The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2016

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This Earnings Outlook looks at the final quarter of labour market data for 2016. Most importantly, inflation has risen rapidly in recent months, weighing heavily on real pay growth – though published pay statistics will take some time to fully reflect this. Indeed, our ‘Spotlight’ article notes that real pay in the public sector has … Continued

The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2015

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In terms of measured jobs market performance and the broader earnings picture, the key recent change has been a gloomier view on productivity, due both to poor Q4 outturns and in particular the downward forecast revisions at last month’s Budget. The productivity disappointment has been mirrored in more muted real average weekly earnings growth. The latest … Continued

The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2015

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The publication last month of the most reliable and comprehensive source on earnings presented a more muted picture of the early stages of the pay recovery than the more timely monthly series had indicated. More encouraging was the information below the headlines, particularly the fact that the recovery was strongest among the lowest earners. In … Continued

The RF Earnings Outlook Q2 2015

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Recent instalments of labour market data have painted a picture of steady but unspectacular growth in nominal wages, combined with zero inflation, producing real average weekly earnings growth above the pre-crisis trend. Labour productivity has started to rise but is essentially unchanged from its 2008 level, fuelling concerns that the pay recovery may prove short-lived … Continued

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