth and depth of month to month earnings volatility 15 October 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson This research addresses the question of earnings volatility, unearthing striking findings about the lived experience of work – and the pay we receive for it – in the UK today. This report makes use of anonymised transaction data from over seven million Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) accounts in order to demonstrate the breadth and depth of changes in pay from month to month. READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Is everybody concentrating? Recent trends in product and labour market concentration in the UK 26 July 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell This paper analyses trends in product market and labour market concentration in the UK, to see whether (as is the case in the US) larger firms are accounting for a larger share of economic activity today than in years gone by. READ MORE
Housing· Intergenerational Centre Home improvements: action to address the housing challenges faced by young people 17 April 2018 by Lindsay Judge and Daniel Tomlinson How we can tackle one of the biggest issues for young people in 21st century Britain: the housing crisis? In this report we move beyond a diagnosis of the problem to set out a series of policy options relating to three key areas: insecurity in the private rented sector, falling home ownership rates for young people and a long-term lack of house building. READ MORE
Living standards· Globalisation· Intergenerational Centre Cross countries: international comparisons of intergenerational trends 19 February 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Fahmida Rahman Public concerns about young people’s living standards are shared across high-income countries. This report compares the UK’s generational living standards challenges with those of other high-income economies, focusing on trends in household income and experiences in the labour and housing markets. READ MORE
