Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay
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Minimum wage

Earnings Outlook Q1 2019

In our latest quarterly Earnings Outlook, we focus on two of the biggest changes to the UK labour market over the past two decades – rising self-employment (from 3.4 million in 1999 to 5 million today) and the introduction and ramping up of the legal minimum wage (from £3.60 in 1999 to £8.21 today) – … Continued

Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2018

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Our quarterly earnings outlook, for Q1 2018. The outlook explores whether the current pace of wage growth is as good as it gets. Despite signs of improvement, annual growth in weekly wages is almost 1.5 percentage points lower than the pre-crisis average.

Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2017

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In Q4 2017 the pay squeeze for that year looked set to dissipate and employment rates continued to rise. But, taking a longer view, weaker than expected productivity growth suggests that the outlook for real pay growth is likely to remain subdued.

Jobs
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Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

Earnings Outlook Q2 2017

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This Earnings Outlook looks at the second quarter of 2017. This was a period in which we saw the best and worst of the UK labour market. On the one hand, compared to a year earlier real pay fell by 0.5 per cent; yet on the other hand the unemployment rate hit a low not … Continued

Jobs
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Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2017

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This Earnings Outlook looks at the first quarter of labour market data for 2017. This was a period when the pay squeeze returned with average weekly earnings falling by 0.4 per cent. This return is particularly unwelcome as average earnings are still 3.4 per cent below their pre-crisis peak. For Londoners and younger workers in … Continued

Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2016

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This Earnings Outlook looks at the final quarter of labour market data for 2016. Most importantly, inflation has risen rapidly in recent months, weighing heavily on real pay growth – though published pay statistics will take some time to fully reflect this. Indeed, our ‘Spotlight’ article notes that real pay in the public sector has … Continued

Jobs
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Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2016

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Two big 2016 events dominate our view of the labour market and likely developments in the coming years – the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April, and the result of the EU referendum in June. This final Earnings Outlook of the year – capturing data up to Q3 – provides an opportunity … Continued

Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q2 2016

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The second quarter of 2016 marked both the introduction of the National Living Wage and the vote to leave the European Union. There are tentative signs that the former has led to strong shared pay growth without affecting aggregate unemployment, but more data will be needed. Referendum effects are not yet visible, but Q2 2016 … Continued

Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2016

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Overshadowing the latest outturn data for the labour market, and our picture of the UK economy more widely, is the UK’s decision to leave the EU. It will take some time before the effects of this decision make themselves felt in the hard economic data, but a detailed look at the pre-referendum jobs market can … Continued

Jobs
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Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2015

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In terms of measured jobs market performance and the broader earnings picture, the key recent change has been a gloomier view on productivity, due both to poor Q4 outturns and in particular the downward forecast revisions at last month’s Budget. The productivity disappointment has been mirrored in more muted real average weekly earnings growth. The latest … Continued

Earnings Outlook
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Labour market
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2015

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The publication last month of the most reliable and comprehensive source on earnings presented a more muted picture of the early stages of the pay recovery than the more timely monthly series had indicated. More encouraging was the information below the headlines, particularly the fact that the recovery was strongest among the lowest earners. In … Continued

Earnings Outlook
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Pay

The RF Earnings Outlook Q2 2015

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Recent instalments of labour market data have painted a picture of steady but unspectacular growth in nominal wages, combined with zero inflation, producing real average weekly earnings growth above the pre-crisis trend. Labour productivity has started to rise but is essentially unchanged from its 2008 level, fuelling concerns that the pay recovery may prove short-lived … Continued

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